Emmen VS Vitesse

Emmen and Vitesse lock horns in this Dutch Eredivisie round 20 clash at De Oude Meerdijk early Sunday morning Beijing time. I cannot agree with the biggest, usually somewhat sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets here. Indeed, these bookies only see Vitesse as slim favorites here. The main rationale behind the odds is probably the standings., However, as most of my fans know at this point I will never let the league table fool me! Vitesse do have an edge in all areas of the game – even in terms of defensive quality despite the fact that they have had quite a lot of defensive problems this season and have, in fact, allowed one goal more than Emmen – 35 goals to be precise. However, in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) they have been unlucky. Their xGA is 31.87 but they have massive potential to improve especially in this area of the game. I do trust their coach and their defense has had a better structure in the most recent five games. Furthermore, the defenders have made less silly mistakes and the midfielders have also been more active lately than early season. Let's not forget that last season they finished in 6th place with a respectable 51 points to their account! 

There is no denying that their season has been a massive disappointment so far and they currently occupy the 13th place with 19 points and have netted the ball 23 times. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 26.87 and the number of expected points is 24.99. In their most recent match they took a fine win away from home over a dangerous team, Heerenveen, currently in the 8th place. They were clear underdogs in this clash according to the betting market but once again proved that the bookies should respect them more! Heerenveen did have 56% ball possession but Vitesse recorded many more goal attempts (22-10) and shots on goal – 8-2. I liked the way the shut down Heerenveen's offense! Even if they cannot quite reach the same level on Sunday they would still have a good chance of winning. I see them having a 46% chance to travel home with all three points! Before the Heerenveen game they were priced over 4.00 to beat Twente, a strong team in 5th place at the moment, and played well. They once again recorded more goal attempts and shots on goal than the opponent. It was a high-quality and open game and 2-2 was the final score.

Emmen, on the other hand were promoted from the second tier for this season and are a much smaller team than Vitesse in terms of historical success, financial resources and especially players' total market value according to Transfermarkt.com, a reliable German website. I would not be at all surprised to see them being relegated back to Eerste Divisie for next season as they lack quality to compete at this level in all areas of the game! They are in 16th place at the moment but I have them in 17th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They have grabbed just 15 points and their xPTS is 13.21. Especially their strikers are simply not skilled for this level.. I have lowered Vitesse's power rating from the in-depth preseason analysis but I still have them still in 9th place and we must take advantage of the bookies having lost faith in them. Emmen have won just one of their latest five games in this league and had luck on their side in this game. The team they defeated was PSV, a very good team, but I want to highlight that PSV were far from their normal level – with Emmen it was the opposite.. Emmen were surprisingly active and won 1-0 at home, boosted by ecstatic fans . However, the betting market seems to have over-reacted to this win. In their most recent match they were back at their normal level and lost to Waalwijk 0-2 away from home.