Portsmouth vs Barnsley

Portsmouth welcome Barnsley for this English League One round 30 battle at Fratton Park late Saturday evening Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played 26 matches so far. This is the third-highest level of English football and is undoubtedly the best 3rd tier on the planet! By pure class Barnsley are clearly the better team. They have an edge in all areas of the game. The biggest difference between the teams is in defensive quality. Indeed, the hosts have allowed 32 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is even higher 35.19 goals to be precise. Barnsley on the other hand, have allowed just 25 goals so far this season and their xGA is 24.65. 25 goals is clearly less than Plymouth, who currently top the standings! Indeed, their defense has an excellent structure, the defenders make few mistakes and they defend well as a team. Their manager with his team has definitely made the team play better than the list of players or the players' total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com would reflect.. Offensively Barnsley's edge is only moderate. They have netted the ball 35 times and their number of expected goals is 36.93. The hosts have scored 34 goals but their xG is 33.54.

Barnsley currently occupy the 6th place with 46 points in the pocket. They were relegated from the Championship after a very disappointing season 2021-2022 but have a genuine chance to be promoted back to the second tier for next season. I have the visitors in the 5th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 48.56 and the actual number. In their most recent match they beat Oxford United away from home 2-1 in a match that was expected to be very balanced according to the bookmakers. On the pitch Barnsley were slightly the better team. Before this Barnsley easily swept past Accrington at home. 3-1 was the final score. The win was a fully deserved one as the hosts had clearly over 50% ball possession and recorded more much more in xG as well as many more shots on goal, scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Portsmouth on the other hand have 37 points in the pocket but their xPTS is just 34.12. I cannot agree with the bookies who see them as favorites here offering odds of around 2.50 for them to take all three points. Based on my sophisticated analysis the visitors are narrow favorites and with the recommended bet (+0.5 goals handicap) on Barnsley my fans and I have an over 70% chance to win again betting on League One. Portsmouth were lame, especially offensively, in their most recent game losing to Peterborough - a team worse than Barsnley - 1-2 away from home after recording just one shot on target! They should improve - or get lucky - to win today..

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

朴茨茅斯欢迎巴恩斯利参加北京时间周六晚上在弗拉顿公园举行的英甲第30轮比赛。然而，实际上两支球队到目前为止已经踢了26场比赛。这是英国足球的第三高水平，毫无疑问是这个星球上最好的第三梯队!从纯粹的级别来看，巴恩斯利显然是更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都有优势。两队最大的不同在于防守质量。事实上，东道主已经失球32个，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)甚至更高，准确地说，是35.19个。另一方面，巴恩斯利本赛季到目前为止只丢了25球，他们的xGA是24.65。25个进球显然比目前排名第一的普利茅斯少!事实上，他们的防守结构很好，防守者很少出错，他们作为一个团队防守得很好。他们的经理和他的球队肯定比球员名单或球员的总市场价值更好，根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国网站，Transfermarkt.com会反映。在进攻端，巴恩斯利的优势不大。他们已经破门35次，他们的预期进球数是36.93个。东道主已经进了34个球，但他们的xG是33.54。

巴恩斯利目前以46分排名第六。在一个非常令人失望的2021-2022赛季后，他们从英冠降级，但下赛季有真正的机会升回第二级别。在我的实力评分中，客队排在第5位，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。他们的期望点数(xPTS)是48.56，实际数字。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场2-1击败了牛津联队，据博彩公司预计，这场比赛将非常平衡。在球场上，巴恩斯利的表现稍好一些。在此之前，巴恩斯利在主场轻松击败了阿灵顿。最终比分是3比1。这场胜利是当之无愧的，因为东道主的控球率明显超过50%，并且在xG中记录了更多，以及更多的射门、得分尝试、总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。另一方面，朴茨茅斯有37分，但他们的xPTS只有34.12分。我不同意博彩公司的说法，他们认为他们是最受欢迎的球员，为他们提供2.50左右的赔率，让他们获得全部三分。根据我的复杂分析，客队的胜算很小，加上推荐的赌注(+0.5个进球的障碍)，我和我的球迷赌英甲有超过70%的机会再次获胜。朴茨茅斯很差劲，特别是在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场1-2输给了彼得伯勒——一支比巴萨利更糟糕的球队，而且只有一次射正!他们应该进步，或者运气好，才能赢得今天的比赛。