In my opinion Union have really good chances to make 3 points in today's match up.

Union have good mental advantage before this game as they won last two home matches against Mainz - twice without too big problems (4:0 & 3:1).

Union is in incredible form - they won all 4 matches in 2023 and for sure they wants to go with momentum today. Team is full of confidence and coach Urs Fischer have available best possible line up and I expect another high quality performance today.

Union at home is superb - 6 wins in 8 matches and only 7 goals conceded, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede only 6.02. That should make big difference today.

Mainz on away conceded 16 goals in 9 matches, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 19.55. Today they are without first goalkeeper Zentner, key defender and team captain Widmer so it's really hard to imagine clean sheet for them. Defensive formation confidence is on very low level - they conceded 4 goals in last round match at home against Bayern. In addition to that they are without 3 strikers - Mustapha (5 matches), Burgzorg (10 matches) & Burkardt (10 matches).

I see great opportunity for Union to make win at home against depleted Mainz today.

在我看来，柏林联合在今天的比赛中很有机会拿下 3 分。

柏林联合在这场比赛之前拥有良好的优势，因为他们在最近两场主场比赛中都赢了美因茨——两次都没有太大的问题（4:0 和 3:1）。柏林联合的状态令人难以置信——他们在 2023 年赢得了所有 4 场比赛，并且他们肯定希望今天保持势头。球队充满信心，教练 Urs Fischer 拥有可用的最佳阵容，我期待今天的另一场高质量表现。

柏林联合在主场表现出色——8 场比赛 6 胜，只丢了 7 个球，但根据预期的失球模型，他们应该只丢 6.02 个球。这在今天应该会有很大的不同。

美因茨客场在 9 场比赛中丢了 16 个球，但根据预期的丢球模型，他们应该丢 19.55 个球。今天他们没有第一门将曾特纳、关键后卫和队长维德默，所以很难想象他们能零封对手。防守阵型信心处于非常低的水平——他们上轮主场对阵拜仁，丢了4球。除此之外，他们还缺少 3 名前锋——Mustapha（5 场比赛）、Burgzorg（10 场比赛）和 Burkardt（10 场比赛）。

我认为柏林联合今天有机会在主场战胜疲惫不堪的美因茨。