Newport VS Swindon Town

Newport welcome Swindon for this English League Two round 30 battle at Rodney Parade Saturday evening Beijing time. However, in reality the hosts have played 26 matches and Swindon 27 games so far. This is the the fourth-highest level of English football but players are still professional footballers and League Two is certainly the best 4th tier on the planet. By raw class Swindon are the better team but only marginally. In terms of defense the teams are equal in my view. Indeed, Newport have allowed 30 goals but in terms of expected goals allowed they should have conceded 28.02 goals. Swindon, on the other hand, have allowed 28 goals so far this season and their xGA is 28.13. Offensively Swindon do have an edge but the difference between teams is still much smaller than the number of goals scored would illustrate. Swindon have scored 36 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is 32.01. Newport, on the other hand, have netted the ball 24 goals so far and the hosts' xG is 29.12.

As my long-term fans probably already know, I will not let the standings fool me. Swindon currently occupy the 6th place with 42 points in the pocket. This was also their position at the end of the regular season 2021-2022. However, in my power ratings I have them in the 9th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is significantly lower than the actual 42 points. Moreover, 4-5 of their regular starters have played above their normal level so far this season and I do not believe this will go on much longer.. I also think their manager, S. Mildenhall, is an overrated guy. In their most recent game they faced Gillingham, a team in 23th place in this league with a total of 24 clubs. It was an entertaining game and Swindon were the better team but I still did not like their performance – especially defensively! They looked unorganized and even lazy at times in this match. Swindon were clear favorites in this clash on the betting market – priced below 2.00 to take all three points. Gillingham had scored just 11 goals just before this match – which clearly the lowest number in League Two. Before this they defeated Grissby at home and took a 5-0 win. This result probably affects the odds too much here. We must remember that Grimsby's D. Amos received a red card in the 34th minute when the score was 1-0 and both teams still had a genuine chance to win..

Newport, on the other hand, are in the 19th place and have grabbed 26 points but their xPTS is 32.12. Last season they finished in 11th place and I believe it is only a matter of time until they start climbing up the standings! In their most recent match they would have deserved at least a point but lost to a strong team, currently in third place in the league table. However, the hosts, Carlisle, took 2-0 win. Newport recorded more goal attempts (12-9) attacks and dangerous attacks. Carlisle did have one more shot on goal though. Before this Newport played four draws but were unlucky not to take some wins. For example on the second of January they would have deserved a win after recording more shots on goal, scoring attempts, passes, total passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks. The bookies do not seem to have an actual favorite here – at the time of writing Friday evening Beijing time at least.. In my view, Newport are the favorites and the +0.5 goals handicap has a very high chance of winning. Newport often play pretty defensive football even at home and the goal expectancy here is lower – and the chance of a draw higher - than the bookies think.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 58%. Only 1/6 of the hosts' latest games have gone over the 2.5 total goals line. Newport do not have the biggest crowd but their fans are still very loud and surely boost the team here as well!

北京时间周六晚上，纽波特迎战斯温顿，参加本届英格兰联赛第 2 轮第 30 轮的比赛。然而，实际上到目前为止，东道主已经打了 26 场比赛，斯文顿打了 27 场比赛。这是英格兰足球的第四高水平，但球员仍然是职业足球运动员，二级联赛无疑是这个星球上最好的第四级别。从原始级别来看，Swindon 是更好的团队，但只是勉强。在防守方面，我认为两支球队是平等的。事实上，纽波特已经丢了 30 个球，但就预期的失球数而言，他们应该丢 28.02 个球。另一方面，斯温顿本赛季到目前为止已经丢了 28 个球，他们的 xGA 是 28.13。在进攻端，斯温顿确实有优势，但球队之间的差距仍然比进球数所说明的要小得多。斯温顿打进了 36 个进球，但他们的预期进球数 (xG) 为 32.01。另一方面，纽波特到目前为止已经打进 24 球，而主队的 xG 是29.12.

正如我的长期粉丝可能已经知道的那样，我不会让排名蒙骗我。斯文登目前以 42 分排名第 6。这也是他们在 2021-2022 赛季常规赛结束时的位置。然而，在我的实力评级中，我将他们排在第 9 位，这反映了球队的纯等级。他们的预期分数（xPTS）明显低于实际的42分。此外，本赛季到目前为止，他们的常规先发球员中有 4-5 人的表现高于正常水平，我认为这种情况不会持续太久。我还认为他们的经理 S. Mildenhall 是一个被高估的人。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们面对的是吉林汉姆，这是一支在联盟中排名第 23 位的球队，共有 24 个俱乐部。这是一场有趣的比赛，斯温顿是更好的球队，但我仍然不喜欢他们的表现——尤其是在防守端！在这场比赛中，他们有时看起来没有组织，甚至懒惰。斯温顿在这场冲突中无疑是夺冠热门投注市场 - 定价低于 2.00 采取所有三个点。就在这场比赛之前，吉林汉姆只打进了 11 个进球——这显然是第二联赛中进球数最少的。在此之前，他们在主场击败格里斯比并以5-0获胜。这个结果可能对这里的赔率影响太大。我们必须记住，格里姆斯比的 D. Amos 在第 34 分钟吃到一张红牌，当时比分是 1-0，两队仍然有真正的机会取胜。

另一方面，纽波特排在第 19 位，得到 26 分，但他们的 xPTS 为 32.12。上个赛季他们排在第 11 位，我相信他们开始在积分榜上攀升只是时间问题！在最近的一场比赛中，他们至少应该得到一分，但输给了一支目前在联赛中排名第三的强队。然而，东道主卡莱尔以 2-0 获胜。纽波特记录了更多的进球尝试 (12-9) 攻击和危险的攻击。尽管如此，卡莱尔确实还有一次射门。在这个纽波特之前打了四场平局，但不幸没有取得一些胜利。例如，在 1 月 2 日，在记录了更多的射门次数、得分次数、传球次数、总传球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险的进攻次数之后，他们本应该赢得一场胜利。博彩公司在这里似乎没有真正的热门——至少在北京时间周五晚上撰写本文时是这样。在我看来，纽波特是最受欢迎的球队，+0.5 球的让分盘有很高的获胜机会。纽波特即使在主场也经常踢漂亮的防守足球，这里的进球预期比博彩公司认为的要低——平局的可能性要高。总进球数低于 2.5 个的概率为 58%。东道主最近的比赛中只有 1/6 超过了 2.5 个总进球数。纽波特的人群不是最多，但他们的球迷仍然非常吵闹，肯定也会为自己的球队加油！