Dijon vs Chamois Niortais (Niort)

Dijon and Niort lock horns in this French Ligue 2 round 22 battle at Stade Gaston Gérard early Saturday morning Beijing time. The biggest, often somewhat smart bookmakers with the largest stake limits make a lot of mistakes with their odds in this league and here have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity! The bookmakers offer Dijon odds of around 1.83-1.90 to send visitors home empty-handed. I must disagree with them - the hosts are clear favorites here! Even the biggest, often somewhat smart bookmakers with the largest stake limits make a lot of mistakes with their odds in this league, the second tier of French football, and here have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity. Based on my complex in-depth analysis Dijon have a 59% chance of winning. However, I do expect the odds on Dijon to drop before the match starts as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. Dijon's home record this season is not convincing but Ligue 2 on average has a higher home advantage than most European football leagues. Dijon's home fans are loyal and offer a big boost here against a lowly opponent. I expect Dijon to be aggressive here - even taking some risk later into the second half if the score is level..

We must realize, that Dijon have a very clear edge in all areas of the game. The biggest difference between the teams is in terms of defensive quality. Indeed, Niort have allowed a whopping 35 goals so far! Only, Saint Etienne, the biggest disappointment in this league this season, have conceded more goals. Niort's defense has almost all the possible problems – it lacks structure, pace, individual skill - and often the 100% motivation to fight for every ball.Furthermore, their offense is very lame as well and they have scored just 18 goals – the lowest number in this league. They do have potential for improvement and their last season was not that bad and there are some decent individuals in the team.. However, at the moment they are the worst team in this league – unlike the bookmakers seem to believe.. Away from home they have been abysmal winning just once and losing most games in this league this season. Their defense has been extremely shaky lately and they have allowed 10 goals in their last three matches! Moreover, they have lost four games in a row!

Before the four defeats Niort took a draw away from home against a lowly team, Rodez, through a 1-1 draw. However, Rodez were the better team in this match recording more goal attempts (11-6), shots on target (5-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They will most probably be relegated to Nacional for next season! Dijon, on the other hand, are in 16th place with 21 points and are in a fierce fight to avoid relegation. I believe they will and have them in the 14th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Their latest record in their most recent five games is not impressive but the opponents, except for Rodez have been much stronger than Niort! They won one of these five games but would have deserved more than the three points they actually grabbed.. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 25.42 and are clearly under-valued on the betting market today. Lastly I want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Dijon's squad is valued at around 21 million euros. Niort's players have a total market value of only around 12.7 million which is still too high!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

第戎和尼奥尔在法甲第22轮的比赛中对峙Gérard北京时间周六凌晨。最大的，通常有点聪明的博彩公司与最大的赌注限制犯了很多错误，他们的赔率在这个联盟，这里有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会!博彩公司为游客空手而归开出了1.83-1.90的赔率。我不同意他们的看法——这里的主持人显然是最受欢迎的!即使是最大的，通常有点聪明的博彩公司，在这个法国足球的第二梯队联赛中，他们的赔率也会犯很多错误，而这里有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会。根据我复杂的深入分析，第戎有59%的机会获胜。然而，我确实预计第戎的赔率在比赛开始前会下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上。第戎本赛季的主场战绩并不令人信服，但法甲联赛的平均主场优势高于大多数欧洲足球联赛。第戎的主场球迷是忠诚的，在这里面对一个地位较低的对手时，他们提供了很大的帮助。我预计第戎在这里会很有侵略性，如果比分持平，他们甚至会在下半场冒一些风险。

我们必须认识到，第戎在比赛的各个领域都有非常明显的优势。两队最大的不同在于防守质量。事实上，到目前为止，纽特已经失球35个!只有圣艾蒂安，本赛季联赛中最令人失望的球队，丢球更多。尼奥尔特的防守几乎存在所有可能的问题——缺乏结构、速度、个人技术——而且往往没有100%的动力去争取每一个球。此外，他们的进攻也很糟糕，他们只进了18个球——这是联赛中最少的。他们确实有提高的潜力，他们上个赛季也不是那么糟糕，球队中有一些不错的球员。然而，目前他们是联赛中最差的球队——不像博彩公司认为的那样。本赛季在客场，他们只赢了一场比赛，输掉了大部分比赛。他们的防守最近非常不稳定，在最近三场比赛中丢了10个球!而且，他们连输了四场比赛!

在四场失利之前，尼奥尔特在客场1-1战平了实力较弱的球队罗德兹。然而，罗德斯在这场比赛中表现更好，进球次数(11-6)，射正次数(5-2)，总传球次数，完成传球，进攻和危险进攻。他们下赛季很可能会降级到国家联赛!另一方面，第戎以21分排在第16位，正在为保级进行激烈的斗争。我相信他们会的，在我的实力评分中他们排在第14位，这反映了这支球队的纯粹水平。他们在最近五场比赛中的最新战绩并不令人印象深刻，但除了罗德斯之外，对手都比尼奥特强得多!他们赢了这五场比赛中的一场，但他们应该得到更多的积分。他们的预期点数(xPTS)为25.42，在今天的博彩市场上明显被低估。最后我想提到的是，根据德国一家知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，第戎队的身价约为2100万欧元。尼奥特球员的总市值只有1270万左右，这仍然太高了!