A quote from Leverkusen player Wirtz on Alonso:

“You definitely notice in the dressing room that you are now working with someone who, as a player, has won many titles, something that you dream of yourself,” Wirtz said. “It isn’t the worst thing in the world to have someone you can model yourself after, who can give you tips.”

Since Leverkusen appointed Xabi Alonso as a new manager they have climbed from the relegation zone to safety, and with this pace, they would be again fighting for Champions league positions. His stats in Bundesliga are 6-1-3 from 10 games, but the performances keep on improving all the time, and from the last 6 games they have won 5. The sole loss came last round v Dortmund by 0-2, but also in that match they were clearly the better side by eye, and the xG-statistics by winning all of them clearly, except goals.

Augsburg are fighting against relegation and their actual results mirror rather well their xG-data, although they could even in a lot deeper trouble. They are weak in the defense, in the attack, on their travels as well as at home where they have a 2-2-5 from 9 games. It is hardly convincing!

Recently they have won 1 match out last 10, against mediocre Monchengladbach side at home by 1-0.

Today they are also weakened by injuries, among the half-a dozen absent players is also their best scorer Demirovic who has scored 6 of their 23 goals, but is also been the 2nd best Augsburg player in creating chances behind Berisha.

Leverkusen have all their top attacking players available now that also Schick should be back in match fitness, but for this pick my main reasoning lies behind the fact the Leverkusen of Xabi Alonso is a completely different team compared to the one who started the season. It is a huge transformation and one that I would like to compare to the likes of Xavi at Barcelona and Arteta at Arsenal.

Leverkusen of today is effective, entertaining and a joy to follow. The recent matches with xG as a reminder below:

Why not settle for a straight win here, it is after all an away game. It is naturally up to you, but I see more expected value in the -1.5 and will record it here.

Good luck!