Platense VS Newells Old Boys

Platense host Newells Old Boys for this Argentinian Liga Profesional opening round at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Buenos Aires early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is of surprisingly low level as a whole by international standards - taking into account what a great football country Argentina are in terms of football culture and of – of course, winning the World Cup last month. Liga Profesional is a low-scoring league on average. In this match the goal expectancy is particularly low – mainly due to both teams style of play. Neither team has much offense power but both have a decent defense. None of both teams' latest four matches has gone over the 2.5 goals total line. In this match the probability of under 1.5 total goals being scored is 48%. The chance of a draw is high – 35%. This result would be enough for my fans and me to once again profit with the recommended +0.5 goal's handicap betting on this league that the bookies do not seem to know well.. Newells Old Boys do definitely have an edge in both areas of the game. Last season the hosts scored just 23 goals and in Liga Profesional – the third lowest number in the league. I definitely cannot agree with the biggest, often pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers that see the hosts here as favorites. The home advantage is still there but Platense do not have the best fans and they have not won any of their latest matches in front of their fans. Indeed, the visitors are the favorites with an around 40% chance of taking all three points. 

Platense had a somewhat disappointing last season and finished in 19th place with 32 points. They netted the ball just 23 times and allowed 25 goals. Newells Old Boys, on the other hand, were also probably not quite happy with their last season but still did much better than Platense and finished in 11th place. I would not be surprised to see them score more goals per game this season and finish in the top-10. Their goal difference was 26:22 and grabbed eight points more than Platense. We must also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Newells Old Boy's squad has a much higher total market value – 24.05 million euros which is still a bit low in my view. I would set the number at around 27-28 euros. Platense's players have a low total market value by Liga Profesional standards – just 11.88 million! The hosts have not won any of their latest eight competitive games and have taken just one win in their most recent 10 games – including two friendlies. They beat Velez Sarsfield 1-0 a month ago but did not perform too well. I do not believe in a big improvement this season. The visitors finished last season pretty well losing just one of their latest competitive games. 0-1 if i would have to pick an exact score.