Oud Heverlee (Leuven) VS Eupen

Leuven welcome Eupen for this Belgian Jupiler Pro league round 20 clash at Den Dreef in Heverlee. For anyone who follows this league there is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the favorites here. The question is: How clear are Leuven.. The biggest, often rather sharp bookmakers with largest stake limits offer odds of around 1.70 on the hosts to take all three points. These odds are lucrative and we will take them! The visitors are in 9th place with 29 points to their account and this is also their place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is higher though – over 30 points. They definitely have the potential to improve further.. This factor is, of course, not included in the current xPTS number but needs to be taken into account analyzing this match and their chances of succeeding during the rest of the season. I would not be too shocked if Leuven were to finish even in the top-8 in May and qualify for the UEFA Conference League Group! However, to do this well they would probably need to buy a few new players and have good luck with injuries..

In their most recent match – last Friday - Leuven took a fine win away from Westerlo 2-1 They were underdogs in this match priced around 3.30 to win on the betting market. The match was pretty balanced though. Westerlo had 57% and recorded a few more goal attempts. Both teams had four shots on target. Before this they were not quite at their best and did have some defensive problems and they got beaten at home by Kortrijk 2-3. The match was, however, a balanced one as a whole. Furthermore, before this they were very good away from home and took a point from Club Brugge as massive underdogs through a 1-1 draw. Let's not forget that Brugge are the reigning champions of Belgium and even qualified to the UEFA Champions League Play Offs! Brugge, unsurprisingly, were the better team but Leuven also had their chances and once again proved their offensive quality. They recorded 12 scoring attempts and five shots on goal.

Leuven have a clear edge over the visitors in all areas of the game! The hosts offense has indeed been even better than I estimated in my in-depth pre-season analysis. They have netted the ball 35 times so far in this league – this is more than Gent, currently on 5th place - and the same number that Antwerd (3rd place) have scored! They have a clearly over 60% chance to win this game. The visitors are in the 14th place with just 19 points and an abysmal score difference of 26:42. Only two (weak) teams have allowed more goals and Leuven should be able to score at least twice here. Eupen's offense is decent though and they too have a good chance of scoring here.. Their record away from home is very bad though – they have lost four of their latest six games on the road and the only win in these six matches came against the weakest team in this league, Seraing 1-0 after a not so impressive performance.  They have lost two of their latest games. Three days ago they faced St. Truiden at home and the final score was 0-2 but Eupen did have their chances too.. I want to mention that having just two full days to rest and prepare for this match is far from optimal in professional football - a small edge for the hosts who last played on the 13th of this month.. Before the St. Truidense game Eupen were quite lame and totally deservedly lost to Charleroi 1-2 at home.  

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乌德-赫弗利(鲁汶)VS尤彭

鲁汶欢迎尤彭参加在Heverlee的Den Dreef举行的比利时Jupiler职业联赛第20轮比赛。对于任何一个关注这个联赛的人来说，毫无疑问客队在这里是最受欢迎的。问题是:鲁汶有多清楚?规模最大、通常相当精明的博彩公司开出的赔率为1.70左右，赌东道主能拿下全部三分。这些机会是有利可图的，我们会抓住它们!客队以29分排名第9，这也是他们在我的实力评分中的位置，反映了球队的纯粹等级。他们的期望分数(xPTS)更高——超过30分。他们肯定有进一步提高的潜力。当然，这个因素不包括在当前的xPTS数据中，但需要考虑到分析这场比赛以及他们在赛季剩余时间的成功机会。如果鲁汶能在5月进入前8名，并获得欧足联联盟小组的资格，我也不会感到太震惊!然而，要想做到这一点，他们可能需要购买一些新球员，并在伤病方面取得好运气。

在他们最近的一场比赛中，也就是上周五，鲁汶以2-1的比分战胜了韦斯特洛，他们在这场比赛中处于下风，在博彩市场上的定价约为3.30欧元。不过这场比赛相当平衡。韦斯特洛的命中率为57%，他还尝试了几次射门。两队都有四次射正。在此之前，他们并不是处于最佳状态，确实存在一些防守问题，他们在主场被科尔特里克2-3击败。不过，这场比赛总体上是平衡的。此外，在此之前，他们在客场表现非常出色，并以1-1的比分从布鲁日俱乐部手中拿到了1分。让我们不要忘记布鲁日是比利时的卫冕冠军，甚至有资格进入欧洲冠军联赛附加赛!不出所料，布鲁日是更好的球队，但鲁汶也有机会，并再次证明了他们的进攻质量。他们有12次射门和5次射门。

鲁汶在比赛的各个方面都对客队有明显的优势!东道主的进攻确实比我在季前赛深度分析中估计的还要好。到目前为止，他们已经在联赛中进球35次——这比目前排名第五的根特还多——和安特卫德(排名第三)的进球次数相同!他们显然有超过60%的机会赢得这场比赛。客队仅积19分，以26:42的差距排在第14位。只有两支(弱队)球队失球更多，鲁汶应该至少能进两球。尤彭的进攻很不错，他们也有很好的进球机会。他们在客场的战绩非常糟糕——他们最近6场客场比赛输掉了4场，这6场比赛中唯一的一场胜利是对阵联赛中最弱的球队，在表现不太出色的情况下，他们以1-0战胜了西莱恩。他们在最近的比赛中输了两场。三天前他们在主场面对圣特鲁登，最终比分是0-2，但尤彭也有机会。我想说的是，只有整整两天的时间来休息和准备这场比赛，这在职业足球中远非最佳状态——对于东道主来说，这是一个小小的优势，他们上一次比赛是在本月13日。在与圣特鲁伊登塞的比赛之前，尤彭的表现相当糟糕，在主场1-2输给沙勒罗瓦是活该。