Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes

Gil Vicente and Vitoria Guimaraes lock horns in this Liga Portugal round 16 clash at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos early Tuesday morning Beijing time. Gil Vicente are having an incredibly bad season, especially in this league. A team that finished surprisingly high - 5th with 51 points to their account last season – are now in the 16th place in the standings. However, last season they were somewhat lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They played also in the UEFA Conference League earlier this season but were eventually completely crushed by a Dutch team. AZ Almaar who are not even in the top-3 in the Netherlands by pure class. Gil Vicente lost 1-6 on aggregate. Even at this point, several months ago, I was thinking that their season will probably be much worse than the bookies, most football analysts or the hosts' fans thought.. Once again they are over-rated by the biggest, often quite smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. They are solid favorites on the betting market – priced around 2.40 to win. If they do not improve from the current 16th place they will have to fight against a LigaPortugal2 team to keep their place at the highest level! Well, they definitely do have potential to improve but would probably need 2-3 new players – preferably guys with goal-scoring capabilities – to significantly climb up in the standings.. I think the bookmakers give too much emphasis to their potential. They have scored just 12 goals and that is also the number of points they have grabbed. Their defense has been leaky – as the opponents have scored 22 goals against them so far in this league. I see the visitors as narrow favorites here and the odds on them not losing (+0.5 goals handicap) are lucrative indeed!

Gil Vicente have lost four of their latest five games in Liga Portugal. In The League Cup they did take two wins though but failed to really impress me.. They beat Portimonense 3-0 away from home but the hosts had 57% ball possession and also recorded more shots on goal,scoring attempts and attacks. The final score is very misleading. Against Nacional – that play in Liga Portugal2 – they won 2-0 at home but the match was surprisingly balanced. Against Colvilha – another Liga Portugal2 team - they played a rather disappointing 2-2 draw away from home. In their most recent match they lost to Boavista, a mediocre team currently in 11th place, 0-1 on the road but played at a decent level and a draw would have been a justified result. Even so, their offense was once again lame – lacking speed and creativity. The visitors, on the other hand, have not taken a win for a while but do have an edge in all areas of the game. They have, however, lost just three of their latest 15 games! Their defense has been extremely solid this season – the have allowed just 16 goals. This is less than a strong team Sporting CP that have done pretty well even in the Champions League – especially last season. Their offense is not very strong and seeing many goals to be scored here would be a surprise. They often play quite defensive football, particularly away from home. In their most recent match they challenged the 3rd-best team in this league well and were leading 2-0 away from home as massive underdogs according to the bookies. However, Braga scored three late goals to win this Taca de Portugal 1/8-final clash. They are currently in the 6th place in the league table with 24 points and were good last season too finishing in 6th place with 48 points in the pocket and would deserve more respect on the betting market today!