In my opinion Wigan have really good chances to avoid loss in today's match up.

First match between both teams 10 days ago in Luton finished with draw 1:1 and today we will see replay on Wigan stadium. Wigan coming for this game with good mental advantage as they didn't lost in last 3 matches in a row against Luton.

I really don't see such big difference between both teams. After half season in Championship currently Luton is on 9th place. According to the expected goals scored/conceded models they should be ranked to places lower. On the other hand Wigan currently is on last position in league table (24th), but according to the models they should be 7 places higher. It's huge difference. Wigan plays really much better than their results shows.

Wigan at the weekend played on away on hard ground against Cardiff and avoided loss. Match finished with draw 1:1, but Wigan deserved for something more: expected goals scored for Wigan 2.08, for Cardiff 1.06. Luton coming for this game in very bad mood after extremely painful loss at home against WBA. Luton had a lead 2:0, but lost that game 2:3. For sure that hurts their confidence.

Luton manager Edwards planning to making some changes in squad. In first match between both teams he switched 5 players. We saw all key players against WBA so today probably he will give rest for couple stars. He said: "There’ll be a couple of changes."

On those circumstances I believe Wigan have bigger chances than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

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在我看来，维甘有很大的机会在今天的比赛中避免输球。

10天前两队在卢顿的第一场比赛以1:1平局结束，今天我们将在维冈球场观看重赛。维甘带着良好的心理优势来参加这场比赛，因为他们在过去3场对阵卢顿的比赛中没有输球。

我真的看不出两队之间有这么大的区别。经过半个赛季的英冠联赛，卢顿目前排名第九。根据预期进球/失球模型，他们应该排在更低的位置。另一方面，维甘目前在积分榜上排名最后(第24位)，但根据模型，他们应该高出7位。这是巨大的差异。维甘的表现比他们的结果要好得多。

维甘在周末客场对阵加的夫，避免了输球。比赛以1:1的平局结束，但是维甘队应该得到更多的东西:维甘队的预期进球数为2.08，卡迪夫队的预期进球数为1.06。卢顿在主场痛失WBA后，心情非常糟糕。卢顿2:0领先，但2:3输掉了那场比赛。这肯定会伤害他们的信心。

卢顿主帅爱德华兹计划在阵容上做一些改变。在两队的第一场比赛中，他换了5名队员。我们在对阵WBA的比赛中看到了所有的关键球员，所以今天他可能会让一些球星休息。他说:“会有一些变化。”

在这种情况下，我相信维甘的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。