High odds for bottom final!
2023-01-16

Jarkko

外籍分析师

西甲

01/17 04:00

已完赛

解读理由:

In the srart of the season I was convinced that Cadiz would be the weakest team in the league, but Elche has proved it not to be true as they have been horrendous all season, keep on changing coaches without seeing that their player material is not up to this standard, and especially the class of the defenders is ridiculously low.

Cadiz are next to bottom with 15 points from 16 games. It is not much, even if it is too much compared to their performances and it is widely accepted that they should have about 10 or 11 points in the bag. Still, having these points and staying alive in the relegation fight keeps the morale and working ethics high. They are only 2 points from safety, and they are 1 of the about teams who try to fight against relegation.

Elche have 4 points! After 16 rounds they are without a win, and even if they are not mathematically relegated for some time they would need to win half of their remaining games to stay in the league, and it is extremely hard to see that happening.

The goal expectation data gives them almost 10 points in the expected points table and they would be hand in hand with Cadiz, but that would be a big mistake to believe so as it is explained by the fact they have been trailing most of the minutes played in the league, and they have been desperately seeking for a goal.

Not with much success. Elche have scored 10 goals, which is about as expected, they have conceded 34 goals which is a huge number, but they have actually overperformed there as there could be as many as 40 goals conceded!

There has been occasionally some light in the Cadiz performances. A look below at recent games:

After the break they did have a decent game v Almeria, but especially the latest win over Valencia brings some needed confidence in the defense as they kept the strong Valencian side far from scoring for the full 90 minutes. Valencia had 11 shots on goal, but as that created in total only half a goal worth of goal expectation. And they have one the top keepers in goal to take care of these shots in Ledesma.

As neither of the has proved to able to score it may seem strange that I see this as goal-scoring game. The reason for that is that despite basically scoring 0 goals there still are decent strikers in both teams, and as this is extremely important for Cadiz to win there should be pace and effort, mistakes and passion, goals and cards. There are not many games Cadiz can budget to win, and even if there are still more than half the season to go matches like these do often define the destiny of the remains of the season.

Elche miss defender Bigas, they signed Carmona from the bench of Sevilla and there is a reason he did not play there, he is very prone to errors, and with a very limited amount of minutes he might even be the weakest link of the extremely weak Elche defense.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在赛季的最后阶段,我确信加的斯会是联赛中最弱的球队,但埃尔切证明了这不是真的,因为他们整个赛季都很糟糕,不停地换教练,却没有看到他们的球员素质达不到这个标准,尤其是后卫的水平低得离谱。

加的斯紧随其后,16场比赛积15分。这不算多,即使与他们的表现相比太多了,人们普遍认为他们应该有10分或11分。尽管如此,拥有这些分数,并在保级战中保持活力,保持士气和职业道德高涨。他们距离保级只有2分的距离,他们是试图为保级而战的球队之一。

埃尔切得了4分!16轮过后,他们没有一场胜利,即使他们在一段时间内没有从数学上降级,他们也需要赢得剩下比赛的一半才能留在联赛中,而这种情况发生是极其困难的。

进球预期数据给了他们将近10分的积分,他们将与加的斯齐名,但这将是一个很大的错误,因为他们在联赛中大部分时间都落后于对手,他们一直在拼命地寻找进球。

但并不太成功。埃尔切已经进了10个球,这和预期的差不多,他们已经丢了34个球,这是一个巨大的数字,但他们实际上表现得更好,因为他们可能会丢40个球!

在加的斯的表演中偶尔会有一些亮点。让我们看看最近的比赛:

在中场休息后,他们在对阵阿尔梅里亚的比赛中表现不错,但特别是最近战胜瓦伦西亚的比赛给他们的防守带来了一些必要的信心,因为他们让强大的瓦伦西亚在整整90分钟里都没有进球。瓦伦西亚有11次射门,但这只创造了半个进球的期望。莱德斯马有一名顶级门将负责处理这些射门。

由于这两支球队都没有进球,我认为这是一款进球游戏似乎有些奇怪。原因是,尽管两支球队基本上都没有进球,但仍有出色的前锋,这对加的斯的胜利至关重要,必须有速度和努力,失误和激情,进球和卡片。加的斯没有多少比赛可以预算获胜,即使还有半个多赛季,像这样的比赛通常会决定赛季剩余时间的命运。

埃尔切错过了后卫比加斯,他们从塞维利亚签下了替补席上的卡莫纳,他没有在那里比赛是有原因的,他很容易犯错,而且他的出场时间非常有限,甚至可能是埃尔切极其薄弱的防守中最薄弱的一环。


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