Real Madrid VS Barcelona

Real Madrid and Barcelona lock horns in this Supercopa de España (Spanish Super Cup) final at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, early Monday morning Beijing time. The biggest, mostly somewhat sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers see Barcelona as the favorites here offering odds of around 2.45 for them to win during the 90 minutes of play. I cannot quite agree with this estimation! By pure class there is very little between the two teams at the moment. However, we must not forget that Real have won many more trophies in recent years! They simply seem to have this ”winning mentality” - this applies especially to their experienced super stars like Modric who does not show any signs of slowing down at a ripe age of 37! Together with the experienced GermanToni Kroos, who always works very hard, they dominate the midfield in most of Real Madrid's games! I expect to be very good here as well! Karim Benzema, the Ballon d'or winner is expected to score once again against Barcelona's sometimes shaky defense – against the very best teams in particular! Their defense has not been as convincing as the number of goals allowed in LaLiga- six - would suggest.. Their number of goals allowed (xGA) is 14.02! In the UEFA Champions League even a weak team at this level – Plzen from the Czech Republic  - scored two goals in one match against them.. Real Madrid are the reigning Champions League and Spanish champions and would earn more respect for their achievements that are superior compared to Barclona in recent years. On their way to the final Real beat PSG – boosted by Messi, Nymar and Mbappe as well as many other world-class players. They also defeated Manchester City, one of the best teams in the world, after a stunning comeback in the dying moments of the 2nd leg at home! In the final they needed some luck and many great saves from their superb Belgian goalkeeper, Thibaut Courtois,30, to beat Liverpool 1-0 though. When the situation is straightforward – and Real are close to winning yet another trophy – they are often at their very best! The odds of around 2.80 for them to win in regulation time are definitely too high! I expect an open and entertaining battle in this competition that is not the main priority for either team. The probability of over 2.5 total goals (90 mins) is 62%.

When the teams last met last autumn Real proved their class beating Barcelona 3-1 at home. Let's also remember that Real Madrid were much better than Barcelona in the Champions League last autumn and comfortably qualified for the Play Offs. Barcelona, on the other hand, for the second time in a row failed to qualify and will have to play in the Europa League where they were kicked out by Frankfurt,  a German club, last spring. Barcelona lost the second leg at home making their fans very angry. What a disappointment  Barca have been in the Champions League! They lost three games in the Champions League Group C and took just seven points and had a score difference of 12:12. They have several young and very talented players and the future does, after many years of struggling - by their standards – look pretty bright.. They need more experience and have to learn to play more organized and pragmatic football to beat big teams in important games with a lot at stake.. They have never fully recovered from losing Messi to PSG due to financial difficulties. At the moment they are not quite ready but of course do have a chance to win LaLiga.. They do top the standings with 41 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 34.54. However, Real Madrid, too, have been lucky in terms of xPTS though. Barcelona have netted the ball 41 times - Real have scored 36 times in LaLiga but their number of expected goals (xG) is bigger. In their most recent match they beat Valencia 2-1 in the Super Cup semi-final battle at King Fahd International Stadium.. Valencia are a pretty dangerous team but Real did deserve the win. Real has close to 60% ball possession and recorded many more scoring chances (16-12), shots on goal (6-3), total passes, completed passes, and attacks as well. Before this they lost to a quite strong team, Villarreal (4th in LaLiga) , 1-2 away from home. Villarral recorded 2.34 in xG, Real managed 2.32. One can't say that the victory was undeserved but the match could easily have gone either way! Both teams had their good moments during the game and several chances to score. Villarreal played at their best level for about 75 minutes of the match but Real Madrid, as a whole, were far from their best level of football.. They were strangely passive - even somewhat lazy - for long periods of time and seemed to be just waiting for Benzema or Vinicius Junior to score. Before this they won three games in a row and I see them as narrow favorites to win LaLiga - again! Barcelona also needed penalties to beat Real Betis 3-2 as big favorites on the betting market, priced around 1.40 to win in regulation time. They did have 61% ball possession but Betis recorded more scoring attempts and shots on target! I was not impressed by their performance and we could witness some defensive weaknesses in this clash.

Before the Betis game Barca beat Atletico Madrid - who have clearly declined since becoming the Spanish champions back in 2021 -  in LaLiga away from home 0-1. They did not – however, deserve this win as the hosts recorded 2.09 in xG – Barcelona's number was just 1.13! Moreover, Atletico recorded many more scoring chances (20-10), shots on goal (5-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks as well. Before this Xavi, an overrated coach in my view, rotated the squad in a Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup) clash but their performance was still pretty embarrassing! Real's awesome coach Ancelotti has massive experience in winning – with several clubs – and is much better than the inexperienced Xaxi in my view. Xavi was a Barca legend as a player but is not skilled enough in terms of tactics yet.. Barca needed extra time to beat FC Intercity, a smaller team by players total market value according to Transfermarkt.com than some Finnish Veikkausliiga clubs!  Fati scored the 4-3 winning goal in the 103th minute. FC Intercity play in Primera RFEF Group 2 and Barca were priced around 1.05 to win during the 90 minutes of play! Furthermore, before this they let the home fans down and only managed to take a draw against Espanyol, a team currently in 19th place in LaLga priced around 1.20 to win by the bookmakers! They did create more than Espanyol in xG though but once again failed to meet the expectations! Lastly I want to mention that Real played against Valencia on the 11th of this month and have had one more day than Barca to rest and prepare for this battle. This is a factor that perhaps has not been given enough emphasis on the betting market..

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皇家马德里VS巴塞罗那

北京时间周一凌晨，在沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得法赫德国王国际体育场举行的西班牙超级杯决赛中，皇家马德里和巴塞罗那激战一场。在90分钟的比赛中，接受顾客最大赌注的最大的、大多有点精明的博彩公司将巴塞罗那视为最受欢迎的球队，为他们提供约2.45的赔率。我不能完全同意这个估计!从纯粹的级别来看，两队之间的差距非常小。然而，我们不能忘记，皇马在最近几年赢得了更多的奖杯!他们似乎只是有这种“胜利心态”——这尤其适用于他们的经验丰富的超级球星，比如莫德里奇，他在37岁的成熟年龄没有表现出任何放缓的迹象!加上经验丰富的德国球员托尼·克罗斯，他总是非常努力，他们在皇马的大部分比赛中统治着中场!我希望在这里也能做得很好!卡里姆·本泽马，金球奖得主有望再次在巴塞罗那有时不稳定的防守中进球，尤其是对阵最好的球队!他们的防守并不像在西甲联赛中被允许进球的数量(6个)那样令人信服。他们的允许进球数(xGA)是14.02!在欧冠联赛中，即使是在这个级别的弱队——来自捷克的Plzen。在一场比赛中对他们进了两个球。皇马是欧冠和西甲的卫冕冠军，他们近年来取得的成就比巴萨更出色，他们将赢得更多的尊重。在通往决赛的路上，皇马击败了巴黎圣日耳曼——梅西、内马尔和姆巴佩以及许多其他世界级球员的推动下。他们还击败了世界上最好的球队之一曼城，在主场第二回合的最后时刻，他们惊人地逆转了!在决赛中，他们需要一些运气，以及30岁的比利时门将库尔图瓦的许多精彩扑救，才能以1-0击败利物浦。当形势明朗的时候——皇马即将赢得另一座奖杯——他们通常处于最佳状态!他们在规定时间内获胜的赔率约为2.80，这绝对太高了!我希望在这场比赛中有一场开放而有趣的战斗，这不是两队的主要优先事项。总进球数超过2.5球(90分钟)的概率为62%。

两队上一次交锋是在去年秋天，皇马主场3-1击败巴萨，证明了自己的实力。让我们也记住，在去年秋天的欧冠联赛中，皇马比巴萨强得多，轻松获得了附加赛的资格。另一方面，巴塞罗那连续第二次未能晋级，他们将不得不参加欧联杯，在那里他们被法兰克福踢出局， 一家德国俱乐部，去年春天。巴塞罗那在主场输掉了第二回合比赛，这让他们的球迷非常愤怒。真令人失望。巴萨已经进入欧冠了!他们在欧冠C组输掉了三场比赛，只拿到了7分，比分差距为12:12。他们有几名年轻而有天赋的球员，在经过多年的奋斗之后，以他们的标准来看，他们的未来看起来相当光明。他们需要更多的经验，必须学会踢更有组织和务实的足球，才能在事关重大的重要比赛中击败强队。由于财政困难，梅西转会巴黎圣日耳曼队，他们从未完全恢复过来。目前他们还没有完全准备好，但当然他们有机会赢得西甲冠军。他们以41分位居榜首，但他们的期望得分(xPTS)只有34.54分。然而，皇马在xPTS方面也很幸运。巴塞罗那已经进了41次球——皇马在西甲已经进了36次球，但是他们的预期进球数(xG)更大。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在法赫德国王国际球场的超级杯半决赛中以2-1击败瓦伦西亚。瓦伦西亚是一支相当危险的球队，但皇马确实值得赢球。皇马拥有近60%的控球率，并且记录了更多的得分机会(16-12)，射门(6-3)，总传球，完成传球和进攻。在此之前，他们在客场1-2输给了一支相当强大的球队比利亚雷亚尔(西甲第四)。比利亚拉尔2.34次，皇马2.32次。我们不能说这场胜利是不应得的，但是这场比赛很容易向任何一方发展!两队在比赛中都有不错的表现，也都有得分的机会。比利亚雷亚尔在75分钟的比赛中发挥了他们的最佳水平，但皇马，作为一个整体，远远没有达到他们的最佳水平。他们在很长一段时间里都表现得很被动，甚至有些懒惰，似乎只是在等待本泽马或维尼修斯进球。在此之前，他们赢了三场比赛，我认为他们是最有希望赢得西甲冠军的球队——再一次!巴萨也需要点球来3-2击败皇家贝蒂斯，这是博彩市场上的大热门，在常规时间内赢得比赛的价格约为1.40。他们确实有61%的控球率，但贝蒂斯的得分次数和射正次数更多!他们的表现并没有给我留下深刻的印象，我们可以在这场比赛中看到一些防守上的弱点。

在贝蒂斯的比赛之前，巴萨击败了马德里竞技——自2021年成为西甲冠军以来，马德里竞技的实力明显下降。西甲客场0-1。然而，他们并没有得到这场胜利，因为东道主的xG值为2.09，而巴塞罗那的xG值只有1.13!此外，马竞记录了更多的得分机会(20-10)、射门(5-2)、总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。在此之前，哈维，一个在我看来被高估的教练，在一场国王杯(西班牙杯)的比赛中轮换了阵容，但他们的表现仍然相当尴尬!皇马令人敬畏的教练安切洛蒂在几家俱乐部都有丰富的胜利经验，在我看来，他比经验不足的萨西要好得多。哈维是巴萨的传奇球员，但在战术方面还不够熟练。巴萨需要额外的时间来击败FC Intercity，根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，这支球队的球员总市值比一些芬兰Veikkausliiga俱乐部还要小!法蒂在第103分钟打进了4-3制胜球。FC在Primera RFEF第二组的城际比赛中，巴萨在90分钟的比赛中获胜的价格大约是1.05 !此外，在此之前，他们让主场球迷失望了，只和西班牙人打平了，这支球队目前在西甲联赛中排名第19位，博彩公司预测他们赢球的赔率约为1.20 !他们在xG上确实比西班牙人创造了更多的机会，但再次未能达到预期!最后我想说的是，皇马在本月11日对阵瓦伦西亚，他们比巴萨多了一天的休息时间和备战时间。这是一个因素，也许没有给予博彩市场足够的重视。