Getafe VS Espanyol

Getafe and Espanyol lock horns in this Spanish LaLiga round 17 clash at Coliseum Alfonso Perez Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the 2nd-best league in the world, after the English Premier League, but this match is probably not going to be a very entertaining match between these two pretty lowly teams with rather limited goal-scoring potential..  However, betting-wise it is a very interesting game! Goal expectancy here is indeed even lower than the betting market estimates. The probability of under 1.5 total goals being scored is 46%. A draw is a much more probable result here than on average in LaLiga. The chance of neither team being able to win is 35%.. Getafe have scored just 15 goals so far in this league and do not usually play particularly aggressive football even at their stadium.. The 15 goals is one of the lowest number of goals in LaLiga. Moreover, their number of expected goals (xG) is even lower – 12.14! It is hard to say anything overly positive about their offense.. It lacks speed, creativity and passing accuracy – especially against teams that defend well as a team.. Well, I must admit that they do have a decent structure in their attacks though but their offensive players really struggle to create enough scoring chances at this level..The same was true already last season when they scored just 33 goals and finished in 15th place. They have grabbed 17 points so far and are in the 13th place in the league table. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is a little lower – 16.23. However, 7-8 of their regular starters have played above their normal level so far this season. Getafe are in only 17th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. I would not be at all surprised to see them relegated to LaLiga2 for next season. Even buying a new striker might not save them from this sad fate..

Getafe suffered a defeat in the hands of Sevilla, currently in 17th place, in their most recent game. Sevilla did deserve the 2-1 home win after 58% ball possession and creating more in expected goals. Both teams managed 11 goal attempts but Sevilla recorded many more shots on goal, total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they also lost – this time against Levante, a team from LaLiga2. It was a Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup) clash. The hosts, Levante, took a fully deserved 3-2 win after 62% ball possession. They also recorded many more shots on target, total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. I was not impressed by Getafe's performance in either of these two games.. Before this they were strong though and beat Mallorca 2-0 at home as favorites according to the betting market. However, Mallorca were much weaker than normally in this game and I would not give this win too much emphasis.. Espanyol were better than Getafe already last season and I do rate the visitors higher than the hosts in my power rating.. 

Indeed, I will not let the league table fool me here – as my fans know! Espanyol are in the 19th place with just 14 points. However, in terms of xPTS they would have deserved many more - 21.89 points to be precise! Their offense has clearly more firepower than Getafe's – they have scored 19 goals but their xG is 22.12. Espanyol have allowed 25 but their number of expected goals allowed is 22.12. Indeed, in terms of defensive quality the teams are pretty equal. In my view Espanyol have much more potential of the two teams to improve their game – even without buying new players. They are in significantly better form – having avoided a defeat in five of their most recent games! They even robbed a point from Barcelona away from home through a 1-1 draw on the 31th of December! What a great achievement against a team that currently top the standings! Barcelona were massive favorites in this game and did record more in xG but Espanyol proved that they can play at a very high level - even away from home!  In their most recent match they were not quite at their best but still took a point from Girona, currently in 11th place at home. It was a 2-2 draw after a balanced clash. Before this they took a fully deserved 3-1 win at home against Celta Vigo in a Copa del Rey match. They recorded six shots on goal – the visitors' number was just two. They also created many more attacks and dangerous attacks. According to the bookies they were the underdogs in this game but clearly this was definitely not the case in real action! Once again they are undervalued on the betting market.. In my view Espanyol are narrow favorites here and we will bet on them not lose (+0.5 goals handicap) we have a high chance of extending the awesome streaks - in LaLiga we have won five bets in a row - 12/13 of the latest picks have been won!

GOOD LUCK!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

赫塔菲VS西班牙人

北京时间周日晚上，赫塔菲和西班牙人在阿方索佩雷斯体育馆进行了西甲第17轮的比赛。这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超联赛，但这场比赛对于这两支进球潜力有限的低档球队来说可能不会是一场很有娱乐性的比赛。然而，从赌博的角度来看，这是一个非常有趣的游戏!这里的进球预期确实比博彩市场的预期还要低。总进球数在1.5球以下的概率为46%。与西甲联赛的平均水平相比，这里平局的可能性要大得多。两队都不能获胜的概率是35%..到目前为止，赫塔菲在这个联赛中只进了15个球，即使在他们的球场上，他们通常也不会踢出特别有侵略性的足球。这15个进球是西甲联赛中最少的进球之一。此外，他们的预期进球数(xG)甚至更低——12.14!很难对他们的进攻做出任何过于积极的评价。它缺乏速度、创造力和传球的准确性——尤其是面对防守出色的球队时。我必须承认，他们的进攻结构确实不错，但他们的进攻球员真的很难创造足够的进球机会，上个赛季也是如此，他们只进了33个球，排在第15位。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了17分，在积分榜上排名第13位。他们的期望点数(xPTS)略低——16.23。然而，本赛季到目前为止，他们有7-8名常规首发球员的表现高于正常水平。赫塔菲在我的实力评分中只排在第17位，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。如果他们下赛季降级到西甲联赛，我一点也不惊讶。即使买一名新前锋也无法挽救他们的悲惨命运。

赫塔菲在最近的一场比赛中输给了目前排名第17位的塞维利亚。塞维利亚在58%的控球率和创造更多预期进球后，确实应该在主场2-1获胜。两支球队都有11次射门尝试，但塞维利亚的射门次数、总传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数更多。在此之前，他们也输了，这次是对阵来自拉利加的莱万特队。这是一场西班牙国王杯的比赛。东道主莱万特在62%的控球率下以3比2完胜。他们还记录了更多的射正、总传球、进攻和危险进攻。我对赫塔菲在这两场比赛中的表现都没有印象。在此之前，他们实力强大，在主场2-0击败马洛卡，成为博彩市场的热门。然而，马洛卡在这场比赛中表现得比平时弱得多，我不会过分强调这场胜利。上赛季西班牙人已经比赫塔菲强了，我对客队的评价确实比主队高。

事实上，我不会让排名欺骗我——我的球迷都知道!西班牙人仅积14分，排在第19位。然而，就xPTS而言，他们应该得到更多——准确地说是21.89分!他们的进攻火力显然比赫塔菲更强——他们已经进了19个球，但他们的xG是22.12。西班牙人失球25个，但他们的预期失球数是22.12个。事实上，就防守质量而言，两队不相上下。在我看来，西班牙人有更大的潜力来提高他们的比赛——即使不购买新球员。他们的状态明显更好——在最近的五场比赛中避免了一场失败!12月31日，他们甚至在客场1-1逼平了巴萨1分!面对一支目前排名第一的球队，这是多么伟大的成就啊!巴塞罗那在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的，并且在xG上也有更多的记录，但是西班牙人证明了他们可以踢出非常高的水平——即使在客场!在最近的一场比赛中，他们并不是处于最佳状态，但仍然从目前主场排名第11位的赫罗纳手中拿到了一分。在一场势均力敌的交锋后，双方以2-2战平。在此之前，他们在国王杯主场3-1战胜维戈塞尔塔，取得了当之无愧的胜利。他们有6次射门，而客队只有2次。他们还制造了更多的攻击和危险的攻击。根据博彩公司的说法，他们在这场比赛中处于下风，但显然在实际行动中情况并非如此!它们在博彩市场上又一次被低估了。在我看来，西班牙人在这里是最受欢迎的，我们打赌他们不会输(+0.5个进球的障碍)，我们有很大的机会延续惊人的连胜——在西甲，我们已经连续赢了5次赌注——12/13的最新选择已经赢了!

< / p > < p >祝你好运!