Tottenham vs Arsenal

Tottenham welcome Arsenal for this English Premier League Derby at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London very early on Monday Beijing time. I expect a fine match to watch - and a great match to bet on between these two very good teams. Arsenal currently top the standings with 44 points and have lost just once match so far this season in the Premier League. Yes, they have improved a lot from last season but have also had luck on their side in many matches so far. I still do not rate them as the best team in the best league in the world by pure class in my power rating – especially not without one of their most important players – Gabriel Jesus who joined the team from Manchester City. He has a long-term injury and missing him massively affects Arsenal's offense! I think the betting market does not fully understand how important he is as he has not been too effective in scoring but has a major role in assisting and building attacks! Arsenal have taken 8.89 more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have scored six more goals than their number of expected goals (xG) would suggest and have also conceded less goals than the number of expected goals allowed (xGA) indicates. As a result, they are once again clearly over-valued on the betting market. The odds on them to win are around 2.25 which is definitely too low!

Yes, Arsenal  are a better team than Tottenham but without Jesus in terms of offense the teams are more or less equal. Defensively Arsenal have a clear edge though. The home advantage is substantial and taking this factor into account this match is a coin toss (50-50%) without a favorite. The smart bet is go with the hosts not losing. The odds on Tottenham have been dropping today as smart money is piling up on the hosts.. Furthermore, Arsenal were not overly convincing in their most recent match. It was a home game against Newcastle who are of course a good team this season though. Even so, it was surprising to see the visitors recording a little more in xG! Newcastle were very defensive and Arsenal's lack of quality strikers was easy to see. I expect Tottenham's manager Conte to be pretty cautious even at home and aim to shut down Arsenal's offense.. Tottenham were very good in their most recent game crushing a decent team Crystal Palace 4-0 away from home. This must be a huge boost for the team!  Yes, Tottenham have been a bit erratic this season but usually raise their level for big games and we must also remember that they have done very well against Arsenal at home in recent years! The under-rated hosts are in 5th place and fight hard for the top-4 position with Newcastle. Lastly I want to say that I trust Conte more than Arsenal's manager Arteta.

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热刺vs阿森纳

北京时间周一凌晨，在伦敦托特纳姆热刺球场，托特纳姆热刺欢迎阿森纳参加这场英超德比。我期待观看一场精彩的比赛，期待这两支优秀球队之间的精彩对决。阿森纳目前以44分高居积分榜首位，本赛季到目前为止在英超联赛中只输过一场比赛。是的，他们比上赛季进步了很多，但到目前为止，他们在很多比赛中都运气不错。在我的实力评分中，我仍然不认为他们是世界上最好的联赛中最好的球队，尤其是他们最重要的球员之一加布里埃尔·热苏斯没有从曼城加盟球队。他有长期的伤病，失去他会严重影响阿森纳的进攻!我认为博彩市场并没有完全理解他的重要性，因为他在得分方面并不太有效，但在协助和组织进攻方面发挥了重要作用!阿森纳在预期积分(xPTS)方面比他们应得的多了8.89分。他们的进球数比预期进球数(xG)多6个，失球数也比预期允许进球数(xGA)少。结果，它们在博彩市场上再次明显被高估。他们获胜的赔率大约是2.25，这绝对太低了!

是的，阿森纳是一支比热刺更好的球队，但在进攻方面，没有热苏斯，两队或多或少旗鼓相当。在防守端阿森纳有明显的优势。主场优势是巨大的，考虑到这个因素，这场比赛是抛硬币(50-50%)，没有最喜欢的一方。聪明的赌注是东道主不会输。今天托特纳姆热刺夺冠的赔率一直在下降，因为聪明的钱越来越多地押在了东道主身上。此外，阿森纳在最近的一场比赛中表现得并不令人信服。这是一场主场对阵纽卡斯尔的比赛，他们当然是本赛季的一支好球队。即便如此，看到访问者用xG记录了更多还是令人惊讶的!纽卡防守很好，阿森纳缺乏高质量的前锋是显而易见的。我预计热刺主帅孔蒂即使在主场也会非常谨慎，他的目标是关闭阿森纳的进攻。热刺在最近的一场比赛中表现非常好，他们在主场4-0击败了一支像样的球队水晶宫。这对球队来说一定是个巨大的鼓舞!是的，热刺本赛季有点不稳定，但通常会在重要比赛中提高他们的水平，我们也必须记住，他们近年来在主场对阵阿森纳时表现得非常好!这支被低估的东道主目前排在第5位，和纽卡斯尔一起努力争夺前四的位置。最后我想说，比起阿森纳主帅阿尔特塔，我更信任孔蒂。