Toulouse VS Stade Brestois (Brest)

Toulouse welcome Brest for this French Ligue 1 round battle at Stadium Municipal  late Sunday night Beijing time. This is the 4th-best league in the world and we have done very well betting on it! This match will probably not be of very high level but offers a lucrative betting opportunity for my fans and me to extend the amazing hot streak! The biggest, often rather sharp bookmakers with the largest betting limits offer odds of around 1.95-2.00 on Toulouse to take all three points. They are, of course, the favorites here but more narrow than the betting market estimates. Let's take a closer look..

Toulouse currently occupy the 12th place in the standings with 22 points to their account. Their offense has been stronger than I estimated in my in-depth preseason analysis. They have netted the ball 28 times so far in Ligue 1 but their number of expected goals is just 25.12. They were promoted from Ligue 2 for this season and are worse by pure class than the league table reflects. Many of their players have played above their normal level so far and this cannot go on forever! I rate them as the 16th-best team in Ligue 1 in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They are also a pretty small team in terms of financial resources. According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Toulouse's players have a total market value of 60.55 million euros. In my opinion this is a bit too high! I would set the number at around 55-57 million.. I am quite sure they will drop down in the standings before the end of the season Brest's squad has a total market value of 68.05 million euros. At least three players are under-valued and the fair value would be slightly over 70 million. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a pretty good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The sharp bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values these days.. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, the fresh World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-8 players on the planet! Furthermore, for example super-promising Englishman Jude Bellingham, just 19 years old, has a clearly higher market value than the legendary super stars Messi or Lewadowski at the moment.. 

Toulouse beat Auxerre in their most recent match 5-0 away from home and did deserve the win. However, the final score is massively misleading and this clear win probably affects the odds quite a lot here. Toulouse were the favorites in this match but Auxerre recorded many more goal attempts – 19-9. Toulouse did have 53% ball possession and recorded more in expected goals (xG) - 2.23-1.39. Brest have been having a tough season and have taken just 14 points and have allowed way too many goals – 33 in Ligue 1. However, they would have deserved 22.13 points in terms of expected points (xPTS). Their number of expected goals allowed is just 26.11. They have improved a lot under the new coach Eric Roy – especially in terms of defensive structure! Brest have kept a clean sheet in two of their most recent games. The most recent one was a 0-0 draw against a dangerous team, Lille, and before this they beat Avranches 2-0 away from home in a French Cup clash. Things look positive for them now and the bookies should start respecting them more!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

图卢兹VS布列斯托体育场(布列斯特)

图卢兹欢迎布列斯特参加在市政体育场举行的法甲轮战。北京时间周日深夜。这是世界上第四好的联赛，我们在这方面做得很好!这场比赛可能不是很高的水平，但为我的球迷和我提供了一个有利可图的投注机会，以延续惊人的连胜!最大的，通常相当敏锐的博彩公司提供最大的投注限额，为图卢兹提供约1.95-2.00的赔率，以获得所有三分。当然，他们在这里是最受欢迎的，但比博彩市场估计的范围更小。让我们仔细看看。

图卢兹目前以22分位居积分榜第12位。他们的进攻比我在季前赛深度分析中估计的要强大。到目前为止，他们已经在法甲联赛中破门28次，但他们的预期进球数只有25.12个。他们本赛季从法甲升入法甲，从等级上看，他们比排名榜上反映的要差。到目前为止，他们的许多球员的表现都超过了正常水平，这种情况不能永远持续下去!在我的实力评价中，他们在法甲排名第16位，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。就财政资源而言，他们也是一个相当小的团队。根据一家非常著名和受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，图卢兹球员的总市值为6055万欧元。在我看来，这有点太高了!我认为这个数字在5500万到5700万之间。我很确定在赛季结束前他们的排名会下降，布雷斯特的总市值为6805万欧元。至少有三名球员的价值被低估，公平价值将略高于7000万。当然，总市值有时会被误导，但仍然是一个很好的指标，一个球队在球场上的实际行动。足球(球员)市场毕竟是全球性的。如今，精明的博彩公司、足球记者/分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者越来越关注球队的总市场价值。然而，如果两个球员同样优秀，其中一个25岁，另一个35岁，那么年轻的球员当然更有价值。例如，新的世界冠军里奥·梅西或巴塞罗那的波兰超级球星莱万多夫斯基，尽管是地球上排名前8的球员，但他们甚至没有接近最大的当前市场价值!此外，例如超级有前途的英国人裘德·贝灵汉，年仅19岁，目前的市场价值明显高于传奇巨星梅西或利瓦多夫斯基。

图卢兹在最近的一场客场比赛中以5-0击败了欧塞尔，这是他们应得的胜利。然而，最终的比分具有很大的误导性，这次明显的胜利可能会对赔率产生很大的影响。图卢兹在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的，但欧塞尔记录了更多的进球尝试- 19-9。图卢兹的控球率为53%，预期进球数(xG)为2.23-1.39。布雷斯特这个赛季很艰难，只拿到了14分，丢了太多球——法甲33球。但是，他们的期望分数(xPTS)应该达到22.13分。他们的预期失球数只有26.11个。在新教练罗伊的带领下，他们进步了很多，尤其是在防守结构上!布雷斯特队在最近的两场比赛中零封对手。最近的一场比赛是0-0战平危险球队里尔，在此之前，他们在法国杯的比赛中客场2-0击败了阿夫朗切斯。现在的情况对他们来说是积极的，博彩公司应该开始更加尊重他们!