In my opinion Luton have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Hosts have good mental advantage before this game. In previous season Luton won 2:0 at home against WBA, so why not today?

Luton coming for this game full of confidence as they didn't lost in last 4 matches in a row and recorded 3 consecutive wins in Championship. They are extremely solid at home as they didn't lost in 10 of 12 home league matches so far. According to the expected goals scored model they should home results should look even better - they scored 16 goals, but they should 19.17. Two key players - defender Lockyer and midfielder Clark back to the team and are available today. It's great information.

WBA coming for this game without top scorer Thomas-Asante. It's huge blow as he showed great form one week ago in FA Cup (scored two goals). Obviously, WBA is dangerous team, but I not fully trust them on the road as they failed to win in 8 of 12 away matches so far. According to the expected goals conceded model that should look even worse - they conceded 12 goals in 12 away matches, but they should concede 14.48.

On those circumstances I see really good value on home side here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，卢顿有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

东道主在本场比赛前有良好的心理优势。上个赛季卢顿在主场2:0战胜了WBA，为什么今天不呢?

卢顿对这场比赛充满信心，因为他们在过去的4场比赛中没有输球，并且在英冠取得了3连胜。到目前为止，他们在12场主场比赛中有10场没有输球，所以他们在主场表现非常稳定。根据预期进球数模型，他们的主场成绩应该看起来更好——他们进了16个球，但应该是19.17个。两名关键球员——后卫洛克耶和中场克拉克今天已经归队。这是很好的信息。

WBA本场比赛没有了头号得分手托马斯-阿桑特。这是一个巨大的打击，因为他在一周前的足总杯上表现得很好(进了两球)。显然，WBA是一支危险的球队，但我并不完全相信他们在客场的表现，因为到目前为止，他们在12场客场比赛中有8场没有赢球。根据预期失球模型，情况应该更糟——他们在12场客场比赛中丢了12球，但他们应该丢14.48球。

在这种情况下，我认为在主场投资真的很有价值。