Aston Villa vs Leeds

Aston Villa host Leeds for this English Premier League round 20 clash at Villa Park in Birmingham early Saturday morning Beijing time. However, in reality Aston Villa have played 18 and Leeds 17 matches so far. This is the best league – especially in terms of tempo - in the world but I am afraid this match most probably will not offer the best possible entertainment for football fans.. Even so, I think we once again have a very lucrative betting opportunity here! That's, of course, the bottom line for my fans and me..  Aston Villa have raised their level under their excellent and often under-valued coach Unai Emery and currently occupy then 11th place in the standings with 22 points but I rate them as the 9th-best team in this league and expect them to climb up the standings – to probably topple Fulham and Brentford during the remainder of the season Their xPTS is 25.89 and are clearly under-valued by the bookmakers once again here. The biggest, often quite sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits offer odds of around 2.05 for them to take all three four points at least at the time of writing this preview Friday afternoon Beijing time. I see them having a 56% chance to win! I would, however, not be surprised if the odds on the hosts were to go down before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on Aston Villa.. Aston Villa were extremely unlucky to suffer a defeat in an FA Cup clash against Stevenage at home. It was a surprising loss despite Emery rotating his squad.. Villa were priced around 1.25 to win against Stevenage who play in League Two, the 4th tier of English football, on the betting market when the match started. Villa had close to 80% ball possession and recorded many more goal scoring attempts – 17-8 and one more shot on goal – 3-2. They also dominated the visitors in terms of total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 40-9! Stevenage played massively above their normal level and had a lot of luck on their side. They also seemed to be the more motivated team in this game. Indeed, FA Cup – not to mention Carabao Cup, are hardly ever the main priority for any Premier League team.I believe the betting market has reacted too much to this surprising loss! Before this they faced Wolves at home and were the better team on the pitch despite the 1-1 final score. They had 56% ball possession and created 1.23 in expected goals (xG) – the visitors' number was 0.80. The hosts recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 68-34.

Before the game against Wolves Aston Villa were very strong beating a very dangerous team, Tottenham, 2-0 on the road! They were very clear underdogs in this match- priced around 5.40-5.60 to win. It was an extremely convincing defensive performance! The visitors shut down Tottenham's dangerous offense with the likes of Harry Kane, a key player for the English national team and South Korean Son completely and allowed the hosts only two shots on target. Villa also recorded several more goal attempts – 13-6 to be specific. Furthermore, they recorded 1.34 in xG – Tottenham's number was 0.59. On Boxing Day they were not at their best at home against Liverpool though and deservedly suffered 1-3 defeat. I want to mention, though, that Liverpool, a somewhat erratic team this season, were better than on average this season in this clash.. Before the World Cup break Villa took two fine wins – 2-1 away from home against a surprisingly good team, Brighton, and 3-1 at Villa Park over Manchester United. Leeds, on the other hand, had to settle for a draw in their most recent match against Cardiff away from home against Cardiff. They were priced around 1.70 to win by the bookies. They were the better team in this match with 73% ball possession and more scoring chances and shots on goal. However, I was not impressed by them – their defense was shaly and too organized – once again. Leeds were very close to relegation last season and I expect  them to be in the same struggle again this season.. They have taken 17 points so far and occupy the 14th place in the league table but would have deserved 1.34 more in terms of xPTS. Their offense has been relatively strong and they have scored 25 goals but their defense has been shaky very often – away from home in particular. Indeed, they have allowed 31 goals! Their defenders make too many stupid individual mistakes and the defensive structure - including the midfielders who are often too lazy at defendimg– is quite often poor.. On the road they have mostly been bad this season winning just 1/9 games in The Premier League – score difference 10:17. Leeds have been in poor form results-wise recently failing to win any of their most recent five matches. Before the Cardiff game they were okay against a disappointing team, West Ham, at home and it was a 2-2 after a balanced clash. The visitors recorded a little more in xG 1.39 – 1.19. On the 28th of December 2022 they were completely dominated by Manchester City at home and deservedly lost 1-3. Man City recorded around 4.00 in xG. Leeds's xG was just 0.51 goals.The final score could easily have been even more clear in the visitors' favor.. On the 31st of December 2022 Leeds did, to my surprise, defend relatively well in Newcastle and grabbed a point. However, they were extremely lucky as the hosts recorded 2.92 in xG – Leeds created just 0.47. They only managed one shot on goal and recorded 18 just dangerous attacks. However, I want to mention that Leeds were clear underdogs in this match.

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阿斯顿维拉vs利兹联

北京时间周六凌晨，英超联赛第20轮阿斯顿维拉主场迎战利兹联队。然而，到目前为止，阿斯顿维拉和利兹联分别打了18场和17场比赛。这是世界上最好的联赛，特别是在节奏方面，但我担心这场比赛很可能不会为球迷提供最好的娱乐。即便如此，我认为我们再次有一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!当然，这是我和我的粉丝的底线。阿斯顿维拉在他们优秀但经常被低估的教练乌奈·埃梅里的带领下提高了他们的水平，目前在积分榜上排名第11位，积22分，但我认为他们是本联赛第9强的球队，并预计他们的排名会上升——在本赛季剩余的时间里可能会超过富勒姆和布伦特福德。他们的xPTS是25.89，显然再次被庄家低估了。在北京时间周五下午写这篇预告时，最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司提供了2.05左右的赔率，让他们至少能拿下3个4点。我觉得他们有56%的机会赢!然而，如果主队在开球前赔率下降，我也不会感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在阿斯顿维拉身上。阿斯顿维拉在足总杯主场对阵斯蒂夫尼奇的比赛中不幸失利。尽管埃梅里轮换了他的阵容，但这还是一场令人惊讶的失利。比赛开始时，在博彩市场上，维拉队对阵英格兰足球第四级别联赛乙级联赛的史蒂文尼奇队的比赛价格约为1.25英镑。比利亚的控球率接近80%，并且记录了更多的进球尝试——17-8和一次射门——3-2。他们在总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险的进攻次数方面也占据了客队的主导地位——40-9!斯蒂夫尼奇的表现大大超出了他们的正常水平，他们的运气很好。在这场比赛中，他们似乎也更有动力。事实上，足总杯——更不用说卡拉宝杯了——几乎从来都不是任何一支英超球队的首要任务。我相信博彩市场对这次惊人的损失反应过度了!在此之前，他们在主场面对狼队，尽管最终比分是1-1，但他们在球场上表现得更好。他们有56%的控球率，创造了1.23个预期进球数(xG)，而客队的数字是0.80个。东道主的射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险的进攻次数都更多——68比34。

在与狼队的比赛之前，阿斯顿维拉非常强大，击败了一支非常危险的球队，热刺，客场2-0 !他们在这场比赛中明显处于下风，以5.40-5.60的价格获胜。这是一场非常令人信服的防守表演!客队凭借英格兰国家队的关键球员哈里·凯恩和韩国人孙兴慜等球员，完全压制了热刺的危险进攻，只让东道主射正了两次。维拉也有几次进球尝试，具体来说是13-6。此外，他们的xG为1.34，而热刺为0.59。节礼日，他们在主场对阵利物浦的比赛中并没有发挥出最好的状态，1-3的失利是理所当然的。不过，我想说的是，利物浦，这支本赛季有点不稳定的球队，在这场比赛中表现得比本赛季平均水平要好。在世界杯休息前，比利亚取得了两场漂亮的胜利——客场2-1击败了实力惊人的布莱顿，在维拉公园客场3-1击败了曼联。另一方面，利兹联在最近的一场客场对阵卡迪夫的比赛中只得平局。博彩公司给他们开出的胜率约为1.70美元。他们在这场比赛中表现更好，有73%的控球率，更多的得分机会和射门机会。然而，我对他们并不感兴趣——他们的防守又一次显得粗糙而有条理。上个赛季利兹联队非常接近降级，我想本赛季他们将再次陷入同样的困境。到目前为止，他们已经获得了17分，在积分榜上排名第14位，但在xPTS方面应该得到1.34分。他们的进攻相对强大，已经进了25个球，但他们的防守经常不稳定——尤其是在客场。事实上，他们已经失球31个!他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误，防守结构——包括经常懒得防守的中场球员——经常很差。本赛季他们在客场表现不佳，在英超只赢了1/9场比赛，比分差了10:17。利兹联队最近状态不佳，最近五场比赛一场都没赢。在卡迪夫的比赛之前，他们在主场对阵一支令人失望的球队西汉姆联，在一场平衡的比赛之后，他们打成了2-2。客队在xG 1.39 - 1.19的记录稍多一些。2022年12月28日，他们在主场完全被曼城控制，1-3输得当之无愧。曼城记录的xG约为4.00。利兹联的xG只有0.51个进球。最终的比分本可以更明显地对客队有利。2022年12月31日，令我惊讶的是，利兹联在纽卡斯尔的防守相对不错，并拿到了一分。然而，他们非常幸运，因为东道主在xG中获得了2.92分，利兹只创造了0.47分。他们只完成了一次射门和18次危险的进攻。然而，我想提一下，利兹在这场比赛中明显处于下风。