Caen vs Bordeaux

Caen welcome Bordeaux for this French Ligue 2 clash at Stade Michel d'Ornano early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The biggest, often quite smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers see Caen as favorites. I definitely cannot agree with this estimation and see Bordeaux as narrow favorites with today's expected lineups. They have an edge in all areas of the game! They were relegated from Ligue 1 for this season. Yes, they were awful in most games in the season 2021-2022 but we must keep in mind that the difference between the first tier and second tier is substantial. Bordeaux are currently in second place in the standings and have a great chance of making it to the top-2 and promoting back to Ligue 1. They have taken 31 points so far and are five points behind Le Havre who top the standings. Even so, taking into account the potential Bordeaux have I rate them only marginally weaker than Le Havre in my power rating which reflects the teams' pure class. They have a deep squad full of very good players for this level. Some of their players could do pretty well even at the first tier. They have netted the ball 22 times so far but I do expect them to score more goals per game during the remainder of the season! Their number of expected goals (xG) is 24.34. Their defense has been solid but have still made some unnecessary mistakes especially away from home. However, I trust their excellent coach to improve this area of the game as well.

Bordeaux fought well in their most recent match against Rennes in their most recent match against Rennes at home despite losing 1-2. They were clear underdogs in this match on the betting market. Let's remember that Rennes are a strong team that currently occupy the 4th place in Ligue 1. Both teams recorded 13 scoring attempts in this Coupe de France (French Cup) clash. Overall Rennes were slightly better though. Before this Bordeaux did well to beat Sochaux, a very dangerous team currently in third place, 2-1 at home despite their player Delaurier-Chaubet being sent off in the second half. Caen are not a bad team and are currently in 7th place in the league table and do have a considerable home advantage. However, the number of expected points (xPTS) – 21.87 - is lower than the actual number they have grabbed – 24. They were somewhat lucky to take a point in their most recent game against St. Etienne away from home through a 1-1 draw. They were the better team on the pitch. They had 55% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks.Moreover they have ” won” on the pitch in just one of their latest five games. Indeed, on the 21th of December they ”won” 3-0 away from home but the official result is 3-0 in Virois's, a small team, favor (awarded). They have declined recently  - more than the bookies seem to realize and would have to improve - or have luck on their side to win this one..