A lucrative match in Spain! 国王杯塔拉戈纳VS奥萨苏纳
2023-01-05

Tapio

外籍分析师

西班牙杯

01/05 23:00

已完赛

解读理由:

Gimnastic de Tarragona VS Osasuna

Gimnastic try to challenge Osasuna in this Copa Del Rey 1/16-finals clash at Nou Estadi de Tarragona late Thursday evening Beijing time. Try is all I believe they will be able to do here as the difference between the teams is massive. They play in the Primera Federation – Grupo II. This is the third tier of Spanish football. Yes, even big surprises do happen in this competition and of course in football in general. For example, on Wednesday, a small team, CF Intercity forced the mighty Barcelona to extra time after a 3-3 score but Barca's Ansu Fati saved Barca from humiliation scoring the 4-3 goal. Gimnastic are not having a particularly strong season in the third tier and currently occupy the 6th place and even have a negative score difference of 19:21 and have grabbed more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). In their most recent game they beat Malaga, who play in LaLiga2, but are not having a particularly strong season.. 2-1 was the final score but the win was somewhat undeserved. Indeed, Malaga has 66% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts, total passes, completed passes,attacks and completed passes. I think this result affects the odds on the betting market here..

Osasuna are having a good season in LaLiga and occupy the 9th place in the standings. In their most recent match they lost to a very strong team, Real Sociedad, 0-2 away from home. They were, however, clear underdogs in this clash so the loss was neither a surprise or something to be ashamed of. Osasuna did have their chances too.. The visitors have a particularly strong defense – even by LaLiga standards and I would not be surprised to see Gimnastic fail to score here.. Osasuna's good coach could do some rotating even in this situation have a huge edge in all areas of the game. The biggest, usually pretty smart bookmakers that accept the largest bets from customers offer odds around 1.40-1.45 on Osasuna to win. This is definitely too much - they have a 76% chance to beat the hosts during the 90 minutes of play. For those who look for bigger odds I want to mention that my estimation on Osasuna to win by at least two goals' difference is 53%. Osasuna have 23 points to their account in LaLiga but their xPTS is just 19.41. I have them in 11th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. I believe Osasuna will be overvalued in many LaLiga games, especially against the stronger teams and perhaps we will go against them in the future but here do  trust them!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Gimnastic de Tarragona VS Osasuna

Gimnastic试图挑战奥萨苏纳,这场国王杯1/16决赛在北京时间周四晚上在塔拉戈纳诺球场进行。我相信他们在这里能做的就是努力,因为两队之间的差距是巨大的。他们在初级联盟-第二组比赛。这是西班牙足球的第三梯队。是的,在这场比赛中,甚至在整个足球界,大的惊喜也会发生。例如,周三,一支小球队CF Intercity在3-3的比分后迫使强大的巴萨进入加时赛,但巴萨的安苏·法蒂(Ansu Fati)以4-3的比分挽救了巴萨的耻辱。Gimnastic本赛季在第三梯队中表现不佳,目前排名第6,甚至有19:21的负积分差,并且在预期积分(xPTS)方面获得了比他们应得的更多的积分。在最近的一场比赛中,他们击败了马拉加,马拉加在LaLiga2,但这个赛季并不是特别强大。最终比分是2比1,但这场胜利有些不公平。事实上,马拉加拥有66%的控球率,并且记录了更多的射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和完成传球次数。我认为这个结果会影响博彩市场的赔率。

奥萨苏纳本赛季在西甲联赛中表现不错,目前在积分榜上排名第九。在最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场0-2输给了一支非常强大的球队皇家社会。然而,他们在这场比赛中明显处于下风,所以输球既不令人意外,也不值得羞愧。奥萨苏纳也有机会。客队有一个特别强大的防守——即使是按照西甲的标准,我也不会对Gimnastic在这里没有进球感到惊讶。奥萨苏纳的好教练可以做一些轮换,即使在这种情况下,在比赛的所有领域都有巨大的优势。最大的,通常是非常聪明的博彩公司,他们接受客户的最大赌注,为奥萨苏纳提供1.40-1.45的赔率。这绝对是太多了——在90分钟的比赛中,他们有76%的机会击败东道主。对于那些期待更大胜率的人,我想提一下,我对奥萨苏纳获胜的估计是至少两球的差距是53%。奥萨苏纳在西甲联赛中有23分,但他们的xPTS只有19.41分。在我的实力评分中,他们排在第11位,这反映了两支球队的纯粹水平。我相信奥萨苏纳在许多西甲比赛中会被高估,尤其是对阵强队的时候,也许我们将来会与他们对抗,但在这里我们不会。信任他们!


观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。