In my opinion Southampton have really good chances to make 3 points in today's match up.

It's extremely important match for league table - both teams are in relegation zone and both teams want to escape from there a soon as possible. Interesting thing - today we will see on the pitch the worst home team and the worst away team in whole league. Why I believe Southampton is able to win here?

Nottingham is awful team on away, no doubt about that. They lost 6 of 8 away matches so far - scored only one goal and conceded 22 (!!!). In last round they recorded 1:1 at home against Chelsea - on paper result looks solid, but team from London played on really low level so for me that draw is overrated in bookies eyes.

Southampton is much more solid at the back than their results shows. In current season they conceded 32 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should concede 22.6. It's huge difference, especially at this stage of the season. Southampton have new coach Nathan Jones - he worked superb on Championship level as he turned Luton from relegation material into top8 team. For him defensive formation is very important and I expect big progress soon at the back and much bigger stability in results. Despite the loss in first match at home after the break against Brighton, they looked good at both ends of the pitch and that wasn't deserved result at all - faced only 7 shots, 0.64 expected goals conceded/made 14 shots, 1.91 expected goals scored. In last round against Fulham on away, but once again played good: excluding penalty kick Fulham had lower expected goals scored number than Southampton. If they continue play on this level they have all required tools to make win today front of home crowd.

Southampton won first match of the new calendar year in last 3 seasons in a row. I believe they are able to continue this great streak today.

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在我看来，南安普顿有很大的机会在今天的比赛中得到3分。

对于积分榜来说，这是一场极其重要的比赛——两支球队都在降级区，两支球队都想尽快脱离降级区。有趣的是，今天我们将在球场上看到整个联赛中最差的主队和最差的客场球队。为什么我相信南安普顿能在这里赢球?

诺丁汉客场是一支糟糕的球队，这是毫无疑问的。到目前为止，他们在8场客场比赛中输了6场，只进了1球，丢了22球(!!)在上一轮，他们在主场1:1击败切尔西——纸面上的结果看起来很稳定，但来自伦敦的球队踢得很低，所以在我看来，那场平局在博彩公司的眼中被高估了。

南安普顿的后防线比他们的结果要稳固得多。本赛季他们丢了32球，但根据预期进球数模型，他们应该丢22.6球。这是巨大的不同，尤其是在赛季的这个阶段。南安普顿有了新教练内森·琼斯——他在英冠级别上表现出色，他把卢顿从降级的争夺者变成了前8。对他来说，防守阵型是非常重要的，我希望他在后防线上有很大的进步，结果也会更加稳定。尽管在主场对阵布莱顿的比赛中失利，但他们在攻防两端都表现出色，这根本不是他们应得的结果——面对的射门只有7次，预期失球0.64个/射门14次，预期进球数1.91个。上轮客场对阵富勒姆，但再次发挥出色:除去点球，富勒姆的预期进球数低于南安普顿。如果他们继续保持这样的水平，他们就有必要在今天的主场赢得比赛。

南安普顿在过去的3个赛季中连续赢得了新日历年的第一场比赛。我相信他们今天能够继续这种伟大的连胜。