Aston Villa VS Wolves

Aston Villa welcome Wolves for this English Premier League round 19 clash at Villa Park in Birmingham early Thursday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played 17 matches so far. This is the best league in the world but unfortunately this match most probably will not offer world-class entertainment.. Even so, I think we once again have a lucrative betting opportunity here – and that's what my fans and I are interested in at the end of the day!  Wolverhampton have been a massive disappointment this season and I have, as a result, significantly lowered their power rating which reflects the teams' pure class.. Indeed, last season they finished in 10th place with 51 points to their account. However, this was 11.03 more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS).. They were over-valued on the betting market in quite a few games last season - and have been this season as well - the same is true here too! This is perhaps slightly surprising taking into account the fact that their xPTS is 2.45 more than the actual number – 13. I believe the bookies give too much emphasis on their potential which is definitely there in terms of list of players.. However, I do not expect a rapid improvement from Wolves.. They currently occupy the 19th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. They will have to fight very hard to avoid relegation.. I do expect them to topple (at least) Nottingham who are currently in the 18th place, during the rest of the season though. Indeed, I have Wolves in the 17th place in my power rating.

Wolves'  biggest problem has been the incredibly inefficient offense. It lacks basically everything needed to score goals: speed, structure, passing accuracy and creativity! The opponents, especially the stronger teams, usually have an easy time to organize the defense against Wolves. The midfielders should take part in attacking more actively. The visitors have netted the ball just 10 times in this league which is a pathetic number and clearly the lowest number in The Premier League! However, their number of expected goals (xG) is a bit 13.14 – still a very small number.. Their defense has not been convincing either as they have conceded 26 goals and lost 10/17 games in this league! In their most recent game they lost to Manchester United at home and were simply bad! ManU were, of course, the favorites in this clash priced around 1.95 to win on the betting market. The visitors could easily have won by a bigger margin as they recorded 2.56 in xG – Wolves' number was just 0.49! ManU also had 54% ball possession and recorded many more shots on goal (6-1), goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they were somewhat lucky to beat Everton, another disappointing team, 2-1 away from home as underdogs. Everon created more in expected goals 1.41 – 1.19 and as their manager Frank Lampard told the press ahead of the game against Man City, were the better team. They had 58% ball possession and recorded clearly more shots on goal, goal attempts (12-7), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks.

Aston Villa have improved under Unai Emery and currently occupy then 12th place in the standings with 21 points but I rate them as the 10th-best team in this league and expect them to climb up the standings! Their xPTS is 24.45 and are clearly under-valued by the bookies here! The biggest, usually somewhat sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits offer odds of around 1.95-2.00 for them to win at the time of writing this Tuesday evening Beijing time but I see them having a 58% chance! I would not be surprised to see their odds to be slashed before the kickoff though as smart money is expected to pile up on them.. They were excellent in their most recent match beating a very dangerous team, Tottenham, 2-0 in London! They were very clear underdogs in this game - priced around 5.50 to take all three points. It was an awesome defensive performance indeed! Villa shut down Tottenham's dangerous offense with the likes of Kane and Son completely and allowed the hosts just two shots on goal. Villa also recorded many more goal attempts - 13-6. Moreover, they recorded 1.34 in xG – the hosts' number was just 0.59. On Boxing Day they were not at their best at home against Liverpool though and deservedly lost 1-3. However, I want to mention that Liverpool, an erratic team these days, were better than on average this season in this match.. Before the World Cup break Villa took two fine wins – 2-1 away from home against a pretty strong team Brighton and 3-1 at Villa Park over ManU! Players to watch closely here are especially  Leon Bailey who  opened the scoring within ten minutes in Villa’s latest two home wins. As for Wolves  Rúben Neves said that his team “can do better” after their loss to ManU. Neves should do better himself - the Portuguese midfielder has the potential. Aston Villa will be missing Diego Carlos and J. Ramsey. Douglas Luiz' and J. M. McGinn's situation is questionable. As for the visitors Chiquinho, Kalajdzic and Neto are out due to an injury.

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阿斯顿维拉VS狼

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北京时间周四凌晨，阿斯顿维拉在伯明翰维拉公园球场迎来了英超第19轮狼队的比赛。然而，实际上两支球队到目前为止已经打了17场比赛。这是世界上最好的联赛，但不幸的是，这场比赛很可能无法提供世界级的娱乐。即便如此，我认为我们在这里又有了一个有利可图的投注机会——这也是我的粉丝和我最终感兴趣的!狼队本赛季的表现非常令人失望，因此，我大大降低了他们的实力评级，这反映了这支球队的纯粹水平。事实上，上赛季他们以51分排名第十。然而，这比他们应得的预期分数(xPTS)多了11.03分。上赛季他们在博彩市场上被高估了很多场比赛，本赛季也是如此，这里也是如此!考虑到他们的xPTS比实际数字(13)高出2.45，这可能有点令人惊讶。我相信博彩公司太强调他们的潜力了，这在球员名单上是绝对存在的。然而，我不指望狼队能迅速提高。他们目前在联赛中排名第19位，共有20家俱乐部。他们将不得不为保级而艰苦战斗。我确实希望他们能在本赛季剩下的时间里击败(至少)目前排名第18的诺丁汉。事实上，在我的力量评价中，狼队排在第17位。

狼的,最大的问题是难以置信的低效进攻。它基本上缺乏进球所需的一切:速度、结构、传球精度和创造力!对手，尤其是实力较强的球队，通常很容易组织起对狼队的防守。中场球员应该更积极地参与进攻。客队在这个联赛中只进了10个球，这是一个可悲的数字，显然是英超最低的数字!然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)是13.14 -仍然是一个非常小的数字。他们的防守也没有说服力，因为他们在这个联赛中丢了26个球，输了10/17场比赛!在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场输给了曼联，表现太差了!当然，在这场比赛中，ManU是最受欢迎的，在博彩市场上的定价约为1.95。客队本可以以更大的优势轻松获胜，因为他们的xG为2.56，而狼队的xG仅为0.49!马努也有54%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(6-1)，射门次数，总传球次数，完成传球，进攻和危险进攻。在此之前，他们有点幸运地击败了另一支令人失望的球队埃弗顿，在客场2-1击败了不被看好的球队。埃弗隆创造了更多的预期进球1.41 - 1.19，正如他们的经理弗兰克·兰帕德在对阵曼城的比赛前告诉媒体的那样，他们是更好的球队。他们拥有58%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数(12-7)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻和危险进攻。

阿斯顿维拉在乌奈·埃梅里的带领下取得了进步，目前以21分排在积分榜第12位，但我认为他们是本联赛第10强的球队，希望他们能爬上排名!他们的xPTS是24.45，显然被这里的博彩公司低估了!在北京时间本周二晚上写这篇文章的时候，最大的、通常有些精明的博彩公司给出的中奖赔率约为1.95-2.00，但我认为他们有58%的机会!如果他们的赔率在开球前被大幅削减，我不会感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在他们身上。他们在最近的一场比赛中出色地击败了一支非常危险的球队，热刺，在伦敦，2-0 !他们在这场比赛中明显处于下风，以5.50分左右的价格拿下三分。这确实是一场令人敬畏的防守表演!比利亚用凯恩和孙兴慜等球员彻底封锁了热刺的危险进攻，只让东道主有两次射门。维拉也有更多的进球尝试，13-6。此外，它们的xG为1.34，而宿主的xG仅为0.59。在节礼日，他们在主场对阵利物浦的比赛中并没有发挥出最好的状态，1-3输得当之无愧。然而，我想提到的是，利物浦这支最近不稳定的球队，在这场比赛中表现得比本赛季的平均水平要好。在世界杯休息前，比利亚取得了两场漂亮的胜利——客场2-1击败了相当强大的布莱顿，在比利亚公园球场3-1击败了马努!这里值得密切关注的球员尤其是里昂·贝利，他在维拉最近两场主场胜利的十分钟内就首开纪录。至于狼队 Rúben Neves 说他的球队在输给马努之后“可以做得更好”。内维斯自己应该做得更好，葡萄牙中场有潜力。阿斯顿维拉将失去迭戈·卡洛斯和拉姆塞。道格拉斯·路易斯和j·m·麦克金的情况值得怀疑。客队奇基尼奥、卡拉季奇和内托因伤缺阵。