Lyon VS Clermont

Lyon host Clermont for this French Ligue 1 round 17 clash at Parc Olympique Lyonnais at midnight Beijing time. There is no doubt about the fact that Lyon are the better team here. Even so, I cannot agree with the biggest, normally pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets. They offer the hosts odds of around 1.55 to take all three points – at least at the time of writing this preview Sunday evening Beijing time. However, I would not bee surprised to see odds on Clermont to go down before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the the visitors – especially in handicap betting. In my view Lyon have a 57 % chance to win. However, all my fans and I need to win with the recommended +1.5 goals handicap on is for Clermont to avoid losing by more than one goal's difference. The probability for this is 67%. Lyon are a big club by financial resources, historical success and players total market value according to a German website, Transfermarkt.com. However, they are having another disappointing season. In August 2020 they shocked the football world to beat Manchester City in the UEFA champions League Playoffs but the decline has been substantial since then. Last season the finished in 8th place and occupy the same place in the standings with 24 points in the bank. Their goal difference is not overly convincing either – 27:20. For example PSG who top the standings have grabbed 20 more points and have a score difference of +35. Even Lens (2nd) have a goal difference of 26:10.

The bookies just keep over-valuing Lyon. Moreover, they have won just one just one of their latest nine games in this league by more than one goal's difference. Lyon were victoriuos when the teams last met last May. They won 2-1 away from home after a pretty balanced clash. In August 2021 it was a 3-3 draw in Lyon. The hosts are in mediocre form winning one of their most recent games. This happened on the 28th of December away from home over a pretty lowly team, Brest, who occupy the 17th place in the standings. Offensively they were good recording clearly over three goals in expected goals (xG) but I was not convinced by their defense. Before this they lost to pretty small Italian team, Monza, 1-2 in friendly game as massive favorites. Clermont, on the other hand, are having a positive season and have 19 points to their account and are in the 11th place. They have not taken a win in Ligue 1 for a while though but the bookies seem to have over-reacted to their recent results. In their most recent game they lost to a strong team, Lille, 0-2 but the match was more balanced than the final score would suggest. They have a pretty good defense and will surely be quite cautious here – relying mainly on counter attacks and would probably be quite happy with a draw.. The hosts will be missing injured Gusto, Henrique and Pollersbeck. Clermont will have to manage without Caufriez (previous red card) and Zeffane (calf injury)

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里昂VS克莱蒙特

北京时间午夜，法甲第17轮里昂主场迎战克莱蒙特。毫无疑问，里昂在这里是一支更好的球队。即便如此，我也不同意那些通常相当聪明的最大博彩公司接受最大赌注的说法。至少在北京时间周日晚上写这篇文章的时候，他们为东道主提供了1.55左右的赔率来拿下这三分。然而，在开球前看到克莱蒙特的赔率下降，我并不感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会在客队身上堆积起来——尤其是在残障投注中。在我看来里昂有57%的机会赢球。然而，我和我所有的球迷都需要在推荐的+1.5个进球的不利条件下获胜，以避免克莱蒙特队输掉超过一个进球的差距。这个概率是67%根据德国网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，里昂在财力、历史成就和球员总市值方面都是一家豪门。然而，他们又经历了一个令人失望的赛季。2020年8月，他们在欧洲冠军联赛季后赛中击败曼城，震惊了足球界，但自那以后，他们的实力大幅下滑。上赛季他们排在第8位，并以24分的积分榜积在同一位置。他们的净胜球差距也不是很令人信服——27:20。例如，排名第一的巴黎圣日耳曼多拿了20分，积分差为+35。伦斯(第二名)的净胜球为26:10。

博彩公司总是高估里昂的价值。此外，在最近的9场联赛中，他们只赢了一场，仅仅赢了一场。两队上一次交锋是在去年五月，里昂队是胜利者。经过一场相当平衡的比赛，他们在客场2-1获胜。2021年8月，双方在里昂3-3战平。东道主在最近的一场比赛中表现平平。这发生在12月28日客场对阵一支相当低的球队，布雷斯特队，他们在积分榜上排名第17位。在进攻端，他们的预期进球数明显超过了3个，但我不相信他们的防守。在此之前，他们在友谊赛中以1-2的比分输给了规模很小的意大利蒙扎队。另一方面，克莱蒙特本赛季表现不错，积19分，排在第11位。他们已经有一段时间没有在法甲取得胜利了，但博彩公司似乎对他们最近的成绩反应过度。在最近的一场比赛中，他们以0:2输给了一支强队里尔，但这场比赛比最终比分所显示的更加平衡。他们有很好的防守，在这里肯定会非常谨慎——主要依靠反击，很可能会很高兴得到平局。东道主将会错过受伤的古斯托，恩里克和波勒斯贝克。克莱蒙特将不得不在没有考弗里兹(之前的红牌)和泽法内(小腿受伤)的情况下进行比赛。