Manchester City VS Everton

Manchester City welcome Everton for this English Premier League round 18 clash at Etihad Stadium later Saturday evening Beijing time. However, in reality City have played 15 games and Everton 16. This is the best league in the world and we have done extremely well betting on it as we have won six picks in a row! Manchester City are one of the best teams on the planet and it is very clear for everyone who follows football that the hosts are very clear favorites today.. However, I do not agree with the biggest, usually quite sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets.. They offer odds around 1.10-1.13 for City to win.. I would say that they have a 80-81% chance to send Everton back to Liverpool empty-handed.. However, my fans and I would win again with the recommended +3 handicap on Everton with the 1x2 handicap option if the visitors avoid losing by more than two goals’ difference!  +2.5 goals is a massive handicap in this league in almost any game.. The probability of us winning is 59%. The -2.5 goals handicap line was more or less correct at odds around 2.00 for both teams last season for example against a very poor team Norwich – a game City easily won in August 2021. We must, however, remember that Everton are much better than the incredibly bad Norwich last season. They are not among the worst teams in this league and are currently in the 16th place with 14 points to their account. Moreover, their score difference is not that bad – 12:19. Indeed have allowed just slightly more than one goal per game. .Their number of expected goals allowed (XGA) is just 16.78 goals. Furthermore, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 17.21 points.

 Everton were certainly not in good form before the quite long World Cup break losing three of the five Premier League games. Even so, the 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace was a fine one! On the 29th of October they proved that they can defend well away from home despite being under quite a lot of pressure at times. Everton did have their chances and with some luck could have won. They recorded 1.32 in xG – Fulham’s number was 1.74. Now they have had some time to work on their game on the training pitch which should help..  By financial resources and the list of players they should be able to finish 10- 12th. Everton took confidence-boosting wins in friendlies during the break. They crushed Australian WS Wanderers 5-1 and beat the dominant team in Scotland, Celtic, 1-0 after penalties. Celtic even played in the UEFA Champions League group phase this season taking some points. On the 26th of this month they suffered a loss at home in the hands of Wolverhampton 1-2 but created more in expected goals – 1.41 – 1.19. They had 58% ball possession and recorded many more shots on goal, scoring attempts, total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. I believe the very disappointing - even messy last season with many internal problems as well as the bad recent results in this league affect the odds here too much! Man City need no long introduction but I want to mention that they played on the 28th of this month against Leeds away from home and took a totally deserved 3-1 win. They recorded 3.98 in expected goals  – Leeds’s number was 0.78 but Leeds played below their normal – not so great - level. I believe this win has excited the betting market a little too much.. 

Having only two full days between matches is clearly too low in professional football and this is a small edge for Everton. City, of course, have a large number of very good players but there is still a difference between very good and great, world-class players. I would not be surprised to see the hosts legendary manager Guardiola rotate his squad here.. Lastly I want to remind my fans that everybody probably expected City to dominate The Premier League this season.. Well, they do not even top the standings, Arsenal do – by a five-point margin! Moreover, they have grabbed 3.12 more points than they would have deserved in terms of xPTS. They have also scored 9.12 more goals than the xG would suggest! Even so, I rate them as the best team in this league but have still slightly lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my in-depth preseason analysis. Everton are in the 14th place in this ranking. I also want to mention that quite a few City players played in the World Cup - the biggest sports event in the world! I would not be surprised if some of these players were not quite at their best mentally and/or physically here.. City will rest the World Champion J. Alvarez, R. Dias is injured and B. Mendy is suspended. As for Everton J. Garner has a back injury. Townsend is also out (knee injury). Y. Mina's situation is questionable at the time of writing this preview Saturday morning Beijing time. Lastly I want to highlight that City have not won any of their latest 12 matches by more than two goals' difference!

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曼城VS埃弗顿

北京时间周六晚些时候，曼城在伊蒂哈德球场欢迎埃弗顿参加这场英超联赛第18轮的比赛。然而，事实上曼城踢了15场比赛，埃弗顿踢了16场。这是世界上最好的联赛，我们在这方面做得非常好，因为我们已经连续赢得了六个选秀权!曼城是这个星球上最好的球队之一，对于每个关注足球的人来说，今天的东道主是非常受欢迎的。然而，我不同意最大的，通常相当敏锐的博彩公司接受最大的赌注。曼城获胜的赔率约为1.10-1.13。我想说他们有80% -81%的机会让埃弗顿空手回到利物浦。不过，如果客队能避免两球以上的差距输掉比赛，我和我的球迷就会用推荐的+3差点和1x2差点选项再次赢下埃弗顿!在这个联赛的任何比赛中，+2.5球都是一个巨大的障碍。我们赢的概率是59%上赛季，两支球队的-2.5球障碍线或多或少是正确的，例如对阵非常糟糕的诺维奇队，曼城在2021年8月轻松赢得了比赛。然而，我们必须记住，埃弗顿比上赛季糟糕得令人难以置信的诺维奇要好得多。他们并不是联盟中最差的球队，目前积14分排在第16位。而且，他们的比分差距并不大——12:19。事实上，他们每场比赛只失球1个多一点。他们的预期失球数(XGA)只有16.78个。此外，就预期得分(xPTS)而言，他们应该获得17.21分。

埃弗顿在世界杯前很长一段时间状态不佳，五场英超比赛输掉了三场。即便如此，主场3-0战胜水晶宫也是一场精彩的比赛!在10月29日的比赛中，他们证明了他们可以在客场防守得很好，尽管有时会承受很大的压力。埃弗顿确实有机会，如果运气好的话，他们可能会赢。他们的xG为1.32，富勒姆为1.74。现在他们有一些时间在训练场上练习他们的比赛，这应该会有帮助。从财力和球员名单来看，他们应该能排在第10- 12位。埃弗顿在休息期间的友谊赛中获得了信心倍增的胜利。他们5-1大胜澳大利亚WS流浪者队，点球后1-0击败苏格兰凯尔特人队。凯尔特人甚至参加了本赛季的欧冠小组赛，拿到了一些积分。本月26日，他们在主场1-2负于狼队，但创造了更多的预期进球——1.41 - 1.19。他们拥有58%的控球率，记录了更多的射门、得分尝试、总传球、进攻和危险进攻。我相信非常令人失望的，甚至是混乱的上赛季，有很多内部问题，以及最近联赛糟糕的结果，对这里的赔率影响太大了!曼城不需要多介绍，但我想说的是，他们在本月28日客场对阵利兹联队，并以3-1完胜。他们的预期进球数为3.98——利兹联的预期进球数为0.78，但利兹联的表现低于他们的正常水平——不是很好。我相信这次胜利让博彩市场有点太兴奋了。

两场比赛之间只有整整两天的时间，这在职业足球中显然太低了，这对埃弗顿来说是一个小小的优势。当然，曼城有很多非常优秀的球员，但是非常优秀和伟大的世界级球员之间还是有区别的。如果看到东道主传奇教练瓜迪奥拉在这里轮换阵容，我不会感到惊讶。最后我想提醒我的球迷，每个人都希望曼城在这个赛季统治英超。好吧，他们甚至还没有排在积分榜的首位，阿森纳排在首位——以5分的优势!此外，他们在xPTS方面比他们应得的分数多了3.12分。他们的进球数也比xG所显示的多9.12个!即便如此，我仍然认为他们是联盟中最好的球队，但从我的季前赛深度分析来看，他们的实力评级仍然略有下降。埃弗顿排在第14位。我还想提一下，不少曼城球员参加了世界杯——世界上最大的体育赛事!如果有些球员在精神和/或身体上没有达到最佳状态，我不会感到惊讶。曼城将让世界冠军j·阿尔瓦雷斯休息，r·迪亚斯受伤，b·门迪停赛。至于埃弗顿J.加纳背部受伤。汤森也因膝盖受伤缺席了比赛。在北京时间周六上午撰写这篇预告时，米娜的情况值得怀疑。最后我想强调的是，曼城在最近的12场比赛中没有赢过任何一场超过2球的比分!