Lincoln VS Bolton

Lincoln welcome Bolton in this English League One round 24 clash at LNER stadium  early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the 3rd-highest level of English football and is the best 3rd tier on the planet Bolton do have an edge in all areas of the game but the odds of around 2.25 offered by the biggest bookmakers with the largest stake limits are definitely too low! The hosts are a little better than the table suggests and the difference between the players total market value according to Transfermarkt.com in Bolton's favor is not substantial.. I see the visitors having a 35 % chance of robbing all three points here. The probability of a draw is 32%. Bolton are a team in long-term decline and finished in 9h place last season. It was yet another disappointment of the team who played in the Premier League some years ago.. They currently occupy the 5th place in the standings with 36 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 32.45 points. Their score difference is 26:19 but in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) they should have conceded 22.92 goals.

Bolton did unarguably defend well in their most recent game though. They were slim favorites according to the betting market in this clash but it was, in reality, a balanced clash at home against Derby. No goals were scored and Bolton only recorded two shots on the visitors goal.. Indeed, their offense was  - once again -  too predictable and slow for most of the match. Plymouth who top the standings have netted the ball 53 goals by now!  Moreover, Oxford City (13th) have scored 29 goals.. The match against Derby was played three days ago so the recovery time is too short – this benefits the hosts here! Before the Derby game Bolton did beat Exeter 2-0 at home as clear favorites according to the bookies. The match was, however, much more balanced than the final score would suggest as Bolton only had 51% ball possession and only one more shot on goal - three. The visitors even recorded more completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks.. Lincoln were not great in their most recent match losing to Burton 0-3 away from home as underdogs. They were the worse team but the 3-0 final score did flatter Burton who recorded just three more scoring attempts – 11-8. At home Lincoln have been excellent lately avoiding a defeat in nine games in a row!  The loud and loyal fans offer a massive boost for them here and I think this factor is not given enough emphasis by the bookmakers here.