Getafe welcome Mallorca for this this LaLiga round 15 clash at Coliseum Alfonso Perez early Saturday morning Beijing time. This the second-best league in the world – after The English Premier League in my opinion but football fans cannot expect a super high-level or entertaining clash here between these mediocre teams. However, my aim is to make a hefty long-term profit for my fans and myself! We have done very well betting on LaLiga winning 17/20 of the most recent picks! Once again I think the odds here are not quite correct.. Indeed, the biggest, usually pretty sharp bookies see Mallorca only as very narrow favorites - at least at the time of writing this analysis Friday afternoon Beijing time..I cannot agree with this as Mallorca have an edge in all areas of the game! However, I do expect the odds on the visitors to come down before the kickoff as smart money will probably pile up on them..

Mallorca have netted the ball 13 times in LaLiga this season but their number of expected goals (xG) is much higher – 17.01 goals! Getafe, on the other hand, have scored just 12 goals but their xG is very low - 10.09. Their offense seems to lack many things: speed, passing accuracy nears the opponent's goal and a proper structure. Their strikers and midfielders are also simply not skilled enough and their attacks are often quite predictable making it easy for the opponent to organize the defense. Only the rock-bottom team, Elche (10) and Cadiz have scored less goals – nine. In terms of defensive quality the gap between the teams is even bigger-. Mallorca have conceded just 13 goals which is, quite surprisingly, less than the reigning champions Real Madrid, currently in second place, have allowed! Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 11.01! The hosts' xGA is 23.04 but the actual number is 20.

Getafe have taken 14 points which is 1.98 points more than the expected points (xPTS) would suggest.. Mallorca have 19 points to their account but their xPTS is 22.02. I rate them as the 10 best team in LaLiga in my power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. In reality they currently occupy the 11th place. Getafe are in the 15th place but I expect at least 2/3 of the three teams - Sevilla, Celta Vigo and Espanyol - to topple them before the season comes to an end.. The home advantage cannot be forgotten here but Getafe are definitely a great home team! Indeed, they have won just one game at home in LaLiga this season and their score difference in front of their fans is weak - 6:10. They are sometimes far from relaxed at their stadium and take silly risks in an attempt to score and entertain the home fans. A bit surprisingly, Mallorca have been very strong away from home - the 5th-best team in LaLiga(!) - losing just 2/7 games on the road and recording a goal difference of 8:7. Their defensive, even cautious style of play is perfectly-suited for away games as they do not need to please their fans with aggressive football..

Because both teams'' pretty lame offense and Mallorca's fine, well-structured defense the goal expectancy in this match is extremely low – even lower than the betting market estimates - and the draw has a probability of 36%.The probability for under total 1.5 goals being scored is 52%. Mallorca should take a little bigger risks and put more pressure on the opponent's defense – especially against lowly teams like Getafe - if they want to claim a top-10 place at the end of the season.. Buying a creative striker and/or midfielder might also be a fine idea.. Mallorca are not a particularly rich club though.. A player to watch closely here is Vedat Muriqi,28, who has scored eight LaLiga goals this season. He is expected to lead the line for the Mallorca in this clash. He is a fast and creative guy and is good at scoring on counter attacks. Both teams took a win in their most recent match (Spanish Cup) against small teams but overall Mallorca have been in much better form in LaLiga – before the pretty long World Cup break. Indeed, they have lost just one of their latest five games! Getafe, on the other hand, have won just one of their latest eight matches in this league. With today's expected lineups Mallorca have a 39% chance to fly back to their beautiful island with all three points!

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赫塔菲欢迎马洛卡参加北京时间周六凌晨在阿方索佩雷斯球场举行的西甲第15轮比赛。在我看来，这是世界上第二好的联赛，仅次于英超联赛，但球迷们不能指望这些平庸的球队之间会有一场超级高水平或有趣的冲突。然而，我的目标是为我的粉丝和我自己创造巨大的长期利润!我们已经很好地下注了LaLiga赢得17/20最近的选择!再一次，我认为这里的几率不太正确。事实上，最大的，通常相当敏锐的博彩公司认为马洛卡只是一个非常小的热门-至少在北京时间周五下午写这篇分析的时候。我不能同意这一点，因为马洛卡在比赛的所有领域都有优势!然而，我确实希望客队的赔率在开球前下降，因为聪明的钱可能会堆积在他们身上。

马洛卡本赛季在西甲联赛中打进13球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)要高得多——17.01球!另一方面，赫塔菲只进了12球，但他们的xG非常低——10.09。他们的进攻似乎缺乏很多东西:速度，接近对手球门的传球精度和适当的结构。他们的前锋和中场球员技术也不够熟练，他们的进攻往往很容易被对手组织防守。只有垫底的埃尔切(10球)和加的斯(9球)进球数更少。在防守质量方面，两队之间的差距更大。马洛卡只丢了13个球，令人惊讶的是，这比目前排名第二的卫冕冠军皇家马德里丢的球还少!他们的预期进球数(xGA)只有11.01个!主机的xGA值为23.04，但实际值为20。

赫塔菲拿到了14分，比预期积分(xPTS)多了1.98分。马洛卡有19分，但他们的xPTS是22.02分。在我的实力评分中，我把他们评为西甲最好的10支球队，这说明了球队的纯粹水平。实际上，他们目前占据了第11位。赫塔菲排在第15位，但我预计三支球队中至少有三分之二的球队——塞维利亚、塞尔塔和西班牙人——会在赛季结束前把他们推倒。主场优势不能被遗忘，但赫塔菲绝对是一支伟大的主场球队!事实上，他们本赛季在西甲联赛中只在主场赢了一场比赛，他们在球迷面前的比分差距很小——6:10。他们有时在球场上一点也不放松，为了得分和取悦主场球迷，他们会冒一些愚蠢的风险。有点令人惊讶的是，马洛卡在客场表现非常强劲——在西甲排名第五(!)——在客场仅输掉2/7场比赛，净胜球为8:7。他们的防守，甚至谨慎的打法非常适合客场比赛，因为他们不需要用激进的足球来取悦球迷。

由于两支球队的进攻都很糟糕，而马洛卡队的防守很好，结构很好，这场比赛的进球预期非常低，甚至低于博彩市场的预期，平局的概率为36%。总进球数在1.5球以下的概率为52%。如果马洛卡想要在赛季末进入前十，他们应该冒更大的风险，给对手的防守施加更大的压力，尤其是面对赫塔菲这样的低水平球队。购买一名有创造力的前锋和/或中场球员可能也是一个好主意。马洛卡并不是一个特别富有的俱乐部。这里需要密切关注的球员是28岁的韦达·穆里奇(Vedat Muriqi)，他在本赛季的西甲联赛中打进了8球。他有望在这场比赛中为马略卡队带队。他是一个速度快、有创造力的家伙，擅长在反击中得分。两支球队在最近对阵小球队的比赛中都取得了胜利，但在漫长的世界杯假期之前，马洛卡在西甲联赛的状态要好得多。事实上，他们在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场!另一方面，赫塔菲在最近的8场联赛中只赢了一场。根据今天的预期阵容，马洛卡有39%的机会带着三分飞回他们美丽的岛屿!