Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille welcome Toulouse for this France Ligue 1 round clash at Stade Vélodrome early Friday morning Beijing time. I do not often recommend a bet on a heavy favorite with relatively low odds but will make an exemption here.. Marseille are massive favorites here – even bigger than the biggest bookmakers with the largest betting limits estimate. At the time of writing this analysis Thursday afternoon Beijing time the hosts' odds were around 1.50. They currently occupy the 4th best in the standings with 30 points to their account. However, I rate them as the second-best team in this league – the fourth-best in the world. PSG are of course clearly the best team and have not lost a single game so far in Ligue 1 this season. Marseille have been slightly unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) as this number is 31.11. However, the teams above the hosts in the standings – Lens (36 points, xPTS 28.87) and Rennes (31 points, xPTS 26.91) have been very lucky indeed.. If Marseille were in the 2nd place I'm pretty sure their odds would be significantly lower here.. 

Toulouse, on the other hand, currently occupy the 12th place in the standings with 16 points to their account – which is, in fact. 0.34 points less than they would have deserved in terms of expected points. .Even so, the betting market seems to over-value them. Their goal difference is bad 20:27. Marseille have netted the ball 26 times so far and allowed just 13. This is the third-lowest number in this league. We must remember that Toulouse were promoted from Ligue 2 for this season and are a massively smaller team than Marseille by financial resources and players' total market value. They have definitely been better than I, most football journalists - or probably their fans would have expected. I have, as a result, raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. However, I only rate them as the 16th-best team in Ligue 1..

 More than half of Toulouse's regular starters have performed clearly over their normal level this season. Toulouse have been a horribly bad team away from home so far this season- Indeed, they have not won any of their latest eight games on the road losing six of these eight games.. Marseille have not achieved the best possible results at Stade Vélodrome recently but do have loyal, loud and very demanding fans so the home advantage is substantial here! Marseille played in the UEFA Champions League this autumn and performed pretty well despite not qualifying for the Playoffs. They grabbed six points and had a score difference of 8:8.  Toulouse can only dream of something like this. Now they can concentrate on Ligue 1 which surely helps a lot as the players will be more fresh, there will probably be less injuries and squad rotation is not  really needed..