Volos VS AEK Athens

Volos host AEK Athens for this Greek Super League round 15 battle at Panthessaliko Stadium early Thursday morning Beijing time. There is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are clear favorites here.. However,  the odds of around 1.35 offered by the biggest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers with largest stake limits on AEK to win are way too low! With today's expected lineups I see them having a 61% chance of traveling home with all three points.Their odds with the -1.5 goals' handicap is also too low. My fans and I will take advantage of this and bet on the hosts with the +1.5 goal's handicap option. All we need is for Volos to avoid losing by more than one goal's difference. The probability for this is 65%! AEK are one of the most traditional, successful and biggest by financial resources in Greek football. However, they have not done particularly well by their standards in recent years.. Last season they finished in 3rd place but recorded 19 points less than the reigning champions, Olympiacos Piraeus. They have played in UEFA's club competitions and also have quite a big number of fans which probably does affect the odds.. This season definitely looks better for them and I have raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my in-depth preseason analysis. However, they have now become too ”hot” on the betting market. They have 32 points to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved a little less. They are unarguably in fine form and have not lost a match for a long time. However, their opponents in the last two matches have been weak.. 

Indeed, a week ago the visitors beat lowly Lamia 3-0 at home priced around 1.20 to win by the bookies. Lamia have taken just nine points and have a score difference of 6:23. Volos are massively better than Lamia! Before this they beat a small team, Kifisias, 2-0 at a neutral location in a Greek Cup clash 2-0 again as massive favorites. They did deserve the win but did not fully convince me. The ball possession was 53-47% for them and Kifisias also had their chances.. The betting market should really start respecting Volos much more! They are not a big team by financial resources or players' total market value. However, they play well as a team, have an excellent coach and according to my sources also have a great team spirit. Let's remember that they beat AEK in August 1-0 away from home. They also took all three points in Athens last season in January through 2-1 win! In their most recent match they faced Asteras Tripolis as quite clear underdogs. Both teams had their chances but it was a goalless draw. Before this they were beaten by the best team in this league Panathinaikos away from home as huge underdogs. The hosts did fully deserve the  win but the match was still a bit more balanced than the final score (3-0) would suggest. Volos are having a very positive season and have grabbed 25 points and occupy the 5th place in the standings. I would perhaps be a little surprised to see them finish in the top-5 but they are once again under-rated here.. They have very loud and loyal fans and they have won five of their latest six home matches!