Porto B VS Farense

Porto B and Farense lock horns in this Liga Portugal2 round 14 clash at Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio. This league is of mediocre level by European standards and the difference to Liga Portugal is quote big. Even so, we have every reason to expect a rather good-level match here by Liga Portugal2 standards.. The biggest bookies with largest stake limits see this match as more or less a 50/50% game without an actual favorite.. However, I would be too surprised to see the odds on the hosts come before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on Porto B. In my view with today's expected lineups the hosts are solid favorites with a 44% chance of taking all three points. The league table is quite misleading here and is probably the main reason behind Farense being offered too low odds on the betting market. Indeed, Farense currently occupy the 2nd place in the standings with 28 points to their account. They have netted the ball 25 times so far. They have definitely been better than I - or probably the betting market, their fans and most football journalists would have expected before the season started.. Yes, I have, as a result, raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class but would certainly not be very surprised to see them drop out of the top-2 despite the six-point gap to Estrela, Vilafranquense and Benfica B.. Their offense has been the area where they have improved the most from last season. It has been more creative and has had a better structure than 2021-2022. However, we must realize that in terms of expected goals (xG) they would have deserved just 22.13 goals. Furthermore, they have been lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) as that number is only 24.86. Their defense has been okay but not great – they have conceded 13 goals but the expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is 15.22. Porto B have allowed just 12 goals – only two teams have conceded a smaller number of goals. In this area of the game the hosts do have clear an edge!

Porto B play quite defensive football even in front of their fans and often rely on counter attacks to score. This is something they are indeed quite good at! They have played six home games so far in this league this season with a score difference of 4:2. Overall they have scored 14 goals but their xG is much higher - 17.21. Mainly because of Porto B's style of play the goal expectancy here is, in my opinion, lower than the betting market believes. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 62%. The probability of a draw is 31% and would be enough for my fans and me to win with the recommended +0.5 goals's handicap option on Porto B. Let's remember that Porto's xPTS is 23.23 and have potential for a clear improvement during the remainder of the season! Last season they finished in 10th place with 42 points but would have deserved several more points in terms of xPTS. Farense, on the other hand, ended up in the 11th place with 41 points to their account. They have now lost three games in a row on the road and allowed 11 goals in these matches!. One of these three games was against a very strong team, Porto, though, but still the 0-6 loss was an abysmal performance.. Porto, on the other hand have lost just one of their latest five games at their stadium.. In their most recent match Farense were, rather weirdly in my view, the favorites on the betting market away from home against Rio Ave but deservedly lost 1-2. The hosts had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. In their most recent match in this league Farense did deserve the home win over Trofense. However, the 3-1 win flatters them and they were massive favorites in this match – priced around 1.30 to win by the bookmakers. I was not too convinced by their performance! Furthermore, a good example of very undeserved points they have grabbed is the match in round 12 when they beat Penafiel 2-0 away from home as favorites despite the hosts having close to 60% ball possession and and recording much more goal attempts (12-3), attacks (145-92) and dangerous attacks – 64-25. Lastly I want to mention the according to Transfermarkt.com the hosts' players have a total market value of almost 18 million euros. Farense's squad is valued at approximately seven million..

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波尔图B VS法兰斯

波尔图B和法兰斯在葡萄牙第14轮的比赛中在豪尔赫·桑帕约博士球场交锋。按照欧洲标准，这个联赛的水平一般，与葡萄牙甲级联赛的差距很大。即便如此，我们有充分的理由期待以葡萄牙甲级联赛的标准来看，这是一场相当高水平的比赛。有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司认为这场比赛或多或少是50/50的比赛，没有真正的最爱。然而，如果在开球前看到东道主的赔率，我会感到非常惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在波尔图b身上。在我看来，从今天的预期阵容来看，东道主是最受欢迎的球队，有44%的几率拿到三分。这里的排名表很容易误导人，这可能是法伦斯在博彩市场上赔率过低的主要原因。事实上，法兰斯目前以28分排名第二。到目前为止，他们已经得分25次。他们的表现肯定比我好，也可能比博彩市场、他们的球迷和大多数足球记者在赛季开始前的预期要好。是的，我已经，因此，提高了他们的实力评级，反映了球队的纯粹等级，但当然不会非常惊讶地看到他们跌出前2，尽管与埃斯特雷拉，维拉弗兰奎塞和本菲卡B队有6分的差距。他们的进攻是上赛季进步最大的地方。它比2021-2022赛季更有创意，结构也更好。然而，我们必须意识到，就预期进球数(xG)而言，他们只应该得到22.13个进球。此外，他们的期望分数(xPTS)只有24.86分，在这方面是幸运的。他们的防守还可以，但不是很好——他们已经丢了13个球，但预期失球数(xGA)是15.22个。波尔图B只丢了12个球——只有两支球队的失球数比波尔图B少。在这方面的比赛，东道主确实有明显的优势!

波尔图B踢的是防守足球，即使在他们的球迷面前也是如此，他们经常依靠反击来得分。这是他们确实很擅长的事情!本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中打了6个主场比赛，比分差为4:2。总的来说，他们已经进了14个球，但是他们的xG要高得多——17.21球。主要是因为波尔图B的比赛风格，在我看来，这里的进球期望比博彩市场认为的要低。总进球数在2.5球以下的概率为62%。平局的概率是31%，这足以让我的球迷和我在波尔图b上获胜，因为推荐的+0.5个进球的障碍选项。让我们记住，波尔图的xPTS是23.23，在赛季剩余的时间里有明显的提高!上赛季他们以42分排名第十，但在xPTS方面应该得到更多的分数。另一方面，法兰斯以41分的成绩排在第11位。他们已经在客场连输三场，在这些比赛中丢了11个球!这三场比赛中的一场是对阵一支非常强大的球队，波尔图，尽管如此，0-6的失利仍然是一场糟糕的表现。另一方面，波尔图在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，在我看来相当奇怪的是，在客场对阵里约热内卢Ave的比赛中，Farense是博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队，但1-2输了。东道主拥有57%的控球率，记录了更多的进球尝试、攻击和危险攻击。在他们最近的一场联赛中，法伦瑟在主场战胜特伦瑟是当之无愧的。然而，3-1的胜利让他们感到高兴，他们在这场比赛中是最大的热门——博彩公司对获胜的定价约为1.30美元。我对他们的表现不太信服!此外，在第12轮的比赛中，他们以2-0的比分击败了佩纳菲耶尔，尽管东道主拥有近60%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(12-3)，进攻(145-92)和危险的进攻(64-25)，但他们却得到了一个非常不应得的分数。最后我想提到的是，根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，东道主球员的总市值接近1800万欧元。法兰斯的球队价值大约700万英镑。