Academico Viseu VS Boavista

Acedemico Viseu and Boavista lock horns in this Portuguese League Cup quarter-final clash at Estádio do Fontelo early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The largest, usually pretty smart bookies with the biggest stake limits see this match as more or less a 50-50% battle - at least at the time of writing this analysis Tuesday evening. However, the odds on the hosts have been coming down today – a totally correct direction in my view. I definitely see them as the favorites here with today's expected line ups! With the recommended +0.5 goal's handicap - a draw would be enough – my fans and I have an over 70% chance to continue the good run betting on this competition. A huge number of fans is not expected at Estádio do Fontelo but home teams have indeed been strong in this competition which is definitely not the main priority for either team. In matches like this the extra boost from fans is often surprisingly meaningful, especially if the hosts are done by one goal's difference later into the match.. It is useful to keep in mind that there is quite often some squad rotation in the League Cup, especially with the very best teams like Porto, Benfica, Sporting CP and Braga which, in many cases, can lead to even big odds movements near the kickoff.

The hosts are the smaller club here by financial resources and players' total market value but the difference is not too big though.. Boavista play in Liga Portugal and their players' total market value is about 20 million euros according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermerkt.com. The hosts' number is about 8 million -. too low. The 20 million is definitely too high in my view – at least four guys are over-rated. They were in horribly bad in Liga Portugal before the World Cup break failing to win any of their latest five matches – and losing three of them. Their goal difference is also weak 14:23 and the number of 17 points they have grabbed is more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). I expect them to drop down in the standings during the rest of the season. In the League Cup they have obviously done better winning 2/3 games in the group phase but the number could easily have been just five or even four. They have not fully convinced me and the betting market seems to have reacted too much to their latest results.. The hosts have won five matches in a row and 7/8 games at home and have avoid a defeat in 14(!) of their latest games. They are having a pretty strong season in Liga Portugal2 and their xPTS is 22.98 - the actual number is 20. They still have a chance to fight for promotion at the end of the seaon.