Croatia VS Morocco

Morocco and Croatia lock horns in this World Cup 3rd place game at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha Saturday evening Beijing time. I expect both teams to be motivated and expect a pretty entertaining game. 3rd place matches are usually pretty high-scoring – not only in football but also in for example ice-hockey as well.. The betting market has realized this and the odds on over 2.5 goals are much lower here than when the teams met in the in the first round of group stage.. I would say it is a 50-50% situation between over and under 2.5 total goals being scored. It was a very balanced match the previous time and no goals were scored. Croatia recorded 65% ball possession but Morocco created more scoring attempts - 10-8. Neither team recorded much in expected goals (xG). The biggest, usually pretty sharp bookies with the largest stake limits offered odds around 2.25 for Croatia to win. After the match we could all see that those odds were way too low! Now their odds to win during the 90 minutes of play are around 2.35. I cannot agree with this! In my view Morocco have been much better than I expected before the tournament started and I have, as a result, significantly raised their power rating that reflects the teams pure class. I do not think football fans, most football journalists, pro bettors and certainly the betting would have guesses how good a team they are! Their biggest strenght has been defense. It has been brilliantly organized - almost all players have been exceptionally close to each other on the pitch which has meant that the opponent has had very little space to pass the ball to – especially near Morocco's goal. Their defenders have also been skilled enough individually to block/ otherwise handle the few shots/scoring chances the opponent has been create! They have ran into some injury troubles now though – however, it was the same thing against Portugal as well. Saiss will most probable not play on Saturday. He did play against France but we could all see that his leg was far from 100%.. At the time of writing this Aguerd's and Mazraoui's situation is questionable at the time of writing this preview late Friday evening Beijing time. I am, however, positive the Moroccans doctors and physical therapist will do absolutely anything for these fine players to be able to take the pitch. However, we have to ”speculate” whether they will be able to play or not - ie. Lower Morocco's probability estimation for the win by some 2-3%. As for Croatia Marcelo Brozovic's, 30, situation is also unclear. He is a terrific midfielder who plays for the big Italian club, Inter Milan.

Motivation plays a much bigger role in matches for the third place than normally. We can, of course, never know the the players' state of mind but I still believe Moroccans are slightly more hungry for the win. It would be the first medal for any African team in a World Cup. Croatia lost the final four years ago in Russia and still have many same players in the squad. These guys, for example Real Madrid's excellent midfielder Luca Modric, 37, of course wanted to lift the trophy this time and probably 100% motivated to play for third place. Moreover, Croatia's players have earned more many and enjoyed more success on average during their careers than Moroccans which might also have small efefct on the motivation – the two or three ”extra %” to fight like a wild animal for every ball. This is often crucial in matches were the teams are very balanced. There will be a massive number of Morroco's fans at Khalifa International Stadium – not only their countrymen but also local people, Africans and Arabs. I expect some 80% of the crowd to be cheering for Morocco. This means they have a not ”full” but still significant home advantage which is perhaps not given enough emphasis to by many bettors.. We must remember that the bookmakers adjust their odds based on what bettors bet on – mainly because of risk management. Indeed, in big events like World Cups the odds very often do not reflect the actual probabilites – or the probabalities the oddsmakers have come up with.. Indeed, there is a lot of ”not so smart money” in the betting market in massive matches like this. The support from the fans might indeed be a crucial thing here between two tired teams. Croatia have played more football so far - two extra times. Morocco needed to play an extra time once - and beat Spain through penalties. However, Croatia have had 24 hours more to recover after the semi-final which, of course, favors them,

I do not want to praise Morocco too much though. They have had some luck on the way but so have Croatia. Japan could easily have beaten them in a quite balanced match. Furthermore, Brazil were definitely the better team against them but defended incredibly bad in the extra time allowing Croatia to go for a 4 on 4 attack which led to the 1-1 goal late into the extra time. Let's not forget that both Spain and especially Portugal did have the chances to score despite that fact that Morocco did do quite well when taking a look at the expected goals (xG) numbers - 1.25 for them and 1.65 for Portugal. Spain were almost hilariously helpless offensively trying to break Morocco.. Was it really such a big surprise though..? They had the same problem in many matches in the EURO 2020 and against Japan and Germany in this tournament. As weird as it may sound - taking into account what a massive football country Spain are - they just did not have a true world-class striker! Lastly I want to mention that Croatia have created a total of 7.04 in xG in this tournament – and their opponents' number (combined) is 11.67. As for Morocco the numbers are 4.89 and 7.65 – ie. put together better than Croatia! Croatia's defense is indeed not as good as many fa fans seem to believe. Argentina gave them no chance at all in the semi-finals winning 3-0! Morocco showed against France that they can attack as well despite not scoring. They did, however, record a decent number of xG! We did bet on France but once again Morocco very a positive surprise. This match has no favorite and betting on Morocco is the smart choice!

GOOD LUCK!

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克罗地亚VS摩洛哥

北京时间周六晚，摩洛哥和克罗地亚在多哈哈利法国际体育场举行的世界杯季军之战中交锋。我希望两支球队都有动力，期待一场非常有趣的比赛。第三名的比赛通常是相当高的得分——不仅在足球中，而且在例如冰球中也是如此。博彩市场已经意识到这一点，超过2.5球的赔率比两队在小组赛第一轮相遇时要低得多。我想说的是，总进球数在2.5球以上和2.5球以下之间的比例是50% -50%。上一场比赛非常平衡，没有进球。克罗地亚的控球率为65%，但摩洛哥创造了更多的得分机会- 10-8。两队的预期进球数都不高。规模最大、通常相当精明的博彩公司开出了2.25左右的赔率，赌克罗地亚赢。比赛结束后，我们都发现这个几率太低了!现在他们在90分钟的比赛中获胜的赔率约为2.35。我不同意!在我看来，摩洛哥的表现比我在比赛开始前预期的要好得多，因此，我大大提高了他们的实力评级，这反映了这支球队的纯粹水平。我不认为球迷，大多数足球记者，职业投注者，当然还有投注者会猜测他们是一支多么优秀的球队!他们最大的优势是防守。比赛组织得非常好——场上几乎所有球员都非常接近对方，这意味着对手几乎没有传球的空间——尤其是在摩洛哥的球门附近。他们的防守者也有足够的技术来阻止/处理对手创造的少数射门/得分机会!他们现在遇到了一些伤病问题——然而，对葡萄牙的比赛也是一样。赛斯很可能不会参加周六的比赛。他确实参加了对法国队的比赛，但我们都能看到他的腿远没有完全康复。在写这篇文章的时候，阿盖尔德和马兹拉维的情况在北京时间周五晚上写这篇预告的时候是有问题的。然而，我很肯定摩洛哥的医生和理疗师会为这些优秀的球员做任何事情，让他们能够上场。然而，我们不得不“推测”他们是否能够发挥。将摩洛哥获胜的概率估计降低2-3%。至于克罗地亚的马塞洛·布罗佐维奇，30岁，情况也不明朗。他是一名出色的中场球员，效力于意大利豪门国际米兰。

在争夺第三名的比赛中，动力的作用要比平时大得多。当然，我们永远无法知道球员们的心态，但我仍然相信摩洛哥人更渴望胜利。这将是非洲球队在世界杯上的第一块奖牌。克罗地亚队在四年前的俄罗斯世界杯上输掉了决赛，但他们的阵容中仍然有很多相同的球员。这些人，比如皇马出色的中场球员，37岁的卢卡·莫德里奇(Luca Modric)，这次当然想举起奖杯，而且可能100%有动力争夺第三名。此外，克罗地亚球员在职业生涯中比摩洛哥球员平均赚得更多，享受更多的成功，这也可能对他们的动力产生很小的影响——两三个“额外的%”像野兽一样争夺每一个球。这在球队平衡的比赛中是非常重要的。在哈利法国际体育场将会有大量的摩洛哥球迷，不仅是他们的同胞，还有当地的非洲人和阿拉伯人。我预计80%的观众会为摩洛哥队加油。这意味着他们有一个不是“充分的”但仍然显著的主场优势，这可能没有给予足够的重视，许多投注者。我们必须记住，博彩公司根据投注者下注的内容来调整赔率，这主要是因为风险管理。的确，在世界杯这样的重大赛事中，赔率往往不能反映实际的概率——或者是博彩公司得出的概率。事实上，在像这样的大型比赛中，博彩市场上有很多“不那么聪明的钱”。在两支疲惫的球队之间，球迷的支持可能确实是至关重要的。克罗地亚队迄今为止踢了更多的比赛——两次加时赛。摩洛哥需要打加时赛一次，并通过点球击败西班牙。然而，克罗地亚在半决赛后还有24小时的恢复时间，这当然对他们有利，

不过，我不想过分赞扬摩洛哥。他们运气不错，但克罗地亚也一样。日本队本可以在一场相当势均力敌的比赛中轻松击败他们。此外，巴西在对阵他们的时候绝对是更好的球队，但在加时赛中防守非常糟糕，让克罗地亚打出了4对4的进攻，导致加时赛最后阶段1-1的比分。我们不要忘记，西班牙和葡萄牙都有机会进球，尽管摩洛哥在预期进球数(xG)方面表现不错——他们是1.25个，葡萄牙是1.65个。西班牙在试图突破摩洛哥的进攻上几乎是可笑的无能为力。这真的有那么大的惊喜吗?他们在2020年欧洲杯的许多比赛中以及在本届欧洲杯对阵日本和德国的比赛中都遇到了同样的问题。这听起来很奇怪，考虑到西班牙是一个足球大国，他们就是没有一个真正的世界级前锋!最后我想提一下克罗地亚在本届比赛中总共创造了7.04个xG，而他们的对手总共创造了11.67个xG。摩洛哥的数字是4.89和7.65。比克罗地亚还强!克罗地亚的防守确实不像许多球迷认为的那么好。阿根廷队在半决赛中以3-0获胜，没有给他们任何机会!摩洛哥在对阵法国的比赛中展示了他们在没有进球的情况下也能进攻。然而，他们确实录下了相当数量的xG!我们确实把赌注押在了法国身上，但摩洛哥又一次给我们带来了惊喜。这场比赛没有谁最喜欢谁，押注摩洛哥队是明智的选择!

< / p > < p >祝你好运!