In my opinion Chelsea have really good chances to make win in today's match up. I see couple of good reasons for that.

1. Chelsea have extremely strong record at home against Everton. They didn't lost against them at home in last 24 Premier League matches in a row. They won 4 of last 5 such matches, kept clean sheet 4 times in the process.

2. Chelsea with almost best possible line up. On the other Everton have serious squad problems - key central defender Mina is unavailable. Key defender Colemans is doubtful, same as key winger Rodriguez and midfielder Davies.

3. Chelsea looked much better in last round than Everton. Chelsea won on away against defending champions Liverpool and that should give them a lot of confidence. According to the expected goals model, that was fully deserved result. Everton in last round played on away against one of the worst team in league WBA - they won there 1:0, but that was lucky win. According to expected goals model WBA should make at least one point as they had 1.43 expected goals scored, Everton had 1.28.

4. Chelsea really improved since Tuchel came to the club, they are unbeaten in 10 matches in a row. In 2021 only City won more points than Chelsea.

5. Chelsea looks very solid at home - they scored 23 goals (according to expected goals model they should score 24.73) and they conceded 11 goals (they should 12.65) in 13 home matches. Everton on the paper looks really good, but they had a lot of luck and their results wasn't fully deserved. They scored 21 goals in away matches (according to the expected goals model they should score 18.69). They conceded 13 goals, but they should concede 17.63.

6. Chelsea scored more goals and they have in average more shots on target per game than Everton (5.1 against 4.0). Chelsea have more solid defense as they conceded 0.4 goals per game less and kept 6 clean sheets more. As well they are better with the ball - 61.4% average ball possession in current season (Everton 47%), 550 accurate passes per game (Everton 377).

我认为切尔西确实有很好的机会在今天的比赛中获胜。有6个很好的理由。

1.切尔西主场对埃弗顿的战绩非常出色。在过去的24场英超联赛中没有输给埃弗顿。他们在最近的5场比赛中赢得了4场，在此过程中保持了4次零封。

2.切尔西几乎是最好的阵容。另一方面，埃弗顿队有严重的阵容问题-关键中后卫米娜不可用。关键后卫科尔曼斯与关键边锋罗德里格斯和中场戴维斯出战存疑。

3.上轮切尔西的表现看上去比埃弗顿好得多。切尔西在与卫冕冠军利物浦的比赛中胜出，这应该给他们带来很大的信心。根据预期目标进球，这是完全正常的结果。埃弗顿在上轮对阵西布朗的表现不佳-他们1：0取胜，但这是幸运的胜利。西布朗的预期进球数为1.43，埃弗顿为1.28。

4.自从图赫尔执教球队以来，切尔西的确进步了很多，他们连续10场比赛保持不败。在2021年，只有曼城赢得了比切尔西更多的积分。

5.切尔西的主场表现非常稳定-他们打入23球（根据预期的进球模型，他们应得分24.73），并且在13场主场比赛中他们失球11球（应为12.65）。埃弗顿的阵容看上去确实不错，但是他们运气很好，他们的结果也不是完全应得的。他们在客场比赛中攻入21球（但预期进球只有18.69）。他们失了13球，但预期失球是17.63。

6.切尔西进球较多，平均每场比赛的射门次数超过埃弗顿（5.1比4.0）。切尔西的防守更为稳固，因为他们每场失球只有0.4个，并且比埃弗顿多6次零封。同样，他们的控球能力也更好-本赛季平均控球率为61.4％（埃弗顿47％），550每场比赛传球准确（Everton 377）。

所以综上，看好切尔西取胜。