France VS Morocco
Morocco try to challenge France in this World Cup Semi-final battle at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor early Thursday morning Beijing time. Indeed, they will surely give everything they have, fight like wild animals and even pray their god, Allah, for more strength but very probably their fairy tale - an amazing run indeed that needs to be respected– ends today! Yes, most fans in Africa and in the Arab world are cheering for them and a big number of Moroccans are expected at the stadium today..According news reports some 30 extra flights have been organized from Morocco to Qatar! Morocco do have a small ”home advantage” as a result but I whilst I have taken this factor into account, of course, I think it has been given too much emphasis in the media and seems to have affected the odds.. The stakes could not be higher so no team really needs extra motivation from the crowd.. Furthermore, I do not think the referees will favor either team in a unfair way here. As a football fan and a professional bettor and surely FIFA as well - I would love to see France and Argentina in the final in a balanced battle were both teams try to attacks regularly.. Morocco have been dangerous an counter attacks and I do understand why they play so defensive football and their coach does deserve all the praise he has received worldwide. But unlike Spain and Portugal - France have world-class defense.. How many shots on goal will Morocco record - probably just a few unless France break them early and they will have to take massive risks trying to score.. Even so, in the football fans' minds Morocco are already "heroes and winners" in this tournament. However, emotions and football betting are two different things..
Yes, we all know how well Morocco have defended but they quite possibly miss several key players here. They struggled with the same squad issue against Portugal but quite surprisingly Portugal played a stupid game tactically and could not penetrate Morocco's excellent defensive unit., Yes, Portugal are a top-8 country in the World but France are still much better! We must remember this.. They are, after all, the reigning World Champions and the disappointing EURO 2020 does not change this fact - or decrease their potential! Unlike many times before in international tournaments they also seem to have a good team spirit and only some minor arguments within the team... I want to highlight that even if they were able to play Aguerd, Saiss and Ziyech are most probably at their best and stopping Mbappe, Giroud, Griezmann & co seems to be too much to ask.. These guys, especially Mbappe, are used to playing against very well-organized, solid defenses and will not need many chances to score.. Let's not remember that both Spain and especially Portugal did have the chances to score despite that fact that Morocco did do quite well when taking a look at the expected goals (xG) numbers - 1.25 for them and 1.65 for Portugal. Spain were almost hilariously helpless offensively trying to break Morocco.. Was it really a big surprise though..? They had the same problem in many matches in the EURO 2020 and against Japan and Germany in this tournament. As weird as it may sound - taking into account what a massive football country Spain are - they just did not have a world-class striker!
Matches with massive stakes are often in the end decided by the very best and most individually-skilled and creative players - like Leo Messi yesterday.. France have stunning individual skill in Mbappe, a top-3 striker in the world: Despite everything he has won already so far I still think he is often under-rated.. No, he usually does not defend but does Messi?.. or did Maradona or Ronaldo.. He is like a predator waiting for the chance to score, if he is not offered quality assists he can trick several defenders and create a chance from nowhere all by himself.. And yes, he has a big ego but which super stars do not..? I also want to mention that Morocco have played above their normal level in all matches except for the Canada game which they still won 2.1 though. There is, after all, a reason why they are in the 22th place in the FIFA tanking.. Furthermore, France got to rest their most important players against Tunisia in the last round of group phase – the unlucky 0-1 loss meant nothing and also have had a few hours more to recover after the last game than Morocco who played 30 minutes extra against Spain.. France should be more fresh here and this does affect the probabilities more than many bettors probable realize.. In all honesty, I do not think Morocco are much better than Poland by true class - and France totally crushed them in the first round of play offs as below 1.30 favorites to win according to the bookies.. I admit that France were a little lame offensive against England who in fact even created more in xG. The penalties, of course, have a massive effect on the xG though.. Moreover, the match was expected to be almost 50-50% according to the betting market. Great teams usually find a way to win even when it is not their best day! My estimation is 69% for France to win here during the 90 minutes of play over the already over-hyped Africans!
