Burton Albion VS Accrington

Burton host Accrington for this EFL Trophy 1/8-finals clash at Pirelli Stadium in Burton upon Trent early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The biggest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest betting limits see the hosts as solid favorites but I must disagree! I see Accrington as (pretty narrow) favorites. The stakes have got higher now in the Play Offs which often leads to a bit more cautious football and I definitely see the match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. Unlike the bookmakers, my estimation is that the under 2.5 goals is more probable than over 2.5 goals.. My probability estimation for a draw in this balanced clash is 30%. With the recommended handicap on the visitors – a draw would be enough - my fans' and my chance of winning is 67%. Both teams play in League One, the third tier of English football. Neither club is, however, having a strong season so far.. However, the visitors have been clearly better as a whole this season. They have 21 points to their account and have a score difference of 20:31. They are in fine form and have lost just one of their latest seven games. Moreover, they would have deserved a win in their most recent match but it was a 1-1 draw as home as clear underdogs against Oxford United. The visitors only managed to shoot once on Accrington's goal!

The hosts, on the other, are in the 22th place in the standings in this league with a total 24 clubs. They have managed to grab just 16 points and have an abysmal score difference of 27:42! Indeed, their defense has been horribly shaky this season. The 42 goals allowed is clearly the biggest number in this league.. Whilst Accrington do not have massive offensive power I would not be surprised to see them score more than once today! They have, however, improved their level, especially defensively but not as much as the betting market seems to think which has led to over.valuation in today's clash. The last time they managed to keep a cleans sheet was over a month ago in FA Cup against a very small team, Needham Market, who play in Southern League Central Division(!) Burton won 2-0 at home but were not impressive at all! In League One they have not succeeded in shutting down the opponent's offense for a very long time. They did play pretty well in their most recent match as underdogs though and too a point in front of their fans against Derby though a 1-1 draw. Derby were, however, not at their best in this match. Before this they were very lucky as MK Dons were the much better team despite the 1-1 final score. They recorded 70% ball possession and 18 scoring attempts – Burton's number was eight. Considering their performances on the pitch it is almost a miracle that they have not lost any of their latest seven games! I also want to mention that Burton have had just two full days to recover from the intense match against Derby.. This is far from optimal in professional football and I expect the visitors to have more energy in this battle!