We all know the league situation, so I try to outline how I expect this one to go tonight.

In December Real scored an eaely goal and kept Atletico chances at a low level, and the Oblak blunder was the last straw. Deserved win for Real. Tonight the biggest changes in lineups are the absence of Sergio Ramos and Carvajal.

Benzema is perhaps not fully fit, but for this match he will start if he can stand on two feet. At Atletico the big changes compared to their latest games are the returns of Carrasco and Trippier, which means that all Atletico positions can be now filled with their natural holders! As Simeone would be at half happy with a draw here we can expect a very defensive approach from him, and Felix not starting. A 5-3-2 is very likely.

Carrasco and Trippier? They are two of the best goal expectation creators of the team, and even if the results of Atletico did not drop a lot while their absense, the performances did and individual finishing class of Suarez was needed to keep them on the top.

Trippier is back, we get Llorente back to the central midfield to partner Koke and Lemar, and one of the key aspects of the game is how well Real defender Mendy can stop Trippier from key passes and crosses.

In regard to their horrible injury situation recently Real have fought good results and especially defensively been solid, but are the results misleading? They have met mostly weak teams, and were extremely lucky in their trip to Bergamo to face Atalanta.

Only good team in this run is Sociedad, and Real needed a late goal for a point. I do not rate wins over bottom teams too highly.

Atletico will sit deep again, and if Real are to win they need to attract the Atletico 3 central midfielders higher up, and let Kroos to utilize the free space with his diagonal balls, and hope for Vinicius and Asensio to be on a good challenging mood to feed the striker in the box. But is it Benzema, is he fit enough?

Real are almost desperate to win here, they have no depth from the bench, and apart from Benzema they have no scoring strenght.

At asian handicap I would take Atletico moneyline, here I am forced for more radical choice. I am expecting a low tempo encounter with not too many chances against teams and coaches who know everything about each other. 

A draw. 

Below a possible lineup from local media. It could be this, but personally I believe that there is 3-5-2 at Atletico, and Correa to replace Felix. We will see, enjoy the game!