Feirense VS Santa Clara

Feirense and Santa Clara lock horns in this Portuguese League Cup Group G round 4 at Estadio Marcolino de Castro in Santa Maria da Feira. However, in reality both teams have played just two matches so far in this competition. Feirense have taken two draws so far – Santa Clara have suffered one defeat and played one draw. Feirense play in Liga Portugal2 and are having a pretty good season. They have grabbed 19 points so far and occupy the 7th place but I see them having potential to finish in top-5. Their goal difference is 14:9. Indeed, their offense is not very strong and it does lack some creativity as a whole and their strikers' individual skill level is not super-good either. They should pass the ball faster and at better level of accuracy near the opponent's goal. However, their defense has been stunningly good and they have allowed just nine goals in Liga Portugal2 this season. This is the clearly the lowest number in this league! For example Moreirense, who top the standings, have conceded 14 goals.. Santa Clara have also had some offensive problems and have netted the ball just 11 goals in Liga Portugal so far. This is the third-lowest number in this league - only the two worst teams - Maritimo (8 goals) and Pacos Ferreira (7) have scored less goals! Indeed, The number of expected goals is low in this match – even lower than the betting market thinks! The biggest, usually pretty sharp bookies estimate the goal expectancy here to be about 2.1 – I would set the number at just 1.89. The draw - with a probability of 35% - would not surprise anyone. This would be enough for my fans and me to win once again betting on this this Portuguese League Cup. In my view, Feirense are narrow favorites to take all three points and with the recommended +0.5 goal's handicap option the chance of winning is 72%. Feirense have, quite amazingly played five draws in a row - before this streak they took a fine win over Penafiel 1-0 away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies. None of these five (draw) matches have seen more than two goals being scored - two if the five were goalless. In their most recent match they were okay away from home against Oliveirense. It was a balanced and a pretty boring match to watch and no goals were scored. Before this they were, however, very good – also away from home - against a quite good team, Arouca, who currently occupy the 8th place in Liga Portugal. They were clear underdogs in this match but took a 1-1 draw.

It has not been a good season Santa Clara in the league so far. They have won just one of their five most recent five games and were disappointing in their most recent match as big favorites - priced around 1.55 to win on the betting market. It was a 1-1 draw at home against Oliveirense in League Cup. They were slightly the better team on the pitch were far from their best. Indeed, they have recently looked much worse than last season when they even managed to finish in the 7th place with 40 points to their account. This was, however, six points more than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS). Their weak goal difference of 38:54 reflects the season pretty well.. The 7th place was much higher than I, the betting market or most football analysts would have believed before the season of 2011-2022 started. It seems to me that the betting market fails to realize how much their level has come down this season and still keep over-valuing them..They have grabbed just 13 points in Liga Portugal. Their position in the standings is 14th in this league with a total of 18 teams and they might even have put a lot of effort to avoid relegation this season - this is very probably their main priority this season.. I would not be surprised to see their coach Mario Silva to rotate his squad here.. Moreover, I think Silva is an over-rated coach which might have a small effect on their odds. For Feirense, on the other hand, this is a pretty important game and a large number of home fans are expected to be cheering for their team Estadio Marcolino de Castro. Facing a Liga Portugal team is always a great opportunity for talented younger players to prove their skills and perhaps move to a bigger club in the future.. Furthermore, Feirense have suffered just one defeat in eight of their most recent matches in front of their fans.

Before the Oliveirense game Santa Clara were lame and lost to Leixoes 1-2 away from home. They did, however, beat Estoril as favorites according to the bookies 3-1 at home on the 14th of November. The final score is, however, somewhat misleading as the visitors had 65% ball possession. Estoril also recorded more scoring attempts, total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Santa Clara did record much more shots on goal though.. They are usually not a very convincing team away from home and even lost five matches on the road in row August-October. Let's also remember that they have lost seven of their most recent 10 matches! I do not expect Feirense to be very aggressive offensive here as Santa Clara can be deadly on counter attacks and the home fans surely realize this very well. The visitors' strikers are, after all, more skilled than most strikers in Liga Portugal2 that Feirense's defenders usually play against.. Even 0-0 would not be surprise here!

费伦斯和圣克拉拉在葡萄牙联赛杯 G 组第 4 轮比赛中在圣玛丽亚达费拉的马尔科利诺德卡斯特罗球场角逐。然而，实际上两支球队在本次比赛中到目前为止只打了两场比赛。到目前为止，费伦斯取得了两场平局——圣克拉拉输了一场，打了一场平局。 Feirense 在 Liga Portugal2 踢球，并且有一个相当不错的赛季。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了 19 分，排名第七，但我认为他们有潜力进入前五。他们的净胜球是 14:9。的确，他们的进攻不是很强，整体上确实缺乏一些创造力，锋线的个人技术水平也不是很好。他们应该在对手球门附近传球更快、更准确。然而，他们的防守出奇地好，本赛季他们在葡萄牙联赛中只丢了 9 个球。这分明是这个联盟最低的数字！比如排名第一的莫雷伦斯，已经丢了 14 个球.. Santa Clara 也有一些进攻问题，到目前为止在 Liga Portugal 只进了 11 个球。这是这个联赛中第三低的数字——只有两支最差的球队——马里蒂莫（8 球）和帕科斯费雷拉（7 球）的进球更少！事实上，这场比赛的预期进球数很低——甚至比博彩市场认为的还要低！最大的、通常非常敏锐的博彩公司估计这里的目标期望值约为 2.1——我会将这个数字设置为 1.89。平局 - 概率为 35% - 不会让任何人感到惊讶。这足以让我和我的球迷在本届葡萄牙联赛杯上再次获胜。在我看来，费伦斯是全取三分的热门球队，在推荐的 +0.5 进球让分选项下，获胜的几率为 72%。费伦斯令人惊讶地连续打了五场平局——在这次连胜之前，他们在客场以 1-0 的出色表现以明显的劣势击败佩纳菲耶尔博彩公司。这五场（平局）比赛中没有一场进球超过两个——如果这五场比赛没有进球，则为两个。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场对阵奥利维伦斯时表现不错。这是一场平衡且非常无聊的比赛，没有进球。然而，在此之前，他们在客场对阵一支相当出色的球队 Arouca 时表现非常出色，Arouca 目前在葡萄牙联赛中排名第 8 位。他们在这场比赛中明显处于劣势，但以1-1战平。

到目前为止，圣克拉拉在联赛中并不是一个好赛季。他们在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场，并且在最近的一场比赛中令人失望，因为他们是大热门——在博彩市场上获胜的赔率约为 1.55。联赛杯主场 1-1 战平奥利维伦斯。他们在球场上稍微好一点的球队远非他们最好的。事实上，他们最近看起来比上赛季差得多，当时他们甚至以 40 分的成绩排在第七位。然而，就预期分数 (xPTS) 而言，这比他们应得的多了 6 分。他们 38:54 的微弱净胜球很好地反映了这个赛季。第 7 名比我、博彩市场或大多数足球分析师在 2011-2022 赛季开始前所相信的要高得多。在我看来，博彩市场没有意识到本赛季他们的水平下降了多少，仍然高估了他们……他们只拿下了 13葡萄牙联赛积分榜。他们在联赛中排名第 14 位，共有 18 支球队，他们甚至可能在本赛季为保级付出了很多努力——这很可能是他们本赛季的首要任务。我不会惊讶地看到他们的教练马里奥席尔瓦在这里轮换他的阵容。此外，我认为席尔瓦是一位被高估的教练，这可能对他们的赔率影响很小。另一方面，对于费伦斯来说，这是一场非常重要的比赛，预计会有大量主场球迷为他们的球队马科利诺德卡斯特罗加油。面对西甲葡萄牙队总是有才华的年轻球员证明自己技能的好机会，并可能在未来转会到更大的俱乐部。此外，费伦斯最近八场比赛在球迷面前只输了一场.

在与 Oliveirense 的比赛之前，圣克拉拉表现不佳，在客场以 1-2 输给了 Leixoes。然而，他们确实击败了埃斯托里尔成为夺冠热门根据 11 月 14 日主场 3-1 的公司。然而，最终比分有些误导，因为客队拥有 65% 的控球率。埃斯托里尔还记录了更多的得分尝试、总传球、进攻和危险进攻。不过，圣克拉拉确实记录了更多的射门次数。他们通常不是一支非常有说服力的客场球队，甚至在 8 月至 10 月连续输掉了五场客场比赛。我们还要记住，他们在最近的 10 场比赛中输了 7 场！我不希望费伦斯在这里进攻非常激进，因为圣克拉拉的反击可能是致命的，主场球迷肯定很清楚这一点。毕竟，客队的前锋比费伦斯的后卫经常面对的葡萄牙西甲 2 的大多数前锋更有技术。即使是 0-0 也不足为奇！