More PROFIT from Portugal? 葡联杯里奥阿维VS里斯本
2022-12-08

Tapio

外籍分析师

葡联杯

12/08 04:30

已完赛

解读理由:

Rio Ave VS Sporting CP

Rio Ave and Sporting CP lock horns in this Portuguese League Cup round clash at Estádio do Rio Ave in Vila do Conde early Thursday morning Beijing time. There is a massive difference between the two teams in pure class - especially in terms of offensive players' skill level! The gap in class is certainly much bigger than the Liga Portugal - where both teams play – would suggest! Rio Ave were promoted to the highest tier for this season after topping the Liga Portugal2 standings last season with 72 points and a goal difference of 52:31. However, the difference between the first tier and second tier is substantial. Rio Ave are a small club by financial resources and very small by players' total market value according to a well-respected and famous German website. Their squad is valued at just 14.58 million euros. Sporting's players have a total market value of whopping 234.90 million. Whilst Rio Ave are a little stronger than the market value would reflect – I do expect them to have to struggle very hard to avoid relegation back to Liga Portugal2! Even so, I have to admit that they have been better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis and have updated their power rating accordingly. They currently occupy the 10th place with 18 points in the pocket and have a decent score difference of 16:18. Their number of expected points (xPTS), however, is just 14.02. I rate them as the 15th-best team in this league with a total of 18 teams. Many of their players have simply exceeded themselves this season - especially against the lowly and mediocre teams - but this over-performing cannot go on forever. The bookies seem to have got carried away by their strong start to the season and once again over-value them! Yes, they won the opening match in the League Cup in the island of Madeira against Maritimo 1-0 but did not really convince me as a whole. The hosts' J. Ramirez received a direct red card in the 23th minute which more or less destroyed Maritimo's match.. Before this they beat Arouca 1-0 away from home and did unarguably defend very well! Even so, their offense was quite limited and they will surely struggle to create chances today against a superior opponent who crushed Farense 6-0 in their most recent match. The score does flatter them but the hosts allowed Farense just one scoring attempt and no shots at all on goal!

It has unarguably been disappointing season for Sporting as a whole – for their very high standards I mean. In the Champions League they finished in third place in Group D – behind Tottenham and Frankfurt. They will now how to play in the Europa League early next year.. Last season they qualified from the group stage but suffered a 0-5 defeat on aggregate in the round of 16 and even managed to avoid defeat in Manchester City in the second leg.They - once again - lost some important players after last season but, even taking that into account, they have looked much weaker than I would have expected before the 2022-2023 season kicked off - no denying that. Last season they finished in 2nd place, after Porto, with 85 points to their account. Before crushing Farense Sporting won – 2-1 away from home against a lowly Famalicao in Liga Portugal but seemed to be far from their best level., Perhaps, I - along with many football analysts - even reacted a bit too heavily to this match where hosts, too, had their chances in this clash.. Sporting are in the only in the 4th place in the standings with 25 points and a score difference of 26:15. The leaders, Benfica, have taken 37 points already! I would still expect them to topple the much-much improved Braga though. The massive win over Farense must be a big boost to their confidence and have now had a lot of time to practice - despite a few players having been unavailable because of national team duty. I expect their talented and smart coach, Ruben Amorim,37, to field at least close to his best possible starting eleven today though. No, League Cup is most certainly not the min priority for Sporting this season but they still seem to take it pretty seriously now as the Liga Portugal is on a World Cup break.. The main rationale is still to go against the hosts who do not even have very good fans - their home advantage is below the average (Portuguese) level. Sporting have a clearly over 70% chance to win!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Ave VS sports CP

里约热内卢在北京时间周四凌晨,葡萄牙联赛杯第2轮比赛在孔戴市Estádio do里约热内卢Ave进行。这两支球队在纯粹的级别上有巨大的差异——尤其是在进攻球员的技术水平方面!两队在葡萄牙联赛中都有比赛,两队在级别上的差距当然要比这大得多!上赛季,Ave以72分和52:31的净胜球领先葡萄牙甲级联赛,本赛季升入了最高级别联赛。然而,第一梯队和第二梯队之间的差异是巨大的。根据一家著名的德国网站的数据,从财务资源来看,里约热内卢是一家小俱乐部,从球员的总市场价值来看,也非常小。他们的身价只有1458万欧元。体育体育的球员总市值高达2.490亿美元。虽然里约热内卢Ave比市场价值更强一些,但我确实认为他们必须非常努力地避免降级回到葡甲2!即便如此,我不得不承认他们比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好,并相应地更新了他们的实力评级。他们目前以18分的优势排在第10位,比分差距为16:18。但是,他们的期望分数(xPTS)只有14.02分。我认为他们在这个联盟的18支球队中排名第15。他们的许多球员本赛季已经超越了自己——尤其是对阵那些低能和平庸的球队——但这种超常表现不可能永远持续下去。博彩公司似乎被他们赛季开局的强势冲昏了头脑,再次高估了他们的身价!是的,他们在马德拉岛的联赛杯中以1-0战胜了马里蒂莫,但并没有真正说服我。东道主拉米雷斯在第23分钟吃到一张直接红牌,这或多或少地破坏了马里蒂莫的比赛。在此之前,他们在客场1-0击败了阿鲁卡,毫无疑问防守得非常好!尽管如此,他们的进攻相当有限,他们今天肯定会努力创造机会,面对一个在最近的比赛中以6-0击败法伦斯的强大对手。这个比分确实让他们高兴,但是东道主只让法伦斯有一次射门机会,而且根本没有射门!

毫无疑问,这个赛季对整个竞技队来说都是令人失望的——我的意思是他们的高标准。在欧冠联赛中,他们排在D组第三,落后于热刺和法兰克福。他们将在明年初参加欧联杯。上赛季,他们从小组赛出线,但在16强赛中总比分0-5惨败,甚至在次回合对阵曼城时成功避免了失利。在上赛季之后,他们再一次失去了一些重要的球员,但是,即使考虑到这一点,他们在2022-2023赛季开始之前看起来比我预期的要弱得多,这是不可否认的。上赛季他们以85分排在波尔图之后,排名第二。在碾压法伦斯之前,他们在西甲葡萄牙客场2-1战胜了实力较弱的法马利科,但似乎还远远没有达到他们的最佳水平。也许,我和许多足球分析人士对这场比赛的反应有点过于强烈,东道主在这场冲突中也有机会。在积分榜上,体育以25分排在第四位,比分差距为26:15。领头羊本菲卡已经拿到了37分!尽管如此,我还是希望他们能击败已经有很大进步的布拉加。对法兰斯的大胜无疑大大增强了他们的信心,现在他们有了大量的时间来训练——尽管有一些球员因为国家队任务而无法上场。我希望他们的天才和聪明的教练,鲁本阿莫里姆,37岁,今天至少会派出他最好的11人首发。不,联赛杯肯定不是体育本赛季的首要任务,但他们现在似乎还是很认真地对待它,因为西甲葡萄牙正处于世界杯间歇期。主要的理由仍然是对阵那些甚至没有非常好的球迷的东道主——他们的主场优势低于平均水平(葡萄牙)。竞技队有超过70%的机会获胜!


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