Levante VS Malaga

Levante welcome Malaga for this LaLiga2 round clash at Estadi Ciutat de València in Valencia Monday morning Beijing time. Levante were relegated from the first tier after last season and I do think they will have an easy job trying to be promoted back to LaLiga.. They have been worse than I estimated in my in-depth pre-season analysis. Especially their offense has lacked creativity, structure and speed in quite a few matches! They have netted the ball 19 times so far – even Morandes - currently in 17th place have scored the same number of goals. Their defense has been quite solid though. For a good team they often play surprisingly cautious football – even in front of their fans who sometimes have been frustrated by this.. The number of expected goals here is only 2.09 – the biggest bookies with the biggest betting limits have, however, set the number at close to 2.40. This suits the recommended +1.5 goals on Malaga well! My fans and I will win if the visitors avoid losing by more than one goal's difference. The probability is 73%. The chance of Levante winning, on the other hand, is 55%. Yes, Malaga have allowed wed 22 goals but have significantly improved their defense recently. The bookies have not fully recognized this, I believe. Indeed, Malaga have allowed just two goals in their latest three games. Their defenders now make very few silly mistakes and the defensive structure is also better than early season. The midfielders also actively participate in defending now. Levante have won just one of their latest 13 games by more than a gap of one goal! Moreover, Malaga have covered the +1.5 goals' handicap in all of their most recent matches.

Levante currently occupy the 6th place in the standings with 28 points to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) would have deserved just 25 points. They are a big team in terms of financial resources and players' total market value according to a respected and well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com - by LaLiga2 standards. Their squad's market value is about 48 million euros. This is too high though - 36-38 million would be a more realistic number. At least 4 four players, two of these strikers, are over-rated.They also played some good matches last season and this might in part explain the over-valuation on the betting market here.. Malaga are not a small club either and played in LaLiga in the past. Their players' total market value is estimated at around 20 million which is too low in my view. Even so, the hosts do have an edge in all areas of the game. Also in defense despite Malaga's enchanced level. The visitors have had a disappointing season so far and are in the 21th place with 14 points. However, their xPTS is 17.34 points. Furthermore, their number of expected goals is 16.53 – the actual number of goals scored is just 13. They have a good but under-rated coach and definitely have the chance to make it to top-15 as the season progresses! In their most recent match they beat Ponforredina 1-0 at home after a very solid defensive performance. Their offense was not too convincing though. I expect them to be very cautious here at Estadi Ciutat de València and they would probably be happy with a draw. Levante very disappointing in their most recent match as clear favorites, priced around 1.80 to win against a pretty lowly team Lugo away from home. It was a 1-1 draw and Levante recorded just two shots on goal