More PROFIT from Qatar! 世界杯日本VS西班牙
2022-12-02

Tapio

外籍分析师

世界杯

12/02 03:00

已完赛

解读理由:

Japan VS Spain

Japan challenge Spain in this Group E battle at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha early Friday Beijing time. The stakes are high as, quite surprisingly, all teams in this group have a chance to qualify for the play offs. Spain top the group with 4 points and a terrific score difference of 8:1. They were stunningly good in the opening match against Costa Rica winning 7-0. They created 3.89 in expected goals (xG) – Costa Rica's number was 0.00 – a very rare situation in any football match, not to mention in a World Cup. Japan surprisingly beat Germany in the opening round as massive underdogs according to the bookies 2-1. They even came back from 0-1 but the win was not a deserved one in terms of real events on the pitch or xG. Germany's number was 3.85 – Japan's 1.89. I think this win affect the odds here too much. The difference in class is massive in Spain's favor in all areas of the game. I rate have them in third place after Brazil and France in my power rating that reflects the teams pure class. Their FIFA ranking is only 7th though.. Japan occupy the 24th place which is a bit too high – 28-30th would be more realistic.

Japan very probably need to win this match as they have four points in the bank and a score difference of 2:2. This forces them to take risks, in the second half at the latest. Whilst Spain are not a team that usually score on counter attacks the young, fast and skilled Spaniards will surely take advantage of Japan's too aggressive attacking and consequent mistakes..If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. Germany have just one point but are massive, around, 88% favorites against Costa Rica and even a win by 3-5 goals' margin is very much possible.. Costa Rica managed to beat Japan despite creating only some 0.15 in xG.. However, they also exposed Japan's weaknesses in this match. Yes, they had some chances but overall I was not impressed by their offense. It lacked structure, creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments.. They have many players from big Europan leagues, especially from the German Bundesliga, but no real world-class talents.. There has been some speculation in the media on Spain possibly wanting to lose the finish second in the group to avoid Brazil in the quarter-finals and rather facing Switzerland, Uruguay or Ghana. Anything is of course possible in sports but I do not give this factor too much emphasis. Who knows, maybe Costa Rica upset Germany or perhaps the Germans – with score difference of 2:3 win by a big margin.. In both scenarios Spain would not qualify. I do not think they will risk anything! They were, however, not quite at their best against Germany, who also improved a lot from the Japan game. I expect Olmo, Asensio, Torres, Pedri and Gavi to destroy Japan's pretty shaky defense! Spain have a 76-77% chance to win!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

日本VS西班牙

北京时间周五凌晨,在多哈的哈利法国际体育场,日本队将在E组挑战西班牙队。令人惊讶的是,这个小组的所有球队都有机会进入附加赛,所以赌注很高。西班牙以4分小组第一,比分相差8:1。在首战7-0战胜哥斯达黎加的比赛中,他们表现惊人。他们创造了3.89个预期进球数(xG)——哥斯达黎加的预期进球数是0.00——这在任何足球比赛中都是非常罕见的情况,更不用说在世界杯上了。日本队在首轮比赛中出人意料地以2比1的比分击败了德国队。他们甚至从0-1追了回来,但从球场上的真实事件或xG来看,这场胜利并不值得。德国是3.85,日本是1.89。我觉得这次获胜对赔率影响太大了。在比赛的各个领域,西班牙都受到了阶层差异的巨大青睐。在我的实力评估中,我认为他们排在巴西和法国之后,排名第三,这反映了这支球队纯粹的水平。但他们在国际足联的排名只有第7 ..日本排在第24位,有点高了,28-30位更现实。

日本队很可能需要赢得这场比赛,因为他们在银行有4分,比分相差2:2。这迫使他们冒险,最晚也要在下半年。虽然西班牙队不是一支经常在反击中得分的球队,但年轻、速度快、技术熟练的西班牙人肯定会利用日本队过于激进的进攻和由此导致的失误。如果两队在赛季结束时积分持平,比分差距将成为决胜局。德国队虽然只得一分,但在对阵哥斯达黎加的比赛中,他们的胜率高达88%,甚至有可能以3-5球的优势取胜。哥斯达黎加成功击败了日本,尽管xG只创造了0.15。然而,他们也暴露了日本队在这场比赛中的弱点。是的,他们有一些机会,但是总的来说我对他们的进攻没有印象。它缺乏结构、创造力和关键时刻的传球准确性。他们有许多来自欧洲大联赛的球员,特别是来自德甲的,但没有真正世界级的天才。有媒体猜测,西班牙可能希望失去小组第二的位置,从而在1 / 4决赛中避开巴西,而是面对瑞士、乌拉圭或加纳。当然,在体育运动中任何事情都是可能的,但我并没有太强调这个因素。谁知道呢,也许是哥斯达黎加击败了德国,或者是德国——比分2:3大胜。在这两种情况下,西班牙都无法晋级。我认为他们不会冒任何风险!然而,他们在与德国的比赛中并没有发挥出最佳状态,德国在与日本的比赛中也有了很大的进步。我希望奥尔莫,阿森西奥,托雷斯,佩德里和加维能摧毁日本相当不稳定的防守!西班牙有76-77%的机会赢球!


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