Ecuador VS Senegal

Ecuador and Senegal go head to head in this Group A clash at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha late Tuesday evening Beijing time. The stakes are sky-high as both teams have a good chance to qualify for the Play Offs. Technically both Ecuador and Senegal could also win the group but this is very unlikely as Netherlands are big favorites against the Qataris. The Dutch top the group with four points and a goal difference of 3:1. Interestingly, Ecuador have exactly the same record! If the Netherlands do not lose against the host nation Senegal have to win this match to qualify. I expect them to be active and aggressive here. They are very athletic, fast and - most importantly - taller and physically stronger than the Ecuadorians. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. The largest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers see Ecuador as solid favorites and offer odds around 2.35-2.40 for them to be victorious – at least at the time of writing this analysis. I would, however, not be surprised to see Senegal's odds to drop by the time of kickoff. I must disagree with the betting market here. Indeed, I see the South Americans only as extremely marginal favorites!

Typically for this tournament - and other high-stakes international matches the goal expectancy is quite low. The betting market set the number as around 2.15 – my estimation is 2.03. The probability of a draw is 32% and would be enough to bring my fans and me the 6th winner in a row betting on the World Cup! I have also written an in-depth analysis in the early Wednesday morning Beijing time game Iran vs USA – another very interesting match to watch and to bet on! If the score is level - not to mention if they are trailing - late into the second half and something unexpected is not happening in the Netherlands vs Qatar game Senegal will, of course, have to take risk to score.. This might lead to Ecuador getting some opportunities for dangerous counter-attacks.. This is a risk we have to accept here. However, this factor is often given to much emphasis on the betting market. The team defending the lead rarely have the energy - or true willingness to attack and risk possibly losing the ball – and allowing a goal as result! I also want to mention that Ecuador are a somewhat limited team offensively and heavily rely on Enner Valencia who scored the 1-1 goal against the Netherlands. He however, got a nasty ankle injure later on and it is not sure if he is able to play at the time of writing this preview.. Even if he does enter the pitch he might not a play for the whole 90 minutes or be even close to 100% pitch.. This would be a massive loss for the Ecuadorians - bigger than the betting market seems to estimate..

Ecuador did seem to be quite happy with the 2-0 lead – this was also the final score - in the opening match against Qatar but the Qataris were so weak that an offensively strong team would have scored four or even five goals! Ecuador did play a good match against Netherlands, not denying to deny that at all. They even recorded 1.44 in expected goals (xG) whereas the Dutch only managed 0.14! However, we must not react too heavily to this match. The Netherlands were abysmal in this match – they played clearly below their normal level! Let's not forget about for example how good Canada looked – especially in the first half against Belgium and did record much more in xG in this match as clear underdogs but got completely crushed by Croatia in the next game (1-4)! Croatia recorded some 3.50 in xG and Canada did not look good at all after the first approximately 15 minutes of play.. The FIFA ranking is a pretty good indicator of the teams' pure class. Senegal are in the 18th place place with 1584.38 ranking points. Ecuador, on the other hand, occupy the 44th place with 1464.44 points to their account. Without Bayern Munich's super star Sadio Mane Senegal are surely not among the best 25th countries on the planet but should still be respected more by the bookies here! Ecuador are, especially with Valencia, surely a little better than the 44th but the ranking does reflect the fact the Ecuador being solid favorites cannot be correct! Furthermore, think Mane's absence has been given too much emphasis by the bookies here and with him in the squad Senegal would probably be the favorites to win - even according to the bookies! The Africans have many high-quality players who play for big European clubs and are tactically better than most African teams. Senegal were okay Netherlands in the first match and Gakpo managed to score no earlier than in the 84th minute. I want to highlight that Netherlands were playing at much better level in this match than against Ecuador.. The expected goals numbers were Netherlands 1.39 – Senegal 0.79. They easily beat Qatar 3-1 in the previous round despite the Qataris having improved a lot, especially offensively, from the first match. Indeed, three goals without Mane – promising indeed and surely a massive boost for their confidence going into this massive game!

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厄瓜多尔VS塞内加尔

北京时间周二晚间，在多哈哈利法国际体育场举行的A组比赛中，厄瓜多尔和塞内加尔展开了正面交锋。由于两支球队都有很好的机会进入附加赛，所以赌注极高。从技术上讲，厄瓜多尔和塞内加尔都有可能获得小组第一，但这是非常不可能的，因为荷兰是对阵卡塔尔的大热门。荷兰队积4分，净胜球3:1，排名小组第一。有趣的是，厄瓜多尔也有同样的记录!如果荷兰队不输给东道主塞内加尔队，那么塞内加尔队必须赢得这场比赛才能出线。我希望他们在这里积极进取。他们运动能力强，速度快，最重要的是，他们比厄瓜多尔人更高，身体更强壮。如果两支球队在赛季结束时积分相等，那么比分差将成为决胜局。最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司认为厄瓜多尔是夺冠的大热门，并给出了2.35-2.40左右的赔率——至少在写这篇分析时是这样。然而，如果看到塞内加尔在开球时赔率下降，我不会感到惊讶。我不同意博彩市场的说法。事实上，我认为南美人只是非常受欢迎的人!

通常来说，对于这项赛事和其他高风险的国际比赛，进球预期是相当低的。博彩市场把这个数字定在2.15左右，我估计是2.03。平局的概率是32%，这足以让我和我的球迷成为世界杯连续第六个赢家!我还写了一篇深入分析的文章，是关于北京时间周三凌晨伊朗对美国的比赛——另一场非常有趣的比赛，值得观看和下注!如果比分持平——更不用说他们落后了——下半场后半段，在荷兰vs卡塔尔的比赛中没有发生意想不到的事情，塞内加尔当然要冒险得分。这可能会让厄瓜多尔获得一些危险的反击机会。这是我们必须要承担的风险。然而，这一因素往往被过多地强调在博彩市场。防守领先的球队很少有精力——或者真正愿意冒着可能丢球的风险进攻——并最终失球!我还想提一下，厄瓜多尔是一支进攻能力有限的球队，严重依赖于在对阵荷兰的比赛中打进1-1球的瓦伦西亚。然而，后来他的脚踝严重受伤，在写这篇预告的时候还不确定他是否能参加比赛。即使他上场了，他也可能打不满90分钟，甚至接近100%的状态。这对厄瓜多尔人来说将是一个巨大的损失——比博彩市场的估计还要大。

厄瓜多尔在首战对阵卡塔尔的比赛中取得2-0的领先，这也是最终比分，厄瓜多尔对此似乎很满意，但卡塔尔人太弱了，一支进攻强大的球队可能会进4甚至5球!厄瓜多尔在对阵荷兰的比赛中确实踢得很好，一点也不否认。他们甚至有1.44个预期进球数(xG)，而荷兰只有0.14个!然而，我们不能对这场比赛反应过度。荷兰队在这场比赛中糟透了，他们的表现明显低于正常水平!让我们不要忘记加拿大看起来有多好，特别是在对阵比利时的上半场，在xG比赛中，他们在明显处于劣势的情况下取得了更多的成绩，但在下一场比赛中被克罗地亚彻底碾压(1-4)!克罗地亚在xG的得分是3.50，而加拿大在开始大约15分钟的比赛后看起来一点都不好。国际足联的排名是衡量球队水平的一个很好的指标。塞内加尔以1584.38分排名第18。另一方面，厄瓜多尔以1464.44分排名第44位。没有了拜仁慕尼黑的超级球星萨迪奥·马内，塞内加尔肯定不是这个星球上最好的25个国家之一，但仍然应该得到这里的博彩公司更多的尊重!厄瓜多尔，特别是瓦伦西亚，肯定比第44名好一点，但排名确实反映了厄瓜多尔是绝对的热门，这是不正确的!此外，我想马内的缺席已经被这里的博彩公司过于强调了，有他在阵容中，塞内加尔可能是最受欢迎的冠军——甚至根据博彩公司的说法!非洲人有许多效力于欧洲豪门的高质量球员，他们的战术比大多数非洲球队都要好。塞内加尔在第一场比赛中表现不错，加克波在第84分钟之前就成功进球。我想强调的是，荷兰队在这场比赛中的水平比对阵厄瓜多尔的水平要高得多。预期进球数是荷兰1.39，塞内加尔0.79。在上一轮比赛中，他们3-1轻松击败了卡塔尔，尽管卡塔尔人比第一场比赛进步了很多，尤其是在进攻端。的确，在没有马内的情况下打进了三球，这无疑会极大地增强他们在这场重要比赛中的信心!