Iran vs USA

Iran and USA lock horns in this Group B battle at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The stakes are massive as both teams have a genuine chance to qualify for the Play Offs. It would be the first time in Iran's history! The two countries also do not have the best possible relationship outside football which sure adds a little extra emotion this match.. It is the third and final round of group stage. The situation going into the match is very clear: USA need to win to qualify and it possible that the win would even earn them the first place in this group. This is however very unlikely as England top the group with four points and are are of course the solid favorites against Wales. England have score difference of 6:2 If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. For Iran a draw would be enough to qualify and they have better chance than USA, but still quite slim to win the group. USA will most probably be the more active team here and are expected to have at least 55% ball possession. Iran, on the other hand, will likely defend with 9-10 ten men - for as long as the score is level or Iran are in the lead. There is no doubt about the fact that USA are the favorites here. They have on edge in all areas of the game. The biggest difference is in the midfield where they have more skill and creativity. However, my point is that USA are more narrow favorites than the betting market, most football journalists or football fans believe! I estimate them having a 42% chance to win. This means my fans and me have 58% chance to win for the sixth time in a row (at the time of writing this analysis) with the recommended +1 goals with 1x2 handicap option as a draw would be enough. The biggest bookies, with the largest betting limits see the goal expectancy here to be about 2.15 but I would set the number at only 2.01 as Iran, as mentioned above, will not probably not attack too much here. USA, on the other hand, lack world-class goal-scoring capability and Iran's defense is normally tough to break for any team!

Furthermore, we must not forget that in the FIFA ranking the difference between the teams is also quite slim. USA are in the 16th place with 1627.48 points to their account. I think the 16th is a bit too high and for example Serbia in 21th place are definitely better than USA in my opinion! Iran occupy the 20th place with 1564.61 points. We should not only estimate the probabilities here only by taking a look at the matches in this tournament,Indeed, let's remember that they won the Asian World Cup qualification Group A with 25 points in 10 matches and allowed just four goals! A quite strong team, South Korea, finished second. USA, on the other hand, finished third in the North & Central America qualification after Canada and Mexico. They grabbed the same number of points – 25 – as Costa Rica. We have all seen how limited Costa Rica have been in this tournament losing 0-7 to Spain and taking a massively undeserved win over Japan – after creating only some 0.13 in expected goals in this match and nothing at all against Spain! Moreover, USA have not won any of their most recent five games!

USA did play a pretty good match against England but I want to highlight that England played below their normal level in this match.,Even so, England were the slightly better team with 55% ball possession and more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The expected goals (xG) number was 0.94 for England and 0.82 for USA. Against Wales USA were very strong in the first half but massively faded away in the second half as they fatigue stepped in and Wales stopped being ultra passive . USA only recorded one shot on goal in this match! Moreover, Wales recorded 1.87 in expected goals – USA only 0.96. Iran were heavily beaten by England who were than expected and I believe this result affects the odds here too much.. The very surprising final score 6-2 is misleading though. England scored a few quite quick goals and got into a somewhat rare " offensive flow state" for where they seemed to succeed in everything they tried to do.. At 0-2 Iran had to take start taking bigger (offensive) risks and that did cost them! England recorded " only" 2.46 in expected goals – Iran's number was not bad either – 1.52. Iran can definitely improve from that match - and even from the match against Wales where they fully deserved the 2-0 win - and would have had a good chance to take all three points even without Wales goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey's red card late into the second half. My fans and I easily won the bet on Iran in this match where they recorded 1.92 in xG – Wales's number was just 0.89. Player's to watch include especially dangerous Mehdi Taremi whose brace against England moved the Iran striker onto 15 goals for club, (Portuguese FC Porto), and country this season, with nine of his 11 goal-scoring appearances being the first - or last of the game.. USA captain Tyler Adams has earned rave reviews for his performances at the World Cup. His country have lost just once when he has worn the armband. 0-0 is of course not most probable final score of course but we want to make a long-term profit and odds are too high and worth a try here!

GOOD LUCK!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

伊朗vs美国

北京时间周三凌晨，伊朗和美国在多哈的阿尔图马体育场进行了B组的较量。两支球队都有真正的机会进入附加赛，所以赌注是巨大的。这将是伊朗历史上的第一次!两国在足球之外的关系也不是最好的，这肯定给这场比赛增添了一点额外的情感。这是小组赛的第三轮也是最后一轮。比赛的情况非常清楚:美国队需要赢下比赛才能出线，这场比赛甚至有可能为他们赢得小组第一的位置。然而，这是非常不可能的，因为英格兰以4分的成绩排在小组第一，当然他们是对阵威尔士的大热门。英格兰队的比分差距为6:2，如果两队在赛季结束时积分相等，则比分差距将成为决胜局。对于伊朗来说，一场平局就足以出线，他们的机会比美国大，但小组出线的机会仍然很小。美国队很可能是这里更活跃的球队，预计至少有55%的控球率。另一方面，伊朗可能会以9-10十人防守——只要比分持平或伊朗领先。毫无疑问，美国队是夺冠热门。他们在比赛的各个方面都处于领先地位。最大的区别是在中场，他们有更多的技术和创造力。然而，我的观点是，大多数足球记者或球迷相信，美国比博彩市场更受欢迎!我估计他们有42%的机会赢。这意味着我的球迷和我有58%的机会连续六次获胜(在写这篇分析的时候)，如果推荐+1球和1x2障碍选项，平局就足够了。最大的博彩公司，最大的投注限额，认为这里的目标预期是2.15，但我将设置只有2.01的数字，因为伊朗，如上所述，可能不会进攻太多。另一方面，美国缺乏世界级的进球能力，而伊朗的防守通常是任何球队都难以突破的!

此外，我们不能忘记，在国际足联排名中，球队之间的差距也相当小。美国以1627.48分排名第16。我认为第16名有点太高了，例如塞尔维亚在第21名，在我看来肯定比美国强!伊朗以1564.61分排名第20。我们不能只看本届比赛的情况来估计概率。的确，让我们记住，他们在亚洲区世界杯预选赛a组的10场比赛中以25分的成绩夺冠，只丢了4球!韩国队实力相当强大，获得第二名。另一方面，美国在北部和北部名列第三;在加拿大和墨西哥之后的中美洲资格。他们获得了与哥斯达黎加相同的25分。我们都看到了哥斯达黎加在本届比赛中是多么的有限，0:7输给了西班牙，却大胜日本队——在这场比赛中，哥斯达黎加只创造了0.13个预期进球，而在与西班牙的比赛中，哥斯达黎加则完全没有进球!而且，美国队最近的五场比赛一场都没赢!

美国队在对阵英格兰的比赛中确实踢得很好，但我想强调的是，英格兰在这场比赛中的表现低于正常水平。尽管如此，英格兰队还是略胜一筹，拥有55%的控球率，射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。预期进球数(xG)英格兰为0.94，美国为0.82。对阵威尔士，美国队在上半场非常强大，但在下半场由于他们的疲劳，威尔士停止了极端被动。美国队在这场比赛中只有一次射正!此外，威尔士的预期进球数为1.87，而美国队只有0.96。伊朗队被英格兰队打得很惨，我认为这个结果对胜率影响太大了。令人惊讶的最终比分是6-2，这是误导。英格兰很快就进了几个球，并进入了一种罕见的“进攻流状态”，因为他们似乎每做一件事都能成功。在0-2的情况下，伊朗不得不开始冒更大的(进攻)风险，这让他们付出了代价!英格兰的预期进球数“只有”2.46个，伊朗的预期进球数也不错——1.52个。伊朗绝对可以在那场比赛中有所进步，甚至可以在对阵威尔士的比赛中有所进步，在那场比赛中，他们完全应该以2-0的比分取胜。即使在下半场后半段没有威尔士门将韦恩·亨尼西的红牌的情况下，伊朗也有很好的机会拿到全部三分。我和我的球迷在这场比赛中轻松赢了伊朗的赌注，他们的xG值为1.92，而威尔士的xG值只有0.89。值得关注的球员包括特别危险的Mehdi Taremi，他在对阵英格兰的比赛中打进两球，使这位伊朗前锋本赛季为俱乐部(葡萄牙波尔图)和国家队打进15球，其中他的11次进球中有9次是在比赛中首次或最后一次进球。美国队队长泰勒·亚当斯(Tyler Adams)在世界杯上的表现赢得了热烈的评价。当他戴上袖标时，他的国家只输过一次球。0-0当然不是最有可能的最终比分，但我们想要获得长期利润，胜算太高，值得一试!

< / p > < p >祝你好运!