On Tuesday, the final matchday in the World Cup group stage is going to start. In group B, it should be a very interesting game between Wales and England. As of right now, England is the best team in the group with four points while Wales is in the last place with one point. At the same time, England's place in the next round isn't guaranteed and Wales can qualify for the next round. In this game, I'm predicting that England will win.

If two teams will have identical point total, everyone will look at the goal difference. In the better position is England which has scored six times and conceded only two. If Wales wants to get an automatic spot in the knockout stage, they need to beat England with at least four goal difference. How likely it is? Very unlikely. If Wales beat England with less than a four-goal difference, England will qualify but the situation could be tricky if Iran and USA game ends with a draw meaning that three teams would be with four points.

I don't think that there will need any calculation because England will win. Wale's main goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey received a red card last game so he will miss this game. Even when all 11 men were on the pitch, the team didn't look very aggressive, as their xG rating was only 0.89. Wales is in a drought because they haven't won in seven games in a row. There appears little chance of that run ending against England either given Wales has lost six straight head-to-head matchups by an aggregate 1:11 scoreline!

England has an excellent record against Wales and has won 68 out of the 103 matches played between the two teams, as opposed to Wales' 14 victories. England has lost their final group game at a FIFA World Cup in only two of the last 14 editions. English fans aren't very happy with the team's performance in the last game and every player knows it. The motivation should be sky-high as they can't afford to lose. The draw against USA could work as a kick in the butt, boosting the English player's motivation.

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周二，世界杯小组赛的最后一场比赛日即将开始。在B组，威尔士和英格兰之间的比赛应该会非常有趣。截至目前，英格兰队积4分，是小组中最好的球队，威尔士队积1分，排名最后。与此同时，英格兰能否晋级下一轮并不确定，威尔士可以晋级下一轮。在这场比赛中，我预测英格兰会赢。

如果两队积分相同，大家就会看净胜球。处于较好位置的是英格兰，他们进了6球，只丢了2球。如果威尔士想自动获得淘汰赛资格，他们需要以至少4个净胜球的优势击败英格兰。这种可能性有多大?不太可能。如果威尔士以少于4球的差距击败英格兰，英格兰将出线，但如果伊朗和美国的比赛以平局结束，情况可能会很棘手，这意味着有三支球队将获得4分。

我不认为需要任何算计，因为英格兰会赢。威尔士的主力门将亨尼西在上一场比赛中吃到了红牌，因此他将缺席本场比赛。即使11人都在场上，球队看起来也不是很有侵略性，因为他们的xG评分只有0.89。威尔士正处于干旱状态，因为他们已经连续七场比赛没有赢球了。在对阵英格兰的比赛中，威尔士以总比分1:11连续输掉了六场比赛。

英格兰队在对阵威尔士队的103场比赛中取得了68胜，而威尔士队则取得了14胜。在过去的14届世界杯中，英格兰队只有2次在小组赛中输掉了最后一场比赛。英格兰球迷对球队在上一场比赛中的表现不太满意，每个球员都知道这一点。他们的动力应该很高，因为他们输不起。与美国队的平局可以作为一种激励，提高英国球员的积极性。