Argentina vs Mexico

Mexico challenge Argentina in this Group C clash at Lusail Iconic Stadium in Lusail early Sunday morning Beijing time. The stakes are of course high! Argentina are in a tricky situation as a result of the shocking 1-2 loss to Saudi-Arabia in the opening round. The Saudis were definitely better than I, the betting market, fans or football analysts would have expected! They, in fact, played quite well today as well – despite losing to Poland 0-2. One of the key things in long-term profitable football betting is not to react to much to one or two matches. It is true that Argentina, not even the ”GOAT” and the the best player in the world for years in the 2010's Leo Messi were at their best in this match. Opening matches are, however, never easy for the big favorite and the Saudi's put massive pressure on Argentina's defense which was a surprise. It was a very risky strategy and it is almost a miracle Argentina scored just once as a result of the Saudi's tactic Argentina got many very dangerous attacks. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.79 for Argentina and just 0.17 for the Arabs! Argentina do not necassary have to win this as Poland top the group with four points and the two teams lock horns in the last round. However, if they do not win things will get very challenging for them..

I expect Argentina to improve but main rationale behind the bet is that Mexico are not a very strong team. They are clearly worse than 2014 and 2018. They did not impress me against Poland and the Poles even recorded more in expected goals - 0.93-1-22! Mexico were not very convincing in the qualification and finished in second place – behind Canada - in the group with the likes of Honduras and Jamaica – weak teams. Moreover, they only grabbed four more points than Panama and three more points than Costa Rica. Who were hopelessly bad against Spain and did not create anything in expected goals! Quite weirdly, the Mexic9 scored only 17 goals in 14 matches and I believe they will struggle trying to score in this match and especially against Argentina who are normally very solid defensively. Indeed, they won five games in a row before the Saudi Arabia game without conceding a goal and the most recent loss until this game was on the 3rd of July in 2019 against clear favorites to win this tournament! In addition to Messi Mexico's ultra-skilled Raul Jimenez (Wolverhampton Wanderers) is a player to follow closely here. He made his first appearance for almost three months in the final friendly before this tournament and featured from the bench on Tuesday. I would also expect Lautaro Martinez to improve and let's hope he nets the ball. Argentina are over 75% favorites to win!