Wales VS Iran

Wales and Iran lock horns in this League B round 2 opening game at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al Rayyan Friday evening Beijing time. The stakes are high here as a win but bring both teams, especially Wales, close to qualification for the Play Offs. However, a draw would not be a catastrophe for either team and would keep the qualification dreams alive. Wales's FIFA ranking is 19th – Iran have almost the same number of ranking points in to their account and are in 20h place. The betting market sees Wales as solid favorites here and offers odds around 2.15-2.20 for them to win. I cannot agree with this and see Wales only as very marginal faves. With the recommended +1 handicap, a draw would be enough for us to win, we have a 64% chance to win. The number of expected goals is, typically for many matches in this tournament, very low. Even yet another 0-0 would not surprise me at all.

Wales faced USA in the first round and played slightly worse as a whole than I would have expected. In the first half USA completely dominated the events on the pitch and Wales were extremely passive and could create very little offensively. Something, however happened during the break and USA, on the other hand, became too passive in the second half and Wales started the chase creating a decent number of scoring chances. At the end one could say the 1-1 draw was a justified result. A penalty goal from Wales legend and former Real Madrid and Tottenham player, G. Bale, was needed for them the level the score late into the match. Both teams recorded about the same number of expected goals - around 1.10. Wales rely to heavily on Bale, Ramsay and a few other players in my opinion. They do have a great team spirit but controlling the ball as the favorites and trying to break Iran's defense is not something that suits their style of play too well

Iran, on the other hand, were heavily beaten by the clear favorites to win the group – England who were better than expected. The surprising final score 6-2 is misleading though. England scored a few pretty quick goals and got into a rare " flow state". At 0-2 Iran had to take start taking risks and that did cost them! England recorded " only" 2.46 in expected goals – Iran's number was quite decent too – 1.52. Iran can definitely improve from that match and usually have a solid defense. Unfortunately their good goalkeeper Beiranvand who plays for Persepolis was injured against England. Players to watch include especially Bale whose goal against the USA was his fourth in a major tournament for Wales and means he has scored four times in his last nine games for his home country. Dangerous Mehdi Taremi’s brace against England moved the Iran striker onto 15 goals for club, (Porto), and country this season, with nine of his 11 goal-scoring appearances being the first - or last of the game. Let's not forget that Wales have not won any of their most recent six matches! The most recent win came in June in UEFA Nations League when they beat Ukraine at home but was an undeserved one as Ukraine had around 65% ball possession and also recorded much more shots on goal, goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Offensively Wales are more limited than many football fans - or the betting market believe., I would say they are the worst European team in this area of the game!

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威尔士VS伊朗

北京时间周五晚上，在阿勒扬的艾哈迈德·本·阿里体育场，威尔士和伊朗在乙级联赛第二轮的揭幕战中针锋相对。在这里，一场胜利的赌注很高，但会让两支球队，尤其是威尔士，接近进入附加赛的资格。然而，平局对任何一支球队来说都不会是一场灾难，而且会让出线梦继续下去。威尔士在国际足联的排名是第19位，伊朗在他们的账户中几乎有相同的排名积分，排在第20位。博彩市场认为威尔士是最受欢迎的球队，他们获胜的赔率在2.15-2.20左右。我不同意这种观点，认为威尔士只是非常边缘的热门。在推荐的+1障碍下，平局足以让我们获胜，我们有64%的机会获胜。预期进球数，通常在许多比赛中，是非常低的。即使再来一场0-0我也不会感到惊讶。

威尔士在第一轮对阵美国队，整体表现比我预期的要差一些。上半场美国队完全控制了场上的局面，威尔士则非常被动，几乎没有创造出什么进攻机会。然而，在中场休息期间发生了一些事情，另一方面，美国队在下半场变得过于被动，威尔士开始追逐创造了相当多的得分机会。最后，人们可以说1-1的平局是一个合理的结果。威尔士传奇人物、前皇家马德里和热刺球员g·贝尔的一粒点球帮助他们在比赛接近结束时扳平了比分。两支球队的预期进球数大致相同，都在1.10个左右。在我看来，威尔士非常依赖贝尔、拉姆齐和其他一些球员。他们确实有伟大的团队精神，但控球和试图打破伊朗的防守不是很适合他们的打法

另一方面，伊朗队被小组第一的热门球队英格兰队狠狠击败，而英格兰队的表现比预期的要好。令人惊讶的最终比分是6-2，这是误导。英格兰很快就进了几个球，进入了一种罕见的“流动状态”。在0-2的时候，伊朗不得不开始冒险，这让他们付出了代价!英格兰的预期进球数“只有”2.46个，伊朗的预期进球数也相当不错——1.52个。伊朗队肯定能从那场比赛中进步，他们的防守通常很稳固。不幸的是，波斯波利斯的守门员Beiranvand在对阵英格兰的比赛中受伤了。值得关注的球员包括贝尔，他在对阵美国队的比赛中打进了他代表威尔士参加的第四个重要赛事，这意味着他在过去的9场比赛中为祖国打进了4球。危险的Mehdi Taremi在对阵英格兰的比赛中梅开二度，这使得伊朗前锋本赛季为俱乐部(波尔图)和国家队打进15球，其中他的11次进球中有9次是在本场比赛的第一场或最后一场。别忘了威尔士最近的六场比赛一场都没赢!最近的一场胜利是在6月的欧足联国家联赛中，他们在主场击败了乌克兰，但这是一场不值得的胜利，因为乌克兰的控球率约为65%，而且射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。威尔士的进攻能力比许多球迷或者博彩市场认为的要有限。我想说他们是这个领域最糟糕的欧洲球队!