Plymouth VS Charlton

Plymouth welcome visitors from London for this EFL Cup 1/16-finals clash at Home Park early Wednesday morning Beijing time. A pretty balanced and probably quite entertaining match is on the cards here. Both teams play in League One and I think the league table is the main reason behind the fact that the host are clearly over-rated – and Charlton under-rated! The odds on the visitors have been coming down from the starting odds though as smart money is – totally understandably piling on Charlton! Plymouth currently top the standings in League One but I do not rate then among the best teams in this league in my power ratings that illustrate the teams' pure class. They have grabbed 43 points so far but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved only 37 points. Charlton, on the other hand would have deserved six more points in terms of xPTS than the actual 24 and have a lot of potential to improve both in terms of defense and offense. I expect them to soon start to drop down in the standings as many players have played above their normal level so far this season..

Plymouth have scored 39 goals and do have the firepower to net the ball here as well but their defense is not super-solid. They have allowed 22 goals but in terms of expected goals the number should be 27. Both teams are in fine form results-wise but Charlton have looked better on the pitch recently. The hosts have taken a draw in their latest two matches but in reality the opponent was the stronger team on the pitch in both games creating more in expected goals. Charlton are the favorites here but a draw would be enough for my fans and me to win with the recommended handicap option on Charlton. The chance of winning is 73%. The betting market estimates that Poland are the favorites but I cannot agree with this. I have watched all 10 latest matches from both teams and follow League One and EFL Cup very closely. Charlton beat the hosts 5-1 in August and also have the better coach.

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普利茅斯VS查尔顿

北京时间周三凌晨，普利茅斯欢迎来自伦敦的游客在主场观看这场1/16决赛的比赛。这是一场相当平衡且可能相当有趣的比赛。两支球队都效力于英甲，我认为联赛积分榜是主队被高估的主要原因，而查尔顿则被低估了!客队夺冠的赔率已经从一开始就下降了，就像精明的投资者一样——完全可以理解的是，他们都押在查尔顿身上!普利茅斯目前在英甲联赛中排名第一，但在我的实力评分中，我并不认为他们是联赛中最好的球队。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了43分，但从预期积分(xPTS)来看，他们应该只得到37分。另一方面，查尔顿在xPTS方面应该比实际的24分多6分，而且在防守和进攻方面都有很大的提升潜力。我预计他们的排名很快就会下降，因为很多球员本赛季到目前为止的表现都超过了他们的正常水平。

普利茅斯已经进了39个球，他们也有足够的火力在这里破门，但是他们的防守不是超级稳固。他们已经丢了22个球，但从预期进球来看，这个数字应该是27个。两支球队都取得了不错的成绩，但查尔顿最近在球场上表现得更好。在最近的两场比赛中，东道主取得了一场平局，但实际上对手在两场比赛中都是更强大的球队，创造了更多的预期进球。查尔顿在这里是最受欢迎的，但平局将足够我的球迷和我赢得与查尔顿推荐的障碍选项。中奖几率为73%。博彩市场估计波兰是夺冠热门，但我不同意这一点。我已经观看了这两支球队最近的10场比赛，并且非常关注英甲和英足总杯。查尔顿在8月5-1击败了东道主，他们也有更好的教练。