Estrela VS Benfica

Estrela welcome Benfica at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria for this League Cup round 1 clash at Estádio João Cardoso early Monday morning Beijing time. There is, of course, no doubt about the the fact that Benfica are very clear favorites here and have a clear edge in all areas of the game. With Porto and Sporting Lisbon they are one of the biggest clubs in Portugal and even played well in the Champions League this autumn. On the betting market their odds are around 1.25 to win this match but I would not say their win is not quite as probable as the current odds indicate. Odds on them have been going up from the starting odds though as smart money seems to piling up on the hosts.. I would say Benfica have about 70% chance to win. We must not forget that for them them League Cup is not a main the main priority – not even close. Even so, there are, of course, no bad players in their squad.. Indeed, I do expect Benfica's excellent coach, German Roger Schmidt to rotate his squad here – perhaps even heavily.. He will surely want to offer the many promising youngsters and the players who have not played that much lately a chance to prove their skills. Furthermore, Benfica will have to make do without of Antonio Silva, former Inter Milan forward Mario as well as Ramos, who are all representing Portugal in the World Cup.Veteran defender Nicolas Otamendi and midfielder Enzo Fernandez,21, are also away with Argentina in Qatar. In their absence, Rafa Silva, is expected to spearhead the attack with Petar Musa, 24, and former Ajax players David Neres. At the center Diogo Goncalves is probably going to start with Florentino Luis and Chiquinho. As for Estrela center-back Gaspar is currently on international duty with his country, Angola, resulting in experienced defender Miguel Lopes probably completing the back four. A player to watch is definitely Paulinho who has been an excellent performer for Estrela this season. The promising 23-year-old striker has netted the ball eight goals in nine Liga Portugal2 matches. He is expected to start today after having started off the bench against Oliveirense in the hosts' most recent match. They played very well in this match winning 1-0 at home and only allowed the visitors two shots on target and could easily have won by a bigger margin.

Before the Oliveirense match Estrela took a fine win away from home against BSAD 3-1 as underdogs according to the bookies. Solid defending is needed today as Benfica will almost certainly control the ball for the most of the time. The hosts will probably have to rely on fast counter attacks, free kicks, corners or a possible penalty kick to score here. Estrela have have had a good defensive structure in Liga Portugal2 so far this season and have allowed just 14 goals. They currently occupy the 3rd place with 22 points to their account and are in the fight to be promoted to the highest level for next season – top-2 teams are promoted directly. They have lost just one game in the league so far and seem to be high in confidence. According to my sources they also have a great team spirit. They coach, Sergio Vieira,39, is also a talented guy and is good at organizing a solid defense. Furthermore, Estrela have not lost any of their latest five games.The betting market estimates that the goal expectancy in this clash is approximately 3.20 but I would set the number at only around 2.70 goals. The hosts will probably not take big risks even if they end up trailing by one goal. The +2.5 goals handicap is a massive one for the home who have an over 70% chance to avoid a defeat by more than two goals' difference! This is a massive game for them and their loud home fans - Estrela are surely the more motivated team here. They have, of course, not faced a team of Benfica's caliber for a long time but I still want to highlight that the last time they lost by more than even one goal's difference was on the 30th of April! Benfica have been in awesome form lately as well and have not suffered a defeat in Liga Portugal and top the standings at the moment with a whopping 37 points to their account. Yes, they have been strong but we must remember that in terms of expected points they would have deserved only 32 or 33 points. This might be one of the reasons behind the over-valuation here.. For amateur bettors it is easy to go with a famous team with top.class players that they watch on tv regularly in this kind of matches but especially a -2.5 goals' handicap – not to mention bigger than that - for the away team is according to long-term data almost never a good idea!

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埃斯特拉VS本菲卡

北京时间周一凌晨，埃斯特雷拉在莱利亚的Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa欢迎本菲卡，在Estádio João Cardoso进行联赛杯第一轮的比赛。当然，毫无疑问，本菲卡在这里是非常受欢迎的球队，在比赛的各个方面都有明显的优势。波尔图和里斯本竞技是葡萄牙最大的俱乐部之一，甚至在今年秋天的欧冠联赛中也踢得不错。在博彩市场上，他们赢这场比赛的赔率是1.25左右，但我不会说他们赢的可能性不像目前赔率显示的那样大。他们的赔率从一开始就在上升，因为聪明的钱似乎在东道主身上堆积。我认为本菲卡有70%的机会赢球。我们不能忘记联赛杯对他们来说并不是最重要的，甚至不是最重要的。即便如此，他们的阵容中当然没有糟糕的球员。事实上，我确实希望本菲卡的优秀教练，德国人罗杰·施密特能轮换他的阵容，甚至可能是大量轮换。他肯定想给那些前途无量的年轻球员和最近没怎么踢球的球员一个机会来证明他们的技术。此外，本菲卡将不得不忍受失去安东尼奥·席尔瓦、前国际米兰前锋马里奥以及拉莫斯的痛苦，他们都将代表葡萄牙征战世界杯。经验丰富的后卫尼古拉斯·奥塔门迪和21岁的中场恩佐·费尔南德斯也将随阿根廷队前往卡塔尔。在他们缺席的情况下，拉法·席尔瓦有望与24岁的佩塔尔·穆萨和前阿贾克斯球员大卫·内勒斯一起带头进攻。在中锋位置上，迪奥戈·贡萨尔维斯可能会与弗洛伦蒂诺·路易斯和奇基尼奥一起首发。至于埃斯特雷拉的中后卫加斯帕尔目前正在代表他的国家安哥拉参加国际比赛，因此经验丰富的后卫米格尔·洛佩斯可能会完成四后卫的任务。一个值得关注的球员肯定是保利尼奥，他本赛季在埃斯特拉表现出色。这位前途无量的23岁前锋在葡甲联赛的9场比赛中打进8球。他有望在今天首发，因为他在最近一场主场对阵奥利弗伦斯的比赛中替补出场。他们在这场比赛中踢得非常好，在主场1-0取胜，只让客队射正了2次，本可以轻松赢得更大的比分。

在与奥利弗伦斯的比赛之前，埃斯特拉在客场3-1击败了BSAD。坚实的防守是今天所需要的，因为本菲卡几乎肯定会在大部分时间里控制球权。东道主很可能要依靠快速反击、任意球、角球或可能的点球来进球。本赛季到目前为止，埃斯特拉在葡甲有着良好的防守结构，只丢了14球。他们目前以22分排名第三，正在为下赛季的最高级别联赛而奋斗——排名前二的球队会直接升级。到目前为止，他们在联赛中只输了一场比赛，而且看起来信心十足。根据我的消息来源，他们也有伟大的团队精神。他们的教练，39岁的维埃拉也是一个天才，善于组织坚固的防守。此外，埃斯特拉在最近的五场比赛中没有输过一场。博彩市场估计这场比赛的进球数大约是3.20球，但我认为只有2.70球左右。东道主可能不会冒太大的风险，即使他们最后只落后一球。+2.5球是一个巨大的障碍，主场有超过70%的机会避免失败超过两个球的差距!对他们和他们吵闹的主场球迷来说，这是一场重要的比赛——埃斯特拉肯定是更有动力的球队。当然，他们已经很长时间没有面对本菲卡这样的球队了，但我仍然想强调的是，他们上一次输掉超过1球的比分还是在4月30日!本菲卡最近的状态也很好，在葡萄牙的西甲联赛中没有输过一场，目前他们以37分的高分高居积分榜榜首。是的，他们一直很强大，但我们必须记住，就预期积分而言，他们只应该得到32或33分。这可能是这里估值过高的原因之一。对于业余投注者来说，很容易与一支拥有顶级球员的著名球队下注，他们经常在电视上观看这类比赛，但特别是-2.5球的不利条件——更不用说了——根据长期数据，对客场球队来说几乎从来都不是一个好主意!