Tondela VS Estoril

Tondela and Estoril lock horns in this League Cup round 1 clash at Estádio João Cardoso early Sunday morning Beijing time. The host were relegated from Liga Portugal to Liga Portugal2 for this season. It was unarguably not a good season but we must not forget that grabbing just a few more points would have saved them.. They managed to take a total of 28 points last season. Estoril, on the other hand, had a better season and ended the season with 39 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS)they would have deserved just 34 points. At the moment Tondela are in 10th place in Liga Portugal2 with a goal difference of 17:13. They have 18 points to their pocket – just four points less than Estrela in 3rd place. In terms of xPTS they would have deserved 23 points! This might, in part explain the under-valuation on the betting market here.. The biggest sharpest bookies with the highest betting limits estimate that the goal expectancy here is approximately 2.20 but I set the number at only 1.95 goals. The probability of a draw – even 0-0 would not be a big surprise - here is high – 33%. This would be enough for my fans and me to win. I think there is no favorite in this match and with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap the chance of winning is 66%.

Tondela play well-structure and often pretty cautious football – even at Estádio João Cardoso especially against opponent who are more skilled than them. Estoril definitely meet this criteria and they can really hurt the opponents on fast-counter attacks.. The 13 goals Tondela have conceded in Liga Portugal is a low number – it is, in fact, lower than that of Moreirense who currently top the standings. Their offense has, however, lacked speed, creativity and structure so far so it will surely not be easy to break Estoril's defense despite the fact that their defense had been shaky lately and have allowed a whopping nine goals in their m lost recent three games.. There is no doubt about the fact that Estoril are the better team – they have an edge in all areas of the game. Having said that I want to mention that I expect their coach to rotate the squad here as League Cup is not the main priority for Estoril this season. For the hosts, on the other hand, this is a big game and a large number of home fans are expected at Estádio João Cardoso today. As a result, the home advantage is substantial They are probably to more motivated team here. Moreover, Estoril are in very bad form at the moment. They have lost four of their most recent five matches and taken one draw. They were disappointing in their most recent match and lost to Santa Clara 1-3 away from home despite 65% ball possession. This percentage may look impressive but most of the possession they had was on their of side of the pitch.. Indeed, they recorded just one shot on the hosts' target. Before this they lost to Benfica twice in a row. Benfica, of course, are a strong team though. On the 9th of this month they lost 0-1 in Taca de Portugal 1/16-finals and the visitors could have taken a much more clear win as they recorded much more ball possession, shots on goal, scoring attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. Three days earlier they were humiliated 1-5 – also at home. The hosts are not in that great form either but have lost just one of their latest five games and only two of their most recent 15 matches. In their most recent match, they played well as underdogs according to the bookies against Moreirense and took a 1-1 draw. They had the scoring chances to win but overall it was a balanced battle.