Grimsby VS Stevenage

Grimsby welcome Stevenage for this League Two round 19 battle at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is only the fourth-highest level of English football but players are still professional footballers. Furthermore, League Two is definitely the best 4th tier on the planet. Most teams play pretty straightforward, physical football and that is what I expect here as well. The betting market estimates that the goal expectancy here is approximately 2.15 but I set the number at only 2.01 goals. The probability of a draw – even 0-0 would not be a major surprise - here is higher than on average in this league – 32%. This would be enough for my fans and me to extend the good run of 5/6 latest picks on this league won! I see the hosts as slim favorites and with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option the chance of winning is 69%. Grimsby play well-organized and often pretty cautious football– even at Blundell Park especially against dangerous teams. Stevenage definitely meet the criteria for a a dangerous team and they can really hurt the opponents through fast-counter attacks. Lets hope the hots will not allow them many of those today. Grimsby have had a solid defense this season and have allowed just 17 goals – just two more than the visitors. Offensively their coach does have lot of work to do though as they have netted the ball just 19 times so far this season. I do believe they can improve a bit in this area of the game but Stevenage unarguably have more firepower. They have scored 25 goals.

The hosts were promoted from National League, 5th tier, for this season. They had a strong last season and should have the potential the to be in top-12 in League Two as well despite being a pretty small team by players total market value according to Transfermarkt.com a famous German website who estimates that their squad is worth just 1.45 million euros. This is massively too low a number and I would set the market value at around 2.5 million! At least four promising young players are under-valued. They play great as a team and according to my sources also have a great team spirit. The bookies should respect them more.They have grabbed 23 points so but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 27 points. Indeed, they have been unlucky in many matches. For example in their most recent match they faced Doncaster at home and lost 1-3 despite 63% ball possession. Overall, the match was a balanced one and I would say a draw would have been a justified result. Stevenage have started the season surprising well and are in second place in the standings with 39 points in the pocket. I have, as a result, raised their power rating that illustrates the teams pure class but I do not believe they have a very good chance to finish in top-4. In terms of xPTS they would have deserved just 32 points! The bookies have got carried away by their start to the season and we must take advantage of this. Let's not forget that last season they were close to relegating as they ended up in the 21st place with just 47 points and an abysmal score difference of 45:68..

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格里姆斯比VS斯蒂夫尼奇

北京时间周六晚间，格里姆斯比欢迎斯蒂夫尼奇参加在克利索普斯布伦德尔公园举行的英乙第19轮比赛。这只是英国足球的第四高级别，但球员仍然是职业足球运动员。此外，英乙绝对是这个星球上最好的第四级联赛。大多数球队踢得很直接，身体对抗，这也是我在这里所期望的。博彩市场估计这里的预期进球大约是2.15个，但我设定的数字只有2.01个。平局的概率——即使是0-0也不是什么大意外——比这个联盟的平均水平高32%。这将足以让我的粉丝和我延续5/6的最新选择在这个联盟中获胜!我认为东道主的胜算不大，加上推荐的+0.5进球数，获胜几率为69%。格里姆斯比踢得很有组织，而且经常非常谨慎——即使是在布伦德尔公园球场，尤其是面对危险的球队。斯蒂夫尼奇绝对符合一支危险球队的标准，他们可以通过快速反击伤害对手。让我们希望热点今天不会允许他们这样做。格里姆斯比本赛季防守稳固，只丢了17球——只比客队多2球。在进攻方面，他们的教练确实有很多工作要做，因为他们本赛季到目前为止只有19次进球。我相信他们可以在这方面有所提高，但是斯蒂夫尼奇毫无疑问拥有更强的火力。他们已经进了25球。

本赛季，东道主从第五层级的国家联盟(National League)升班马。据德国著名网站Transfermarkt.com估计，他们上赛季表现强劲，应该有潜力进入英乙联赛前12名，尽管从球员总市值来看，他们是一支相当小的球队，但他们的阵容价值仅为145万欧元。这是一个非常低的数字，我认为市场价值在250万美元左右!至少有4名有前途的年轻球员被低估了。根据我的消息来源，他们作为一个团队打得很好，也有很好的团队精神。博彩公司应该更加尊重他们。他们已经拿到了23分，但从预期积分(xPTS)来看，他们应该得到27分。事实上，他们在很多比赛中都不走运。例如，在最近的一场比赛中，他们主场对阵唐卡斯特，尽管有63%的控球率，他们还是以1-3输掉了比赛。总的来说，这场比赛是一场势均力敌的比赛，我想说平局会是一个合理的结果。本赛季开始时，斯蒂夫尼奇的表现令人惊讶，他们以39分的积分位列积分榜第二。因此，我提高了他们的功率等级，这说明了车队的纯级别，但我不相信他们有很好的机会进入前四。在xPTS方面，他们只应该得到32分!赌马的人已经被赛季的开始冲昏了头脑，我们必须利用这一点。我们不要忘记上赛季他们差点降级，最终他们以47分排在第21位，比分是45:68。