In my opinion Fiorentina is really overrated in this match up. +1.5 AH on Salernitana looks like very good bet. Simply I don't see their big loss today.

I believe Salernitana have huge advantage in fitness department before today's game. For them it's 6th match since 6th October. On the other hand for Fiorentina is already 10th match (!!!). It's huge difference especially at this stage of the season. It's not adjusted in odds at all.

Fiorentina won last 4 matches in a row in all competitions, they never recorded longer streak with Vincenzo Italiano on the bench. Obviously, on the paper this run looks very good, but they played against two poor opponents in Conference League and against two teams from relegation zone in Serie A. In last match they won on away against Sampdoria, but that wasn't convincing at all: expected goals scored for Fiorentina 0.90, for Sampdoria 0.78.

After 13 rounds Salernitana is one point above Fiorentina in league table and they coming for this game full of confidence. They didn't lost in 4 of last 5 matches (they lost only against Inter on away). In last away match they recorded big win on away against Lazio. Currently they don't have any problems with goalscoring - 5 goals scored in last two league matches.

Fiorentina lost last two consecutive home matches in Serie A. In addition to that they failed to win in any of last 8 Serie A matches played at Wednesday. On those circumstances I see really good value on away side.

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在我看来，佛罗伦萨在这场比赛中被高估了。萨勒尼塔纳+1.5 AH看起来是一个很好的赌注。我看不出他们今天有什么大损失。

我相信在今天的比赛之前，萨勒尼塔纳在体能方面有巨大的优势。对他们来说，这是自10月6日以来的第6场比赛。另一方面，佛罗伦萨已经是第10场比赛了(!!)这是巨大的差异，特别是在赛季的这个阶段。完全没有调整过赔率。

佛罗伦萨在最近的4场比赛中赢得了所有赛事的连胜，他们从来没有在文森佐·意大利利亚诺坐在替补席上的情况下有过这么长的连胜记录。显然，从纸面上看，这轮比赛看起来非常不错，但他们在联赛中遇到了两个糟糕的对手，在意甲联赛中还遇到了两支来自降级区的球队。上一场比赛，他们客场战胜了桑普多利亚，但这一点都不令人信服:佛罗伦萨的预期进球数为0.90，桑普多利亚为0.78。

13轮过后，萨勒尼塔纳在积分榜上领先佛罗伦萨1分，他们满怀信心地迎接这场比赛。他们在最近的5场比赛中有4场没有输(他们只在客场输给了国米)。在上一场客场对阵拉齐奥的比赛中，他们取得了大胜。目前他们在进球方面没有任何问题——最近两场联赛打进5球。

佛罗伦萨在意甲的最近两场主场比赛都输掉了。除此之外，在周三进行的最近8场意甲比赛中，他们一场都没赢。在这种情况下，我认为客场很有价值。