Lugo VS FC Cartagena

Lugo welcome Cartagena for this LaLiga2 round 15 clash at Estadio Anxo Carro early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards. The difference compared to the first tier, LaLiga, the 2nd best league on the planet is big though.. This is a pretty low-scoring league and even a goalless draw would not be a surprise here! The biggest, sharpest bookies with the biggest betting limits estimate the goal expectancy here at around 2.10 but I say the number of expected goals is lower – 1.90. Just one of Lugo latest six games – and one of Cartagena's most recent five matches have gone over the 2.5 total goals line. They usually play quite defensive, sometimes even cautious football away from home. If they score the opening goal here I believe they will defend hard and allow Lugo very few dangerous scoring chances..The probability of a draw is high here – 34%. This result would be enough for my fans and me to win yet another bet on Spanish football! We will side with the visitors with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The chance of winning is 75%

The betting market sees the visitors as very narrow favorites but I cannot agree with this estimation! In my view they have a 42% chance of winning. They have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. Especially their offense is much better than the of the hosts Their attackers and midfielders are much more creative and the offensive structure is also more solid than Lugo's! They have score 18 goals so far but in terms of expected goals the correct number would be 20. Their defense is solid too but I think they should improve a bit in this area to fight for a top-4 position. They are in the 5th place in my power ratings that reflects the teams' pure class. Cartagena currently occupy the 6th place with 24 points but would have deserved 27 points in terms of expected points(xPTS). For example on the 30th of last month they were unlucky not to beat a dangerous team Granada at home despite having 58% ball possession and creating four shots on target. Cartagena defended extremely well in this clash and the visitors failed to record a single shot on their goal.

Lugo currently occupy the 19th place in this league with a total of 22 teams. They have grabbed just 13 points and have a weak score difference – 14:18. They have won just one of their latest 10 matches and were seriously dominated by Eibar in their most recent game. Eibar won just 1-0 but could easily have won by two or even three goals' difference. Indeed, they recorded much more than Lugo in expected goals and also had 71% ball possession as well as whopping 18 scoring attempts. Before this they were very lame offensively at home against Mirandes as favorites according to the bookies. The visitors had 58% ball possession and Lugo only managed one shot on the visitors' goal. Cartagena, on the other hand, were excellent in their most recent match recording 72% ball possession beat Malaga 2-1 at home. They could easily have taken a more clear win as they recorded much more goal attempts(20-5), goal attempts(7-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Lugo are not a particularly strong home team. Cartagena, on the other hand, seem to play well on the road and have taken 10 points and have a score difference of 7:5 away from home.