In my opinion Real Madrid win is the most logical choice here.

It's not 'classic' away match because Rayo Vallecano stadium is in Madrid. In addition to that Real have superb streak against them as they won 13 of last 14 matches against Rayo, so why not today?

Real Madrid coming for this game without 3 important players: Rudiger, Kroos and Benzema, but they have really great depth in their squad and today's line up even without them still looks incredibly strong. Two matches left till World Cup break and if Real wants stay on first place, they have to win both matches. In last round match Real failed to win against Girona (1:1) - they missed so many chances, according to the expected goals scored model they should score 2.59. Looks like manager Carlo Ancelotti fixed that issue because in the midweek they scored 5 goals against Celtic in Champions League. I believe teams is full of confidence once again and we can expect another high quality performance today.

Obviously, Rayo is dangerous team - they didn't lost in last 4 consecutive matches, but they not playing so good. They had some lucky late goals, red cards for opponents or undeserved results like in last round against out-of-form Sevilla. Rayo won 1:0 on away, but that wasn't fully deserved result: expected goals scored for Sevilla 1.24, for Rayo 0.72. In addition to that today they are without two important midfielders Pozo & Nteka and key striker Falcao.

Rayo simply not belong to the level where Real is and guests with big motivation to win have all required tools to make 3 points.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，皇马的胜利是最合理的选择。

这不是一场“经典”的客场比赛，因为巴列卡诺球场在马德里。除此之外，皇马在过去14场对阵拉约的比赛中赢了13场，所以为什么今天不赢呢?

皇马在这场比赛中缺席了3名重要球员:鲁迪格、克罗斯和本泽马，但他们的阵容确实很有深度，今天的阵容即使没有他们，看起来仍然非常强大。离世界杯休息还有两场比赛，如果皇马想保持第一，他们必须赢下两场比赛。上一轮皇马没有赢赫罗纳(1:1)——他们错过了太多机会，根据预期进球数模型，他们应该进2.59球。看来主教练安切洛蒂已经解决了这个问题，因为在周中他们在欧冠对阵凯尔特人的比赛中打进了5球。我相信球队再次充满信心，我们可以期待今天又一个高质量的表现。

很明显，拉约是一支危险的球队——他们在过去的连续4场比赛中都没有输球，但是他们踢得不是很好。他们在比赛最后阶段有一些幸运的进球，给对手吃红牌，或者像上一轮对阵状态不佳的塞维利亚那样不应有的结果。拉约客场1:0取胜，但这并不是完全值得的结果:塞维利亚进1.24球，拉约进0.72球。除此之外，今天他们失去了两名重要的中场球员波佐和安普;恩特卡和主力前锋法尔考。

拉约根本不属于皇马的水平，而有强烈获胜动机的客人有所有需要的工具来拿3分。